287
FXUS63 KMPX 091136
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
536 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX ENDS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN & FAR-
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING.
- LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT & AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE INCH.
- COOLER THIS WEEKEND, BUT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
DEW POINTS & TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED 2-3 DEGREES TOO WARM
FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, SO WE'VE SEEN MAINLY WET WEATHER
WITH THE DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO
DISSIPATE OVER FAR-SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN.
STILL CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN AT TIMES EARLY THIS
MORNING, BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM, BUT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM BACK UP TO NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING BY LATE AFTERNOON
AS WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS.
MOST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DEPICT A NARROW BAND OF SNOW
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING, BUT THE
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY ACCUMULATION OF AROUND HALF AN INCH WILL BE
ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN. MORE SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING AS THE WRAP-AROUND
REGION FROM THIS SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE AREA, BUT AGAIN, ANY
ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY BE ON THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH OR LESS.
TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT,
BUT STILL END UP AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 20S.
WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN BY MONDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, & GENERALLY STICKS AROUND THROUGH THE
WEEK OUTSIDE OF AN EXPECTED SHORTWAVE & COOL-DOWN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. WHILE WE'LL HAVE STRONG FORCING ALOFT, THERE JUST
ISN'T MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS A MOISTURE-BLOCKING REGION
OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. MIXED-
PRECIPITATION COULD AGAIN BE AN ISSUE DEPENDING ON THE TIME OF
DAY THE PRECIP FALLS, BUT ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
MAIN UNCERTAINTY THIS MORNING DEALS WITH HOW LONG MVFR CIGS
LINGER IN WESTERN WI. ALL MN TERMINALS ARE VFR AND ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY THAT WAY TODAY, THOUGH IT'S WI WHERE MVFR CIGS LOOK TO
BE STUBBORN AND WE CURRENTLY FORECAST THEM TO HANG AROUND UNTIL
WINDS AT RNH & EAU FLIP AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BE APPROACHING AXN NEAR SUNSET, MSP NEAR MIDNIGHT, AND
CLEARING EAU AROUND 3AM OR 4AM. THE HRRR AND MOST OTHER CAMS
SHOW A NARROW BAND OF SNOW ACCOMPANYING THIS COLD FRONT, WHICH
EXPLAINS THE PROB30S FOR -SN WE ADDED TO STC, MSP, RNH, & EAU.
KMSP...BASED ON RAP SOUNDINGS, YOU CAN'T RULE OUT AN MVFR
STRATOCU FIELD DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AS MIXING DEEPENS, BUT
SIDED WITH HREF MVFR CIG PROBABILITIES, WHICH SHOWS ONLY SOME
LOW MVFR PROBABILITIES IN WI TODAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR. CHC IFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-20 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS BCMG SW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS BCMG W 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...MPG
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