162
FXUS63 KMPX 110506
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1106 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- REST OF TODAY, COOL AND BREEZY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. ONLY A
DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
- SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WARM EACH DAY, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S BY TUESDAY.
- PRECIPITATION, SMALL CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN (MAYBE SOME
SNOW) TUESDAY/NIGHT. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MAINLY SNOW (MAYBE
SOME RAIN) THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 945 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
SEVERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE STILL REPORTING FLURRIES ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN MN THIS EVENING. THIS IS LIKELY DUE THE STRATUS
LAYER'S LOCATION WITHIN THE DGZ AND CONTINUED LIFT FROM THE
UPPER LOW ACROSS CENTRAL WI. HAVE COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES TO EXTEND THE MENTION OF FLURRIES IN THE GRIDS
OVERNIGHT. THESE CHANCES WILL WANE AS THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS
TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST GENERALLY
REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH CLOUDS SET TO CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 206 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT...EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A
COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN BORDER, AND RADAR SHOWED SEVERAL AREAS OF SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE OBS INDICATED SOME REDUCED
VISIBILITY AT TIMES, MOSTLY UNDER THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS, BUT
THERE WAS A BLOWING SNOW COMPONENT AS WELL WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES. THE SNOW SHOWERS AND BREEZY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING, BUT SHOULD START TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE DRIFTS EAST AND WE LOOSE OUR FORCING FOR
ASCENT.
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS WAVE, HIGH RISES AND SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD,
BUT NOT OVERLY COLD, NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION, WITH LOWS INT HE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THIS COOLDOWN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND BRING WARMER AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WARM UP WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH
HIGHS NEAR 40 ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94, BUT MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. A FEW LOCATIONS MIGHT TOUCH 50, DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER.
IN ADDITION TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES, A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL PUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. ON MONDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM
WILL TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK, BUT COULD SPREAD SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS
THE REGION, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. THERE IS A NON-ZERO
CHANCE THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD REMAIN BELOW FREEZING,
LEADING TO SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN, BUT FOR NOW HAVE ONLY A
RAIN/SNOW MENTION IN THE WEATHER GRIDS SINCE THE TIMING AND TRACK
LOCATION OF THIS SECOND SYSTEM IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY, WHICH WILL BRING COLDER
WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
20S, WHICH IS NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR MID-JANUARY. LOOKING
AHEAD, ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS ONE LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST OF THE THREE, BUT IT IS
ALSO THE FARTHEST OUT SO A LOT CAN CHANGE. AS IT APPEARS NOW, WE
SHOULD BE ON THE COLDER SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM, SO EXPECT MAINLY SNOW,
BUT COULD HAVE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT TIMES. IT'S TOO EARLY TO
SPECULATE ON EXACT AMOUNTS, BUT THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN MAYBE A FEW INCHES, WITH HIGHER TOTALS
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS BLANKETS MUCH OF MN AND WESTERN WI LATE
THIS EVENING. THE STRATUS IS LOCATED WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH
ZONE, WHICH IS RESULTING IN LINGERING FLURRIES. INFLUENCE FROM
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW OVER WI WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
FLURRIES IN THE PICTURE AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH EARLY
IN THE 6Z TAF PERIOD. FOR SUNDAY, LATEST RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE HAS
CONTINUED TO TREND SLOWER WITH CEILING IMPROVEMENTS THROUGH THE
MORNING. HAVE EXTENDED THE TIMEFRAME OF MVFR CIGS AT MOST
TERMINALS AS A RESULT, BUT DO EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
KMSP...PERIODIC FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, THOUGH NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. OPTED TO KEEP MVFR CIGS IN THE TAF
THROUGH 18Z BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WIND W 5-10 KTS.
TUE...MVFR/RA. WIND NW 10-20 KTS.
WED...MVFR/RASN EARLY. VFR LATE. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
UPDATE...STRUS
DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...STRUS
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