026
FXUS63 KMPX 300903
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
303 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
SEE AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION.
- TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL VALUES NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT CLEARING IS
TAKING PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE CLEARING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME ACCELERATED
COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE CLOSE TO SUNRISE BEFORE TEMPS
REBOUND DIURNALLY. HIGHS TODAY WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOW TEENS.
A STRONG 1047 MB HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
AND WESTERN MN THIS AFTERNOON, THEN REACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BRING SUBZERO
LOWS AGAIN, BUT THIS SHOULD BE THE FINAL NIGHT OF A NEARLY 2
WEEK STRETCH BEFORE MUCH MILDER AIR BEGINS TO OVERTAKE THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH, A
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER, WEAKENING SLOWLY AS IT DOES SO. INITIALLY THERE WILL BE
CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR BELOW 10KFT THANKS TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
HIGH TO THE SOUTH, BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE
QUICKLY AS THE CLIPPER APPROACHES. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
ACCOMPANY A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WEAK OMEGA WILL KEEP RATES LIGHT, BUT
SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF, WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN 1-1.5 INCHES AREA WIDE. ONE THING TO WATCH IS THE
POTENTIAL TO LOSE ICE IN THE DGZ, LEADING TO A LOW PROBABILITY
OF LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONING TO PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. FOR
NOW ANY MENTION OF FZDZ HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST, BUT
THIS POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED MONDAY BEHIND THE
CLIPPER. THEN, A GRADUAL MODERATION WILL OCCUR AS A PACIFIC
AIRMASS BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. A STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM
TRACKING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY SHOULD BRING
THE WARMEST AIR OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE 30S ARE EXPECTED,
WITH LOW 40S NOT BEING RULED OUT. MOST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
ONE SHOULD BE CONFINED TO ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TRACK, BUT ANY
THAT FALLS LOCALLY MAY BE RAIN OR SNOW DEPENDING ON THERMAL
PROFILES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
A LINE OF STRATUS IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD, WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED UNTIL IT
PASSES. BEGINNING AROUND 08Z AT AXN THE STRATUS WILL BE
PROGRESSING UNTIL OUT OF THE AREA AROUND 12Z FOR MKT. AFTER THE
MVFR STRATUS MOVES THROUGH, VFR IS EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES,
BECOMING SKC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS INITIALLY AT
360-020 AROUND 7-9KTS WILL SHIFT BACK TOWARDS 330-360 WITH
SIMILAR SPEEDS LATER IN THE PERIOD.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND S 5-10KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC MVFR -SN. WIND SW 5-15KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...TDH
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