210
FXUS63 KMPX 271757
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1157 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THE REST OF THIS
WEEK.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW DOESN'T COME UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 930 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS & REMOVED FLURRIES FROM
THE WEATHER GRIDS GIVEN A GENERAL LACK OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR
CWA. LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL FLURRIES WILL
RESIDE TO THE EAST ACROSS WFO DLH & ARX'S LOCALES GIVEN
PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW WITHIN THE WING OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION. WINDS REMAIN BREEZY THIS MORNING, BUT ARE FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY BECOME LESS INTENSE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
THROUGH THE DAY.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST SITES
EARLY THIS MORNING HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT HAS NOW PASSED BEYOND
MN/WI. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL A FEW TO
AROUND 0 DEGREES THIS MORNING. ALOFT, BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND WILL DIRECT A MID-LEVEL LOW EASTWARD
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ONE THING OF NOTE IS THAT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT FROM THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE HAS SHAPED UP TO BE A BIT TIGHTER
AND HAS CAUSED SFC WIND GUSTS TO ACHIEVE ROUGHLY 5 TO 7 KTS
FASTER THAN THE NBM. ADDITIONALLY, ENOUGH WEAK FORCING EXISTS
TO WHERE A FEW BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES HAVE
DEVELOPED. GIVEN THESE TRENDS, HAD TO INCREASE BOTH WIND GUSTS
AND POPS IN THE VERY NEAR TERM TO REFLECT THE UPTICK OF WINDS
AND PRECIP ACTIVITY. THE HOURLY GFS REFLECTED THE FLURRY
POTENTIAL PRETTY WELL SO OPT'ED TO BLEND THIS INTO THE FORECAST.
THE LACK OF SATURATED DGZ AND WINDS REMAINING INCREASED, ANY
SNOW THAT FALLS WILL JUST END UP BLOWING AROUND. MINOR IMPACTS
TO VSBY COULD OCCUR IN NON-SHELTERED AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING
BUT THAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE DAY.
WIND GUSTS WILL DECREASE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CONTINUES EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND A 1030MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL IN FROM THE
WEST. FORECASTED HIGHS UNFORTUNATELY WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS THEY
WERE YESTERDAY AS MOST WILL OBSERVE THE SINGLE DIGITS. CLOUD COVER
WILL DECREASE THIS MORNING LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WESTERN WISCONSIN WILL SHARE THE SUNSHINE TODAY HOWEVER
THERE COULD BE A FEW STRAGGLING PATCHES OF STRATUS THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE REST OF THIS WEEK CONTINUES TO BE COLD AND QUIET. THE HUDSON LOW
WILL GRADUALLY TRY AND MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND
WILL KEEP AMPLIFIED RIDGING PINNED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE
LOCALLY, WE WILL BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE, MEANING
NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL KEEPING OUR FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH FRIDAY. WIND CHILLS AT THE
MOMENT DO NOT POSE CONCERN FOR ANY HEADLINES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS BUT CONDITIONS WILL REQUIRE THE NEED TO BUNDLE UP IF
HEADING OUT. BY THIS WEEKEND, THE RIDGE WILL MAKE ITS WAY EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND AID TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL
AND THEN PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK. ONLY PRECIP CHANCE LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BUT AS
OF NOW LOOKS TO BE NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. VFR CIGS/VSBY
FORECAST THROUGHOUT. OUR SFC HIGH WILL CAUSE GUST TO FALL OFF
BY SUNSET. WINDS START WNW TURN MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AND BACK
TO THE WNW BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. A THIN RIBBON OF STRATOCU
REMAINS SCATTERED AT BEST ACROSS S/SC MN AND WILL DISSIPATE WITH
THE PUSH OF DRIER AIR W/THE SFC HIGH. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
MOVE IN BY END OF TAF.
KMSP... NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND N 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
UPDATE...STRUS
DISCUSSION...DUNLEAVY
AVIATION...BPH
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