621
FXUS63 KMPX 091953
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
153 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW LATE THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW MORNING, BEST
CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATION IN WESTERN WISCONSIN.
- VARIABLE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER (NEAR
NORMAL) TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND, WARMER THAN NORMAL TO START
THE NEXT WEEK, AND THEN A RETURN TO COOLER (NEAR NORMAL) TO
MID TO LATE WEEK.
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
CLEARER THAN EXPECTED SKIES TODAY HAVE ALLOWED FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
THIS WILL ALL START TO CHANGE THIS EVENING, AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. ALONG THIS COLD FRONT
WILL BE A QUICK HIT OF SNOWFALL. MOST LIKELY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
UNDER A HALF INCH FOR MOST IN MINNESOTA. IN WESTERN WISCONSIN
SATURATION WILL BE BETTER AND THIS SATURATION COULD REACH INTO
THE DGZ TO ALLOW FOR MORE EFFICIENT SNOW GENERATION. THEREFORE
WESTERN WISCONSIN HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATION OF SNOW
WITH UP TO AROUND AN INCH EXPECTED. BEHIND THE FRONT THERE COULD
BE ENOUGH SHALLOW SATURATION TO ALLOW FOR SOME FLURRIES. LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THESE FLURRIES DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER, BUT NEAR NORMAL, SATURDAY.
NORMALS RIGHT NOW ARE RIGHT AROUND THE COLDEST POINT OF THE
YEAR, SO HIGHS ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S SATURDAY.
SUNDAY WILL START TO SEE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION COME TO AN END
AND TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S (MAINLY ALONG THE SNOW FREE BUFFALO RIDGE).
WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN FOR THE START OF WEEK UNTIL A REGION OF
MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 40S
(MAYBE PUSHING 50) EXPECTED ACROSS SNOW FREE AREAS. AREAS WITH
A SNOWPACK WILL MELT A LOT OF SNOW AND STAY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S. COOLER AIR RETURNS MID TO LATE WEEK AFTER THE
FIRST CLIPPER ON TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THIS ONE LOOKS TO KEEP US
ON THE WARMER SIDE, SO LITTLE SNOW EXPECTED. THE COLD AIR LOOKS
TO STICK AROUND AFTER THIS FIRST CLIPPER SUCH THAT THE SECOND
CLIPPER ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE ALL SNOW. TRACK UNCERTAINTIES THIS
FAR OUT KEEP DETAILS UNCERTAIN, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A TYPICAL
UPPER MIDWEST CLIPPER. EVEN THIS COOLER AIR LOOKS TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES STILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE LACK OF
SNOWPACK BY THE PART OF THE FORECAST KEEPS THE MOST LIKELY
TEMPERATURES ON THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL. GETTING BACK TO
STAYING ON THE COOLER SIDE WOULD NEED TO BUILD A BETTER SNOWPACK
OR A SOURCE OF STRONG CAA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
ALL SITES HAVE GONE VFR, WITH WI TERMINALS CLEARING OUT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING AXN NEAR SUNSET, MSP NEAR MIDNIGHT, AND CLEARING EAU
AROUND 3AM OR 4AM. GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A
NARROW BAND OF SNOW ACCOMPANYING THIS COLD FRONT, WHICH IS
REFLECTED IN THE CORRESPONDING TEMPO GROUPS AT STC, MSP, AND
RNH. LESS CERTAINTY IN TIMING LED TO THE UPHOLDING OF A PROB30
AT EAU FOR THIS SNOW BAND.
KMSP...BRIEF BOUT OF SNOW ON TRACK FOR THE 05-07Z TIMEFRAME THIS
EVENING, WITH VIS DROPS TO 2-3SM. OTHERWISE, VFR CIGS UNTIL A
LESS CERTAIN CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING USHERS IN
AN MVFR DECK. WINDS MOSTLY AOB 10KTS TODAY, INCREASING AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR. CHC IFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-20 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS BCMG SW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS BCMG W 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...PV
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