288
FXUS63 KMPX 280919
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
319 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD & DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
- NEXT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND.
- EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
SLOW NEWS DAY TO WHERE "COLD AND DRY" REMAINS THE ONGOING MESSAGE.
FUN FACT, TODAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURE LAST YEAR WAS 47 DEGREES (WHICH
IS THE CURRENT DAILY RECORD). BUT GIVEN OUR CURRENT TEMPERATURES
RANGING AROUND 0 DEGREES CURRENTLY, I DOUBT WE'LL ACHIEVE THAT KIND
OF WARMTH TODAY. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, TEMPS SHOULD REACH THEIR
LOWEST THIS MORNING BETWEEN 6 TO 8 BELOW FOR THOSE NORTH OF I-94.
ALOFT, TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING TO OUR
WEST AND LEAVING A 150KT JET STREAK DIRECTLY OVER HEAD. BY LOOKING
AT CURRENT NIGHT TIME MICROPHYSICS, A BAND OF THIN MID-LEVEL STATUS
IS DRAPED NEAR ALEXANDRIA DOWN TO MANKATO. THIS REPRESENTS
WHERE A THIN RIBBON OF WEAK FORCING EXISTS. THERE WON'T BE MUCH
MOVEMENT OF OUR SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS, MEANING
AREAS OF SOME SCATTERED LOW-LEVEL STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
BUT OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. FORECAST HIGHS
WILL REACH THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND PERHAPS A BIT WARMER
ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HUDSON BAY LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WHICH WILL SEND AN INVERTED TROUGH DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ACCOMPANIED WITH THAT TROUGH WILL BE A
~1045MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL LOCALLY KEEP CONDITIONS TRANQUIL
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, AND TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WIND CHILLS
WILL FALL TO 15 TO 25 BELOW. RIGHT NOW, WEST-CENTRAL MN HAS THE
HIGHER POTENTIAL TO SEE ISSUANCE OF COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINES.
THIS WEEKEND IS WHEN WE SEE DEEP RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
BEGIN INFILTRATING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL CONUS. IT IS AT THIS
TIME, FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHERLY AND WILL STARTING ADVECTING
WARMER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PLANS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
UPPER TEENS FOR MOST AREAS SATURDAY THEN BY SUNDAY, WE RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (MID-20S). THIS ALSO WILL
AID IN "SOME" MOISTURE RETURNING TO REGION AS WELL. A WEAK
CLIPPER EMBEDDED WITHIN THE PARENT RIDGING PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO PROCEED THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS MENTIONED IN
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, THIS CLIPPER COULD FEATURE ANOTHER HIGH
POP/LOW QPF SETUP. AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES ADVERTISING
HIGH MEMBERSHIP FOR LOW QPF AMOUNTS. HOW THIS TRANSLATES TO SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL DEPEND ON HOW SATURATED THE DGZ CAN GET. AS
OF NOW, WE COULD PERHAPS SEE UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF FLUFF BY
SUNDAY EVENING. ANOTHER CLIPPER LOOKS TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK HOWEVER, ITS TOO SOON TO GET
INTO SPECIFICS QUITE YET. WITH THAT SAID, AS WE NEAR THE END OF
JANUARY, SNOWFALL FOR THIS MONTH AT MSP IS CURRENTLY 4.1" WHICH
IS -5.6" FROM NORMAL. GIVEN WHAT THE FORECAST HOLDS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK, ITS HIGHLY UNLIKELY WE'LL SURPASS THAT PRIOR
TO THE 31ST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
COMPARED TO THE 00Z TAF, THE ONLY MAJOR CHANGE WAS TO INCLUDE
SOME 3000FT SCATTERED CUMULUS DURING PEAK DAYLIGHT TOMORROW,
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE EXPERIENCED AT AXN/MKT TODAY. WE MAY SEE
BRIEF BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS, HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME WE
SHOULD REMAIN FEW/SCT. WINDS REMAIN AT 290-320 AT OR BELOW 10KTS
THROUGHOUT.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND N 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUNLEAVY
AVIATION...TDH
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