429
FXUS63 KMPX 111725
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1125 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WARM EACH DAY, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S BY TUESDAY.
- LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE NORTHEAST OF I-94 MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
- UNSETTLED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH LIGHT SNOW, THOUGH IT ONLY
LOOKS TO AMOUNT TO LESS THAN 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
A SURFACE RIDGE NUDGING INTO WESTERN MN HAS ALLOWED CLOUDS TO CLEAR
OUT THERE, BUT FOR EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI, THEY'VE STAYED STUCK
IN THE MOIST/CYCLONIC FLOW, LOCKING THE STRATUS IN PLACE. THE GOOD
NEWS IS AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING, THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST, PUSH THE STRATUS OUT OF THE AREA
AS IT DOES SO, THOUGH WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. AS WE GET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE, WAA ALSO
KICKS IN, WITH HIGHS TOPPING 40 AGAIN BEING POSSIBLE NORTHEAST OF
THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN WEST CENTRAL MN. REMNANT COLD AIR AND SNOW
COVER THOUGH WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR EASTERN MN AND WESTERN
WI. WAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY NOT
DROPPING MUCH FROM THEIR HIGHS TODAY. THIS WILL PUT US IN ANOTHER
MILD PACIFIC AIRMASS TO START THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. BASED ON
RECENT PERFORMANCE IN THESE PAC AIRMASSES, THE NBM IS LIKELY
UNDERDONE WITH HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT JUST HOW MUCH
TEMPERATURES WILL OVERACHIEVE EACH DAY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN, BUT IF
YOU WENT WITH THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE FOR HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, THAT WOULD BUMP AN EXTRA 2-4 DEGREES TO HIGHS AREA WIDE
BOTH DAYS. THIS MAKES TUESDAY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S EXPECTED PRETTY MUCH AREA WIDE, WITH LOWER 50S FOR
HIGHS IN SOUTHWEST MN. FROM THE LOOKS OF IT THOUGH, THIS MAY BE OUR
LAST SOLID THAW THE REST OF JANUARY...
THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH
THROUGH TUESDAY. PRECIP WITH THE FIRST ONE MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE MPX AREA. THE SECOND ONE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WILL DROP A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
SYSTEM CLOSELY, AS WE'LL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH
MEANS OUR AREA WOULD LIKELY SEE SOMETHING OTHER THAN SNOW, WHICH
COULD INCLUDE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH FOR AREA NORTHEAST OF I-94.
OUR MILD PACIFIC AIRMASS WILL BE AGGRESSIVELY PUSHED OUT OF HERE
TUESDAY NIGHT, AS STRONG CAA OVERSPREADS THE AREA. BESIDES THE
THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS, EPS IS SHOWING A PRETTY STRONG SIGNAL FOR
40+ MPH WIND GUSTS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE'LL HAVE
A DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW. THAT COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CUT US OFF
FROM DEEPER MOISTURE, BUT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE YOUR
CLASSIC PATTERN WHERE IT SNOWS A LOT, BUT DOESN'T AMOUNT TO MUCH. IF
SOMEONE WERE TO OVERACHIEVE, THEY MAY SEE 4 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE
TWO DAYS.
BEHIND THIS SERIES OF WAVES, WE'LL HAVE A COOLER DAY FOR SATURDAY,
WHERE HIGHS CURRENTLY LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE TEENS, BUT AS WE'VE
SEEN SINCE MID-DECEMBER, WE REALLY STRUGGLE SUSTAIN THE COLD AIR,
WITH HIGHS LOOKING TO BE BACK UP NEAR NORMAL TO END NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
THE IFR/MVFR CIGS HAVE PUSHED INTO WESTERN WI AND WILL ONLY
INFLUENCE RNH/EAU FOR THE PERIOD, WITH SCT012 AT MSP LIKELY TO
DISSIPATE AS MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN. MOST SITES BECOME
BKN/SCT200 TO 250 AND REMAIN AS SUCH FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
ONCE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS PUSH SOUTHEAST. A SUBTLE BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE HOURS OF
LLWS, GENERALLY STARTING AT 22Z FOR WESTERN SITES AND END AT 04Z
FOR EASTERN SITES, HOWEVER WINDS MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH ALOFT
TO REACH THE 35KT THRESHOLD TO INCLUDE WITHIN THE TAF. WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM 240-270 TO 200-230 AND REMAIN AROUND 10KTS
THROUGHOUT.
KMSP...A BRIEF WINDOW OF LLWS IS PRESENT FROM 00-04Z AS THE
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH, HOWEVER ELECTED TO OMIT FROM THE TAF AS
WINDS LOOK TO BE BELOW WHAT IS NECESSARY TO REACH THE THRESHOLD.
BESIDES THIS, THE MAIN THING WILL BE THE SCT015 AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD MOVING SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE
TAF, FOLLOWED BY VFR HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR, CHC MVFR/-SHRA EARLY. WIND NW 10-15G25KTS.
WED...VFR, CHC MVFR EARLY. WIND N 10-15KTS.
THU...MVFR/-SN LIKELY, CHANCE IFR/LIFR. WIND S 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...TDH
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