718
FXUS63 KMPX 291133
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
533 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
- LIGHT SNOW AND MINOR ACCUMULATIONS RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
CALM AND QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE. CURRENT TEMPERATURES RANGE
AROUND 10 BELOW ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND NEAR 0 ALONG THE I-90
CORRIDOR. SATELLITE SHOWING AN ISOLATED AREA OF LOW-LEVEL STRATUS IN
EASTERN MN WHILE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STRETCHES FROM ALEXANDRIA TO
ROCHESTER. THESE CLOUDS APPEAR TO ALIGN WELL WITH A THIN BAND OF
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
HUDSON BAY. THIS TROUGHING PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AND MOVE
SOUTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC TODAY. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE APEX OF AN INVERTED TROUGH SWEEPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING IN TOW OF THIS
INVERTED TROUGH IS A 1035MB SFC HIGH THAT WILL AID IN LOCKING
THIS COLD AIRMASS OVERHEAD FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS. MEANING ONE
CAN EXPECT FORECAST HIGHS DURING THIS PERIOD TO CONTINUE RUNNING
WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWS BELOW ZERO
UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLDEST TEMPS LOOK TO OCCUR
FRIDAY MORNING AS WIND CHILL VALUES REACH 15 TO 25 BELOW WHICH
DO FALL SHORT OF COLD WEATHER HEADLINE CRITERIA. REGARDLESS,
COLD IS COLD SO BE SURE TO DRESS WARM IF HEADING OUT.
TWO ELEMENTS OF UNCERTAINTY EXIST TODAY: 1) THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER (OR LACK THEREOF) THAT DEVELOPS, AND 2) THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH ANY STRATUS THAT FORMS. AS MENTIONED
IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REGARDING THESE INVERTED TROUGH
SCENARIOS, WE HAVE AN EXISTING LOBE OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ALOFT
COMBINED WITH A COLD AIRMASS, WHICH TYPICALLY SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SIGNAL THAT
BANDS OF STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND THEN DIVE SOUTHWARD TODAY. HOWEVER, THE
AFOREMENTIONED 1035MB SFC HIGH WILL PRODUCE SUBSIDENCE THAT
COULD INHIBIT SOME OF THAT FORECASTED CLOUD COVER FROM
OCCURRING. ADDITIONALLY, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWED SHALLOW
SURFACE SATURATION WITH VERY WEAK OMEGA (LIFT). THEREFORE OPTED
TO CONTINUE LEAVING OUT FLURRY MENTIONS IN TODAY'S FORECAST.
ALSO WORTH NOTING, GUIDANCE HAS BEEN AGGRESSIVE ON THE AMOUNT OF
TOTAL CLOUD COVER OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THUS BASED ON
PREVIOUS OBS, DECIDED TO LIMIT CLOUD COVER VALUES BELOW 50% IN
ORDER TO MESSAGE MOSTLY SUNNY VERSUS PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
AS WE ENTER THE WEEKEND, THE WELL ADVERTISED RIDING PATTERN TO OUR
WEST WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
WARMER AIR ARRIVES SATURDAY AS FORECAST HIGHS REACH THE TEENS
FOLLOWED BY THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SUNDAY, THEN CONTINUING INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL RESULT IN A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN THE
CONFIDENCE AMONGST ENSEMBLE MEMBERSHIP, MANY OF US COULD SEE A FEW
TENTHS TO AN INCH OF SNOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW ARRIVES NEXT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 531 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
VFR WITH NON-ZERO CHC OF MVFR CIGS LATER TODAY. CONTINUING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE MVFR STRATUS ACROSS NORTHERN MN THIS MORNING
HOWEVER NOT FULLY CONFIDENT HOW FAR SOUTH THE MVFR CIGS MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO HELP MITIGATE SOME
DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW, KEPT ALL SITES AT FEW TO SCT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOULD THE STATUS HOLD TOGETHER AND MAKE
IT TO ALL SITES, A FEW FLURRIES COULD FALL WITH NO ACCUMULATION.
LIGHT NW WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH THIS EVENING NEAR 5KTS.
KMSP...VFR WITH A NON-ZERO CHC OF MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR STRATUS ACROSS NORTHERN MN BUT WILL BE VERY
DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF SFC DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP
MVFR CIGS AWAY. FOR NOW AND BASED ON PREVIOUS TRENDS, MAINTAINED
SCT LOW VFR HEIGHTS IN THE TAF THIS EVENING UNTIL THE END OF
THE PERIOD. LIGHT NW WINDS SHIFT NORTH AFTER 03Z NEAR 5KTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI PM...VFR. WIND N 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND W BCMG SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC MVFR -SN. WIND SW 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUNLEAVY
AVIATION...DUNLEAVY
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