221
FXUS63 KMPX 310445
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1045 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW TOMORROW NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.
- TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ROUGHLY TWO WEEKS, WE WILL ENTER A MILDER
AND MORE ACTIVE (ALBEIT NOTHING MAJOR) FORECAST.
TONIGHT STARTS THE PERIOD OF QUITE COLD STILL, WITH CLEAR SKIES
ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TOMORROW WILL BE
WARMER, BUT MAY STILL FEEL COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOW
20S COMBINING WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA,
GUSTING TO AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY WARM
A BIT OVERNIGHT AS MODEST WAA CONTINUES BEHIND A WARM FRONT.
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS
AROUND A WIDESPREAD 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES OF QPF, TOTALING TO AROUND
1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW. WHILE SNOW IS FALLING, THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED POCKETS OF BLOWING OR DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN MN WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST. WE'VE ALSO
INTRODUCED A LOW CHANCE FOR WINTRY MIX (A COMBINATION OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW) ACROSS WESTERN MN AFTER THE
MAIN BAND OF SNOW MOVES THROUGH AND ICE CRYSTALS BECOME DEPLETED
ALOFT BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. FOR EASTERN MN INTO WESTERN
WI, PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW, AND COULD LINGER
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. FOR AREAS THAT DO SEE ANY FREEZING
DRIZZLE, THE INITIAL ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD LIMIT ICING
IMPACTS WITH THE SNOW ACTING AS A SPONGE FOR THE DRIZZLE.
SOME AREAS MAY REACH ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH
WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE MIDDLE OF JANUARY. WE COOL
DOWN AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY EVENING, THOUGH
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN AT LEAST THE 20S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. THE NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM ARRIVES NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK
AS A SHORTWAVE RIDES DOWN ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A RIDGE.
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF VARIABILITY ACROSS LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
WITH ANYWHERE FROM A FEW TENTHS OF QPF TO NOTHING AT ALL
POSSIBLE. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW,
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY COULD END UP BEING OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD WITH -SN CHANCES ARRIVING LATE. WE
BEING VFR AND SKC ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH SOME SCT MID LEVEL
STRATUS ENCROACHING EAU, OTHERWISE NO CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
MIDDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY ON,
EVENTUALLY BECOMING 170-190 AT OR AROUND 10KTS, INCREASING TO
15G25KTS FOR THE WESTERN SITES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. CHANCES
FOR -SN WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST, BEGINNING ROUGHLY 03Z FOR
AXN/RWF AND AFTER 06Z FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
KMSP...ADDED A LINE WITH -SN FOR THE CURRENT TIMING OF POTENTIAL
SNOWFALL, WHICH FOR RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE ROUGHLY 08-09Z BASED
OFF FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/-SN EARLY, THEN VFR. WIND S TO NW 10KTS.
MON...VFR, CHC -SN LATE. WIND VRB TO NE 5KTS.
TUE...VFR, CHC -SN EARLY. WIND NE 5KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...TDH
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