562
FXUS63 KMPX 261845
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1245 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER WESTERN WI
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO A PASSING
CLIPPER SYSTEM, WITH ANY POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS UNDER 1 INCH.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW DOESN'T COME UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.
- COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A WARM-UP FOR NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48 AS THE POTENT COLD
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE ATLANTIC. VERY FEW AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
ARE EVIDENT IN THE WESTERN CONUS, WHILE A CLIPPER LOW CURRENTLY
SITS OVER EAST-CENTRAL MANITOBA PROVINCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SAGS SOUTHWEST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ALOFT, A
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS SITS ALIGNED OVER THE APPALACHIANS WITH A
DEEP RIDGE ALONG THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. A COMPACT
UPPER LOW SITS NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FEATURE IN
SOUTHERN CANADA, WHICH WILL HELP DRAG THE SURFACE LOW EASTWARD
TONIGHT.
THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT ESE ALONG THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING,
WITH THE SURFACE LOW JUST ABOUT TAKING A SIMILAR PATH UNDERNEATH
THE UPPER LOW. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN BE DRAGGED
ACROSS MN/WI THROUGH THIS EVENING. MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS
IS QUITE LACKING, EVIDENT ON SATELLITE WITH CLOUDS ABOVE 12 KFT
AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 10-15 DEGREES, EVEN WITH THE
FRIGID AIRMASS IN PLACE. THUS, AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST, ANY
REMOTELY-POSSIBLE CONCENTRATION OF MOISTURE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO WESTERN WI
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, WITH A TRACE TO NO MORE
THAN AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM, THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN
TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48 WILL ONLY BECOME MORE
AMPLIFIED BUT GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE, PARTICULARLY DUE TO THE
QUASI-STATIONARY HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW REMAINING IN PLACE
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE HUDSON LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTH TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND AND TRY TO EXPAND WEST BUT WILL MEET UP WITH THE VERY
AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
THUS, LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS
EXPECTED, WITH THE FLOW OF COLD AIR FROM THE ARCTIC INTO OUR
REGION EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY UNINTERRUPTED. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A QUIET-BUT-COLD PATTERN FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR
THE TUESDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME: CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS,
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW ZERO. ALTHOUGH NO WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH HEADLINE CRITERIA (-25 OR LOWER), THE FRIGID AIR IS
STILL ENOUGH TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS IF GOING TO BE OUTSIDE FOR ANY
PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME.
BY THE WEEKEND, THE WESTERN RIDGE BREAKS AWAY FROM THE WEST
COAST AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS, ALLOWING FOR A BREAK
FROM THE PERSISTENT FRIGID AIR WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO
RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL SATURDAY-SUNDAY THEN LIKELY VERY CLOSE TO
IF NOT ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND, POSSIBLY PRODUCING SCATTERED
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST MON JAN 26 2026
VFR TO START WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AT ALL SITES. STILL
LOOKING FOR A QUICK-HITTING CLIPPER SYSTEM TO BREEZE ACROSS
NORTHERN MN AND NORTHERN WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TO BE OVERCOME, THE
ONLY SITE WHICH LOOKS TO HAVE A LEGIT POSSIBILITY OF RECEIVING
ANY FLURRIES OR -SHSN IS EAU, AND IT'S A DIMINISHING CHANCE AT
THAT, SO HAVE KEPT ITS MENTION GOING THERE BUT CONVERTED IT TO A
PROB30 TO BETTER EXPRESS THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY. ALL OTHER SITES
LOOK TO REMAIN DRY (STC-MSP-RNH HAVE AN UNMENTIONABLE BUT NON-
ZERO CHANCE OF FLURRIES AROUND 00Z BUT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEGLIGIBLE). CEILINGS WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE WITH AND IN
THE WAKE OF THE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER, LASTING FOR MUCH OF
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. NOT EXPECTING MVFR CEILINGS BY
THE TIME DECKS DROP TO AROUND 030 PRIOR TO SUNRISE AS COVERAGE
DIMINISHES BUT A COUPLE-FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS CANNOT BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY/GUSTY FOR MUCH OF
THIS DURATION, GRADUALLY VEERING FROM SW AT INITIALIZATION TO W
BY ABOUT SUNSET TODAY TO NW OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.
KMSP...HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY TAF BUT A COUPLE HOURS OF
INTERMITTENT FLURRIES EITHER SIDE OF 00Z TONIGHT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. IF ANY PRECIP DOES OCCUR, IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH
A TRACE OF VERY POWDERY SNOW, SUBJECT TO BEING BLOWN OFF PAVED
SURFACES DUE TO THE BREEZY WINDS. MID-LEVEL CEILINGS ARE LIKELY
FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WHICH SHOULD PREVENT MVFR CEILINGS
FROM BEING REALIZED.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND N 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...JPC
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