638
FXUS63 KMPX 262303
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
503 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER WESTERN WI
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO A PASSING
CLIPPER SYSTEM, WITH ANY POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS UNDER 1 INCH.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW DOESN'T COME UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.
- COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A WARM-UP FOR NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE
COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48 AS THE POTENT COLD
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE ATLANTIC. VERY FEW AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
ARE EVIDENT IN THE WESTERN CONUS, WHILE A CLIPPER LOW CURRENTLY
SITS OVER EAST-CENTRAL MANITOBA PROVINCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SAGS SOUTHWEST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ALOFT, A
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS SITS ALIGNED OVER THE APPALACHIANS WITH A
DEEP RIDGE ALONG THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. A COMPACT
UPPER LOW SITS NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FEATURE IN
SOUTHERN CANADA, WHICH WILL HELP DRAG THE SURFACE LOW EASTWARD
TONIGHT.
THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT ESE ALONG THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING,
WITH THE SURFACE LOW JUST ABOUT TAKING A SIMILAR PATH UNDERNEATH
THE UPPER LOW. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN BE DRAGGED
ACROSS MN/WI THROUGH THIS EVENING. MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS
IS QUITE LACKING, EVIDENT ON SATELLITE WITH CLOUDS ABOVE 12 KFT
AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 10-15 DEGREES, EVEN WITH THE
FRIGID AIRMASS IN PLACE. THUS, AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST, ANY
REMOTELY-POSSIBLE CONCENTRATION OF MOISTURE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO WESTERN WI
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, WITH A TRACE TO NO MORE
THAN AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM, THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN
TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48 WILL ONLY BECOME MORE
AMPLIFIED BUT GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE, PARTICULARLY DUE TO THE
QUASI-STATIONARY HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW REMAINING IN PLACE
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE HUDSON LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTH TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND AND TRY TO EXPAND WEST BUT WILL MEET UP WITH THE VERY
AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
THUS, LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS
EXPECTED, WITH THE FLOW OF COLD AIR FROM THE ARCTIC INTO OUR
REGION EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY UNINTERRUPTED. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A QUIET-BUT-COLD PATTERN FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR
THE TUESDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME: CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS,
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW ZERO. ALTHOUGH NO WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH HEADLINE CRITERIA (-25 OR LOWER), THE FRIGID AIR IS
STILL ENOUGH TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS IF GOING TO BE OUTSIDE FOR ANY
PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME.
BY THE WEEKEND, THE WESTERN RIDGE BREAKS AWAY FROM THE WEST
COAST AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS, ALLOWING FOR A BREAK
FROM THE PERSISTENT FRIGID AIR WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO
RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL SATURDAY-SUNDAY THEN LIKELY VERY CLOSE TO
IF NOT ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND, POSSIBLY PRODUCING SCATTERED
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 458 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
VFR TO START WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AT ALL SITES, ALTHOUGH
SOME PATCHES OF MVFR ARE BEING REPORTED IN FAR WESTERN MN,
INCLUDING AXN, THUS HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR
SOME BOUNCING IN THE CEILINGS EARLY ON. STILL LOOKING FOR A
QUICK- HITTING CLIPPER SYSTEM TO BREEZE ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND
NORTHERN WI THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR TO BE OVERCOME, THE ONLY SITE WHICH LOOKS TO HAVE A LEGIT
POSSIBILITY OF RECEIVING ANY FLURRIES OR -SHSN IS EAU, SO HAVE
KEPT ITS PROB30 MENTION GOING THERE. ALL OTHER SITES LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY (STC-MSP-RNH HAVE AN UNMENTIONABLE BUT NON-ZERO
CHANCE OF FLURRIES AROUND 00Z BUT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEGLIGIBLE IF ANY PRECIP IS REALIZED). CEILINGS WILL THEN
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH AND IN THE WAKE OF THE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER, LASTING FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. NOT
EXPECTING MVFR CEILINGS BUT LOW-RANGE VFR CEILINGS FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD FROM PRE-DAWN THROUGH MIDDAY LOOK FAVORABLE TO
OCCUR. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY/GUSTY FOR MUCH OF THIS
DURATION, GRADUALLY VEERING FROM W AT INITIALIZATION TO NW
OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.
KMSP...HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY TAF BUT A COUPLE HOURS OF
INTERMITTENT FLURRIES THROUGH ABOUT 02Z TONIGHT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. IF ANY PRECIP DOES OCCUR, IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH A
TRACE OF VERY POWDERY SNOW, SUBJECT TO BEING BLOWN OFF PAVED
SURFACES DUE TO THE BREEZY WINDS. MID-LEVEL CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
AROUND DAYBREAK. NO MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED BUT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ENTIRELY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WHEN TRAFFIC
WILL BE AT A MINIMUM.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND N 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...JPC
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