604
FXUS63 KMPX 101136
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
536 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS & SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
TODAY.
- WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY & TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARDS ACROSS
MINNESOTA & INTO WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT, WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
AROUND HALF AN INCH OR LESS CAUSING JUST ENOUGH ACCUMULATION TO
CREATE SOME SLICK SPOTS ON UNTREATED SURFACES. SATELLITE SHOWS
SKIES QUICKLY CLEARING BEHIND THIS BAND OF SNOW AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FALLING
THROUGH THE MORNING AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES BEHIND THE
FRONT, BUT CLOUDS & SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL RETURN BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MOVES
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION FROM THE
SNOW TODAY, JUST PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW LEADING TO ANOTHER
DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH. ONE THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON WILL BE THE
WIND GUSTS TODAY, AS NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE TENDENCY TO
OVERACHIEVE GUIDANCE IN COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIMES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON & EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA. THE
WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH THE LIGHT SNOW COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS OF WESTERN
MINNESOTA.
WE'VE ALREADY REACHED OUT HIGHS FOR THE DAY AS THE COLD
ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY AROUND 20 DEGREES.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY CLEARING
SKIES & SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, BUT THE REAL WARM-UP COMES MONDAY
& TUESDAY WHEN RIDGING PEAKS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S LOOK LIKELY & COULD EASILY REACH THE
50S ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF OF
THE BUFFALO RIDGE TYPICALLY BOOST TEMPERATURES BY SEVERAL
DEGREES.
LOOKING AHEAD, MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT A PATTERN OF NUMEROUS
CLIPPERS & WEAK DISTURBANCES FOLLOWING THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. NONE OF THESE LOOK TO BE MAJORLY IMPACTFUL SYSTEMS AS A
MOISTURE-BLOCKING REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX OF ICE, SNOW, & RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY HOVERING AROUND FREEZING DURING THE TIMES
OF PRECIPITATION. EVENTUALLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH
AMPLIFIED FLOW OVER THE REGION TRANSITIONS TO DEEP TROUGHING,
LEADING TO A RETURN TO WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FIRST TIME SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
SKIES MAY BE MOSTLY CLEAR NOW, BUT A BANK OF MVFR STRATUS JUST
NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL MN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE MPX
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. BESIDES MVFR CIGS, THERE'S PLENTY OF
SNOW BEING REPORTED IN THESE CLOUDS, WITH VISIBILITIES GENERALLY
BETWEEN 4SM AND 8SM IN THE LIGHT SNOW, THOUGH WE HAVE SEEN
OCCASIONAL VISIBILITY DOWN 1 3/4SM. GIVEN WHAT WE'RE SEEING
UPSTREAM, KEPT THE LONG PROB30S FOR -SN THAT WE ALREADY HAD IN
THE TAFS GOING FOR THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY
IS WITH HOW QUICKLY WE START TO SEE THE STRATUS SHIELD ERODE.
AFTER 6Z, WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME WHOLE BREAK OPEN IN THE
STRATUS, BUT PRONOUNCE CLEARING IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY. AT 12Z SUN, THAT
RIDGE AXIS IS JUST MOVING INTO WESTERN MN. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WINDS AND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK UP IN INTENSITY, WITH SOME 30 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE
FOR RWF AND AXN.
KMSP...CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL MN ARE MOVING SOUTH A BIT QUICKER
THAN FORECAST, SO DID MOVE UP THE ARRIVAL OF MVFR CIGS BY AN
HOUR. ONCE THESE CLOUDS GET HERE, WE SHOULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF
VERY LIGHT SNOW, WITH VISIBILITIES STILL GENERALLY VFR, THOUGH A
BRIEF BURST OF SNOW MAY VERY TEMPORARILY SEND THE VIS DOWN TO
2SM.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS BCMG SW 5-10KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND SW 5-10KTS.
TUE...MVFR. WIND NW 10-15G20KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...MPG
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