869
FXUS63 KMPX 110348
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
948 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- REST OF TODAY, COOL AND BREEZY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. ONLY A
DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
- SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WARM EACH DAY, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S BY TUESDAY.
- PRECIPITATION, SMALL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN (MAYBE SOME
SNOW) TUESDAY/NIGHT. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MAINLY SNOW (MAYBE
SOME RAIN) THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 945 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
SEVERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE STILL REPORTING FLURRIES ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN MN THIS EVENING. THIS IS LIKELY DUE THE STRATUS
LAYER'S LOCATION WITHIN THE DGZ AND CONTINUED LIFT FROM THE
UPPER LOW ACROSS CENTRAL WI. HAVE COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES TO EXTEND THE MENTION OF FLURRIES IN THE GRIDS
OVERNIGHT. THESE CHANCES WILL WANE AS THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS
TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST GENERALLY
REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH CLOUDS SET TO CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 206 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT...EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A
COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN BORDER, AND RADAR SHOWED SEVERAL AREAS OF SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE OBS INDICATED SOME REDUCED
VISIBILITY AT TIMES, MOSTLY UNDER THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS, BUT
THERE WAS A BLOWING SNOW COMPONENT AS WELL WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES. THE SNOW SHOWERS AND BREEZY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING, BUT SHOULD START TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE DRIFTS EAST AND WE LOOSE OUR FORCING FOR
ASCENT.
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS WAVE, HIGH RISES AND SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD,
BUT NOT OVERLY COLD, NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION, WITH LOWS INT HE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THIS COOLDOWN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND BRING WARMER AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WARM UP WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH
HIGHS NEAR 40 ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94, BUT MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. A FEW LOCATIONS MIGHT TOUCH 50, DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER.
IN ADDITION TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES, A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL PUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. ON MONDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM
WILL TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK, BUT COULD SPREAD SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS
THE REGION, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. THERE IS A NON-ZERO
CHANCE THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD REMAIN BELOW FREEZING,
LEADING TO SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN, BUT FOR NOW HAVE ONLY A
RAIN/SNOW MENTION IN THE WEATHER GRIDS SINCE THE TIMING AND TRACK
LOCATION OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY, WHICH WILL BRING COLDER
WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
20S, WHICH IS NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR MID-JANUARY. LOOKING
AHEAD, ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS ONE LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST OF THE THREE, BUT IT IS
ALSO THE FARTHEST OUT SO A LOT CAN CHANGE. AS IT APPEARS NOW, WE
SHOULD BE ON THE COLDER SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM, SO EXPECT MAINLY SNOW,
BUT COULD HAVE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT TIMES. IT'S TOO EARLY TO
SPECULATE ON EXACT AMOUNTS, BUT THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN MAYBE A FEW INCHES, WITH HIGHER TOTALS
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
SATELLITE REVEALS A WELL DEFINED UPPER-LOW SPINNING OVER CENTRAL
WI. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, AND MVFR
CEILINGS WEST OF THE CIRCULATIONS CENTER ARE THE MAIN AVIATION
CONCERNS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. THE UPPER-LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DEPART EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT, WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDS TO DIMINISH. MVFR (POSSIBLY LOWER)
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LATEST RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE IS A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH
IMPROVEMENTS, BUT WOULD ANTICIPATE A VFR SCENARIO WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
KMSP...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN BREEZY INTO TONIGHT, BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z, BUT LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRENDING A BIT SLOWER WITH
IMPROVEMENTS SO OPTED TO DELAY A RETURN TO VFR UNTIL 15Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WIND W 5-10 KTS.
TUE...MVFR/RA. WIND NW 10-20 KTS.
WED...MVFR/RASN EARLY. VFR LATE. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
UPDATE...STRUS
DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...STRUS
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