096
FXUS63 KMPX 312030
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
230 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AREAWIDE, WITH
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES.
- RELATIVELY WARMER ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO BELOW-
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
LITTLE HAS CHANGED REGARDING THE WAVE OF LIGHT
SNOW THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH A BROAD 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE
HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE LOOKS TO BE NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-94
CORRIDOR. WHILE EARLIER RUNS OF A FEW HIGH-RES MODELS HAD
SUGGESTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 3 TO 4 INCHES, THESE
MODELS HAVE COME MORE IN LINE WITH GLOBAL AND AI SOLUTIONS WHICH
TEND TO HANDLE WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS LIKE THIS WELL, AND SUPPORT
THE ONGOING FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL FALL OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA, LATE TONIGHT
INTO MID MORNING SUNDAY AROUND THE TWIN CITIES METRO, AND LATE
SUNDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN. SOME
GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH COULD CAUSE A BIT OF BLOWING SNOW AS WELL,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA. WHILE THE HIGHEST SNOW
RATES WILL BE TOWARD THE ONSET OF SNOWFALL, OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER AS LATE AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS IN.
DESPITE THE SNOW, TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE THE
WARMEST THEY'VE BEEN IN OVER 2 WEEKS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 20S AREAWIDE, AND POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. THIS WOULD MAKE IT THE FIRST ABOVE-AVERAGE DAY
TEMPERATURE-WISE SINCE JANUARY 16. THE "WARM UP" WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED HOWEVER, WITH HIGHS ONLY REBOUNDING INTO THE TEENS ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY FOR MOST AREAS. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND, ONE
THAT COULD EVEN START MELTING SOME SNOW, WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 30S
AND EVEN LOWER 40S. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE REGION WITH POTENTIAL LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
THE LAST OF THE IFR CIGS AND LINGERING FLURRIES OVER WESTERN WI
HAVE SCATTERED OUT. VFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, THEN LOWER GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
EVENING. TONIGHT'S ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE INCOMING CLIPPER
OVER THE DAKOTAS. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN MN
LATE EVENING, SPREADING EAST OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN MVFR TO IFR LEVELS DURING THE SNOW, WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL LIKELY JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. LIGHT SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH & INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
MAJORITY OF THE TAF BEFORE TURN TO THE W & NW BY END OF TAF FOR
OUR MN SITES.
KMSP...NO CONCERNS TODAY OR THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD
BEGIN AROUND 09Z TONIGHT, BECOMING STEADIER AFTER 11Z. THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WIND VRB TO NE 5 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND NE 5KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND W 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DPH
AVIATION...BPH
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