314
FXUS63 KMPX 292121
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
321 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WIND
CHILLS SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN THE THRESHOLD FOR A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY
- CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE AROUND AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION.
- TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...IT WAS ANOTHER CLEAR AND CRISP DAY
ACROSS THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS SHOWED
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES WERE
STILL ON THE COLD SIDE, WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO BREAK DOUBLE
DIGITS. MEANWHILE AN AREA OF CLOUDS WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
THIS WAS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A VERY POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
LEVEL WAVE THAT WILL SWING DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
EVENTUALLY STRENGTHEN INTO THE STRONG NOR'EASTER OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AS IT COUPLES WITH THE SUB TROPICAL ON SATURDAY.
BEFORE IT DOES SO, EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT, WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE COOLING THAT WELL SEE. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
DROP BELOW ZERO, BUT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 MPH. THIS WILL
BRING WIND CHILLS OF -20 TO -30, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
THE THRESHOLD FOR A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY. FARTHER NORTH IN
MINNESOTA, EXPECT COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY MORE BREEZY
CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY, WITH ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
LASTING INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL. THE MAIN CONCERN COMES
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, WHEN A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE WILL LEAD TO CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
ONLY MEAGER LIFT, BUT ARE SATURATED, SO CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED THAT THERE WILL BE FALLING SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE BAND MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION,
BUT SINCE THE SYSTEM IS FALLING APART AND RELATIVELY MOISTURE-
STARVED, MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONLY SEE AROUND AN INCH. THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ARE NOT TOO STRONG,
SO WIND SPEEDS SHOULD ONLY BE ABOUT 10 TO 20 MPH, PEAKING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW ENDS.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION, BUT THERE WILL BE A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS THAT BRING
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR THAT HAS BEEN MODIFIED OUT WEST ON THE LEE
SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. THAT MEANS TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S. ALONG WITH THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES COMES
SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW, BUT AT THIS POINT ANY SYSTEM LACKS THE
INGREDIENTS TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
SATELLITE REVEALS A BAND OF STRATUS ACROSS NORTHERN MN THAT
EXTENDS INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WI. VARIOUS OBSERVATIONS
REVEAL REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO FLURRIES BENEATH THE STRATUS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN FLURRIES REACHING ANY OF THE TERMINALS, SO
NO MENTION WAS MADE IN THE 18Z TAF SET. THE STRATUS DECK IS
PROGGED TO DRIFT SOUTH THIS EVENING AND MAY YIELD AN MVFR CIG AT
STC OR RNH. OTHERWISE, THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE QUIET, WITH A
SLIGHT WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND S 5-10KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC MVFR -SN. WIND SW 5-15KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...STRUS
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