645
FXUS63 KMPX 101730
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1130 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS & SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
TODAY.
- WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY & TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARDS ACROSS
MINNESOTA & INTO WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT, WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
AROUND HALF AN INCH OR LESS CAUSING JUST ENOUGH ACCUMULATION TO
CREATE SOME SLICK SPOTS ON UNTREATED SURFACES. SATELLITE SHOWS
SKIES QUICKLY CLEARING BEHIND THIS BAND OF SNOW AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FALLING
THROUGH THE MORNING AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES BEHIND THE
FRONT, BUT CLOUDS & SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL RETURN BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MOVES
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION FROM THE
SNOW TODAY, JUST PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW LEADING TO ANOTHER
DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH. ONE THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON WILL BE THE
WIND GUSTS TODAY, AS NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE TENDENCY TO
OVERACHIEVE GUIDANCE IN COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIMES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON & EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA. THE
WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH THE LIGHT SNOW COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS OF WESTERN
MINNESOTA.
WE'VE ALREADY REACHED OUT HIGHS FOR THE DAY AS THE COLD
ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY AROUND 20 DEGREES.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY CLEARING
SKIES & SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, BUT THE REAL WARM-UP COMES MONDAY
& TUESDAY WHEN RIDGING PEAKS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S LOOK LIKELY & COULD EASILY REACH THE
50S ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF OF
THE BUFFALO RIDGE TYPICALLY BOOST TEMPERATURES BY SEVERAL
DEGREES.
LOOKING AHEAD, MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT A PATTERN OF NUMEROUS
CLIPPERS & WEAK DISTURBANCES FOLLOWING THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. NONE OF THESE LOOK TO BE MAJORLY IMPACTFUL SYSTEMS AS A
MOISTURE-BLOCKING REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX OF ICE, SNOW, & RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY HOVERING AROUND FREEZING DURING THE TIMES
OF PRECIPITATION. EVENTUALLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH
AMPLIFIED FLOW OVER THE REGION TRANSITIONS TO DEEP TROUGHING,
LEADING TO A RETURN TO WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FIRST TIME SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
MVFR STRATUS WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS IS THE STORY OF THE
DAY TODAY. NOT CONTINUOUS SNOW SHOWERS, BUT PERIODS OF MAINLY
MVFR WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME BRIEF IFR. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST BEFORE BECOMING LIGHTER AGAIN IN
THE MORNING AS THEY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. FOR THE SNOW
GENERALLY HELD TO LONG DURATION PROB30 GROUPS AS THE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON OFF OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME.
THESE SNOW CHANCES ARE NOT AS LIKELY FARTHER SOUTH AT TERMINALS
LIKE RWF AND MKT.
KMSP...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING THROUGH DURING TAF ISSUANCE
TIME HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND VFR. LOOKING AT RADAR TRENDS LIGHT VFR
SNOW LOOKS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL IT ENDS. MORE SNOW CHANCES
TO COME LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH MVFR
POSSIBLE. AN ACCUMULATION OF TRACE TO A TENTH OR TWO POSSIBLE.
MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY DURING THIS WHOLE SNOW POSSIBLE TIMEFRAME.
LIFTING TO VFR BY MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WIND W 5-10 KTS.
TUE...MVFR/RA. WIND NW 10-20 KTS.
WED...MVFR/RASN EARLY. VFR LATE. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...NDC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page