972
FXUS63 KMPX 091749
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1149 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX ENDS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN & FAR-
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING.
- LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT & AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE INCH.
- COOLER THIS WEEKEND, BUT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
DEW POINTS & TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED 2-3 DEGREES TOO WARM
FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, SO WE'VE SEEN MAINLY WET WEATHER
WITH THE DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO
DISSIPATE OVER FAR-SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN.
STILL CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN AT TIMES EARLY THIS
MORNING, BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM, BUT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM BACK UP TO NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING BY LATE AFTERNOON
AS WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS.
MOST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DEPICT A NARROW BAND OF SNOW
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING, BUT THE
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY ACCUMULATION OF AROUND HALF AN INCH WILL BE
ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN. MORE SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING AS THE WRAP-AROUND
REGION FROM THIS SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE AREA, BUT AGAIN, ANY
ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY BE ON THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH OR LESS.
TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT,
BUT STILL END UP AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 20S.
WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN BY MONDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, & GENERALLY STICKS AROUND THROUGH THE
WEEK OUTSIDE OF AN EXPECTED SHORTWAVE & COOL-DOWN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. WHILE WE'LL HAVE STRONG FORCING ALOFT, THERE JUST
ISN'T MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS A MOISTURE-BLOCKING REGION
OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. MIXED-
PRECIPITATION COULD AGAIN BE AN ISSUE DEPENDING ON THE TIME OF
DAY THE PRECIP FALLS, BUT ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
ALL SITES HAVE GONE VFR, WITH WI TERMINALS CLEARING OUT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING AXN NEAR SUNSET, MSP NEAR MIDNIGHT, AND CLEARING EAU
AROUND 3AM OR 4AM. GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A
NARROW BAND OF SNOW ACCOMPANYING THIS COLD FRONT, WHICH IS
REFLECTED IN THE CORRESPONDING TEMPO GROUPS AT STC, MSP, AND
RNH. LESS CERTAINTY IN TIMING LED TO THE UPHOLDING OF A PROB30
AT EAU FOR THIS SNOW BAND.
KMSP...BRIEF BOUT OF SNOW ON TRACK FOR THE 05-07Z TIMEFRAME THIS
EVENING, WITH VIS DROPS TO 2-3SM. OTHERWISE, VFR CIGS UNTIL A
LESS CERTAIN CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING USHERS IN
AN MVFR DECK. WINDS MOSTLY AOB 10KTS TODAY, INCREASING AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR. CHC IFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-20 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS BCMG SW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS BCMG W 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...PV
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