064
FXUS63 KMPX 310930
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
330 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2.5
INCHES ARE EXPECTED. SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
MAY OCCUR.
- TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
A STRONG 1047 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
EXTENDING NORTH TO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL WEAKEN AND CENTER
ITSELF OVER THE MID SOUTH LATER TODAY. NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH HAS ALLOWED A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS
TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN WI OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES ARE
PRESENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL ERODE
AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.
LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN MT AND WESTERN SD
OVERNIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE EAST SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER TODAY, WEAKENING SLOWLY AS IT DOES SO.
INITIALLY THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR BELOW 10KFT THANKS
TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH, BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE QUICKLY AS THE CLIPPER APPROACHES. THE
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WEAK OMEGA WILL KEEP RATES
LIGHT, BUT SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED. THERE MAY
BE MULTIPLE WAVES, HOWEVER, THAT RESULT IN OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN
THE SNOWFALL. IN ADDITION, THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LOSS OF ICE IN THE DGZ WHICH MAY LEAD TO SHORT TRANSITIONS TO
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE BACKED AWAY FROM
THAT A BIT, BUT THE RAP STILL INDICATES THIS POSSIBILITY. THERE
IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF,
BUT HI-RES AND GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND HEAVIER. SOME
SOLUTIONS HAVE INCREASED TO AS HIGH AS 1/4 INCH, WHICH SEEMS A
BIT OF A STRETCH CONSIDERING PWATS OF 0.4 INCHES AT BEST. AI QPF
OUTPUT REMAINS IN THE RANGE OF 0.1 TO 0.15", WHICH ASIDE FROM A
FEW HEAVIER POCKETS IN EASTERN MN WHERE LIGHT SNOW PERSISTS THE
LONGEST, SEEMS REASONABLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN 1-2.5 INCHES OF
SNOW AREA WIDE BY THE TIME IT TAPERS OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED MONDAY BEHIND THE
CLIPPER. THEN, A GRADUAL MODERATION WILL OCCUR AS A PACIFIC
AIRMASS BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. A STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM
TRACKING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY SHOULD BRING
THE WARMEST AIR OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE 30S ARE EXPECTED,
WITH LOW 40S NOT BEING RULED OUT. MOST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
ONE SHOULD BE CONFINED TO ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TRACK, BUT ANY
THAT FALLS LOCALLY MAY BE RAIN OR SNOW DEPENDING ON THERMAL
PROFILES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD WITH -SN CHANCES ARRIVING LATE. WE
BEING VFR AND SKC ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH SOME SCT MID LEVEL
STRATUS ENCROACHING EAU, OTHERWISE NO CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
MIDDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY ON,
EVENTUALLY BECOMING 170-190 AT OR AROUND 10KTS, INCREASING TO
15G25KTS FOR THE WESTERN SITES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. CHANCES
FOR -SN WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST, BEGINNING ROUGHLY 03Z FOR
AXN/RWF AND AFTER 06Z FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
KMSP...ADDED A LINE WITH -SN FOR THE CURRENT TIMING OF POTENTIAL
SNOWFALL, WHICH FOR RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE ROUGHLY 08-09Z BASED
OFF FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR/-SN EARLY, THEN VFR. WIND S TO NW 10KTS.
MON...VFR, CHC -SN LATE. WIND VRB TO NE 5KTS.
TUE...VFR, CHC -SN EARLY. WIND NE 5KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...TDH
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