223
FXUS63 KMPX 261747
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1147 AM CST MON JAN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH WIND CHILLS VALUES REACHING
30 TO 40 BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM TODAY.
- LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN WI COULD PRODUCE MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL LOW CHANCES FOR FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
- COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK BUT A WARMING TREND
ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST MON JAN 26 2026
ALL REMAINS CALM, QUIET, AND COLD EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RANGING IN TEENS BELOW ZERO WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS. UNLIKE LAST NIGHT, THIS ADDED WIND HAS ALLOWED FOR WIND CHILL
VALUES TO FALL AS LOW AS 30 TO 40 BELOW ZERO. A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING. SO ENSURE TO
BUNDLE THE LITTLE ONES UP BEFORE HEADING OUT TO THE BUS STOP.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM YESTERDAY WILL ADVANCE SOUTH TODAY
CLEARING THE PATH FOR A MID-LEVEL WAVE TO SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN
MN INTO NORTHWESTERN WI. AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES, A WARM FRONT
WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPERATURES WARMER BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON PRIOR
TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH
TONIGHT. FORECAST HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS SOUTH OF I- 94. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TODAY WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH. WITH THE INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS, ITS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN COULD SEE PATCHY
BLOWING SNOW IN UNSHELTERED AREAS. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN AGREEMENT
AMONGST EPS MEMBERS FOR LIGHT SNOW, HAVE INCREASED POPS HIGHER
TO DEFINITE VALUES FOR AREAS EAST OF RICE LAKE DOWN THROUGH EAU
CLAIRE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CONTINUE TO RANGE NEAR A HALF-INCH
OR LESS. MEANWHILE FARTHER WEST, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH I-94 IN MINNESOTA.
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REGARDING THE LONG TERM
FORECAST, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH
OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF REINFORCING COLD AIR. SOME FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES, BUT THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE TOO DRY FOR ANY
MEANINGFUL ACCUMULATING SNOW. A MODERATING TREND SHOULD ARRIVE
NEXT WEEKEND AS A MILDER PACIFIC AIRMASS ENGULFS NORTH AMERICA.
THAT WARMER AIR ADVECTION WILL BE AIDED BY A CLIPPER SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND RETURN FLOW FROM A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE MAY BE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WITHIN THIS REGIME, BUT MODEL
CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN NOT BEEN GREAT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST MON JAN 26 2026
VFR TO START WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AT ALL SITES. STILL
LOOKING FOR A QUICK-HITTING CLIPPER SYSTEM TO BREEZE ACROSS
NORTHERN MN AND NORTHERN WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TO BE OVERCOME, THE
ONLY SITE WHICH LOOKS TO HAVE A LEGIT POSSIBILITY OF RECEIVING
ANY FLURRIES OR -SHSN IS EAU, AND IT'S A DIMINISHING CHANCE AT
THAT, SO HAVE KEPT ITS MENTION GOING THERE BUT CONVERTED IT TO A
PROB30 TO BETTER EXPRESS THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY. ALL OTHER SITES
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY (STC-MSP-RNH HAVE AN UNMENTIONABLE BUT NON-
ZERO CHANCE OF FLURRIES AROUND 00Z BUT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEGLIGIBLE). CEILINGS WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE WITH AND IN
THE WAKE OF THE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER, LASTING FOR MUCH OF
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. NOT EXPECTING MVFR CEILINGS BY
THE TIME DECKS DROP TO AROUND 030 PRIOR TO SUNRISE AS COVERAGE
DIMINISHES BUT A COUPLE-FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS CANNOT BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY/GUSTY FOR MUCH OF
THIS DURATION, GRADUALLY VEERING FROM SW AT INITIALIZATION TO W
BY ABOUT SUNSET TODAY TO NW OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.
KMSP...HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY TAF BUT A COUPLE HOURS OF
INTERMITTENT FLURRIES EITHER SIDE OF 00Z TONIGHT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. IF ANY PRECIP DOES OCCUR, IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A TRACE OF VERY POWDERY SNOW, SUBJECT TO BEING BLOWN OFF PAVED
SURFACES DUE TO THE BREEZY WINDS. MID-LEVEL CEILINGS ARE LIKELY
FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WHICH SHOULD PREVENT MVFR CEILINGS
FROM BEING REALIZED.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND N 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF/DUNLEAVY
AVIATION...JPC
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