821
FXUS63 KMPX 100326
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
926 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW LATE THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW MORNING, BEST
CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATION IN WESTERN WISCONSIN.
- VARIABLE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER (NEAR
NORMAL) TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND, WARMER THAN NORMAL TO START
THE NEXT WEEK, AND THEN A RETURN TO COOLER (NEAR NORMAL) TO
MID TO LATE WEEK.
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 915 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
9PM MPX RADAR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL MN. OPTED TO ISSUE AN SPS
FOR POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS TRAVEL THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF FALLING SNOW/VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AND A QUICK
DUSTING TO HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATION. BOOSTED POPS WELL ABOVE
BLENDED GUIDANCE THIS EVENING TO CAPTURE THE HIGH POP/LOWER QPF
NATURE OF THE SNOWFALL. 00Z MPX RAOB & LATEST ACARS DATA FROM
MSP AIRPORT DEPICT A SUBSTANTIAL WEDGE OF DRY AIR BELOW 600MB,
SO THERE IS SOME QUESTION TO HOW EFFICIENT SNOW BAND WILL BE AS
IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. HOWEVER, WITH SEVERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS REPORTING VISIBILITY NEAR OR BLOW 1 MILE BENEATH
THE BAND ACROSS WESTERN MN, FELT IT WAS APPROPRIATE TO ADDRESS
AN EVOLVING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL SCENARIO.
THE BAND OF SNOW WILL ADVANCE EAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF A HALF INCH, BUT NOT MORE THAN AN INCH,
WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN WI WHERE MODELS ADVERTISE DEEPER
SATURATION. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW AND
WILL GUST UPWARDS OF 25-30KTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER-LOW IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTH THROUGH
CENTRAL WI TOMORROW, WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT NECESSARY FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF I-35 (EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI). NOT
LOOKING FOR A LOT OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION, THOUGH
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND A QUICK DUSTING WILL BE POSSIBLE
BENEATH THE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS THE TYPE OF
SCENARIO THAT IS OFTEN POORLY HANDLED BY THE CAMS, BUT THE
PRESENCE OF THE UPPER VORT MAX IN THE VICINITY SEEMS TO PRODUCE
SNOW SHOWERS MORE TIMES THAN NOT. WITH THIS IN MIND, HAVE
BOOSTED SATURDAY'S POPS ACROSS EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI TO 30-40
PERCENT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL END WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER-
LOW TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES HEADING INTO SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
CLEARER THAN EXPECTED SKIES TODAY HAVE ALLOWED FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
THIS WILL ALL START TO CHANGE THIS EVENING, AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. ALONG THIS COLD FRONT
WILL BE A QUICK HIT OF SNOWFALL. MOST LIKELY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
UNDER A HALF INCH FOR MOST IN MINNESOTA. IN WESTERN WISCONSIN
SATURATION WILL BE BETTER AND THIS SATURATION COULD REACH INTO
THE DGZ TO ALLOW FOR MORE EFFICIENT SNOW GENERATION. THEREFORE
WESTERN WISCONSIN HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATION OF SNOW
WITH UP TO AROUND AN INCH EXPECTED. BEHIND THE FRONT THERE COULD
BE ENOUGH SHALLOW SATURATION TO ALLOW FOR SOME FLURRIES. LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THESE FLURRIES DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER, BUT NEAR NORMAL, SATURDAY.
NORMALS RIGHT NOW ARE RIGHT AROUND THE COLDEST POINT OF THE
YEAR, SO HIGHS ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S SATURDAY.
SUNDAY WILL START TO SEE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION COME TO AN END
AND TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S (MAINLY ALONG THE SNOW FREE BUFFALO RIDGE).
WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN FOR THE START OF WEEK UNTIL A REGION OF
MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 40S
(MAYBE PUSHING 50) EXPECTED ACROSS SNOW FREE AREAS. AREAS WITH
A SNOWPACK WILL MELT A LOT OF SNOW AND STAY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S. COOLER AIR RETURNS MID TO LATE WEEK AFTER THE
FIRST CLIPPER ON TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THIS ONE LOOKS TO KEEP US
ON THE WARMER SIDE, SO LITTLE SNOW EXPECTED. THE COLD AIR LOOKS
TO STICK AROUND AFTER THIS FIRST CLIPPER SUCH THAT THE SECOND
CLIPPER ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE ALL SNOW. TRACK UNCERTAINTIES THIS
FAR OUT KEEP DETAILS UNCERTAIN, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A TYPICAL
UPPER MIDWEST CLIPPER. EVEN THIS COOLER AIR LOOKS TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES STILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE LACK OF
SNOWPACK BY THE PART OF THE FORECAST KEEPS THE MOST LIKELY
TEMPERATURES ON THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL. GETTING BACK TO
STAYING ON THE COOLER SIDE WOULD NEED TO BUILD A BETTER SNOWPACK
OR A SOURCE OF STRONG CAA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI TERMINALS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
CAPTURES AN UPTICK IN ECHOES ACROSS WESTERN MN, THOUGH HIGH CLOUD
BASES AND A WEDGE OF DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SNOWFLAKES AT RWF AND MKT. BETTER SATURATION COMBINED WITH FRONTAL
FORCING WILL ALLOW FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR
VISIBILITY AT AXN, STC, MSP, RNH AND EAU. STILL LOOKS LIKE A
DUSTING AT MOST AT AXN, STC AND MSP AND BETTER CHANCE FOR A HALF
INCH TO INCH AT RNH AND EAU. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INTENSIFY
TOMORROW (GUSTS 25-30 KTS) AND WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. MVFR VISIBILITY
AND QUICK, BUT MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE THE STORY WITHIN
THESE SHOWERS.
KMSP...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE 00Z TAF, AS THE 5-7Z PERIOD IS
STILL THE MOST FAVORED TIME FRAME FOR MVFR VISIBILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH SNOW SHOWERS. MOST PROBABLE ACCUMULATION SCENARIO IS A
TRACE TO A LIGHT DUSTING. MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL TOMORROW, ALONG
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF MVFR SNOW
SHOWERS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS BCMG SW 5-10KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND SW 5-10KTS.
TUE...MVFR. WIND SW 10-15G20KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
UPDATE...STRUS
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...STRUS
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