223
FXUS63 KMPX 312316
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
516 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AREAWIDE, WITH
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES.
- RELATIVELY WARMER ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO BELOW-
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
LITTLE HAS CHANGED REGARDING THE WAVE OF LIGHT
SNOW THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH A BROAD 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE
HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE LOOKS TO BE NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-94
CORRIDOR. WHILE EARLIER RUNS OF A FEW HIGH-RES MODELS HAD
SUGGESTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 3 TO 4 INCHES, THESE
MODELS HAVE COME MORE IN LINE WITH GLOBAL AND AI SOLUTIONS WHICH
TEND TO HANDLE WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS LIKE THIS WELL, AND SUPPORT
THE ONGOING FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL FALL OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA, LATE TONIGHT
INTO MID MORNING SUNDAY AROUND THE TWIN CITIES METRO, AND LATE
SUNDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN. SOME
GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH COULD CAUSE A BIT OF BLOWING SNOW AS WELL,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA. WHILE THE HIGHEST SNOW
RATES WILL BE TOWARD THE ONSET OF SNOWFALL, OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER AS LATE AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS IN.
DESPITE THE SNOW, TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE THE
WARMEST THEY'VE BEEN IN OVER 2 WEEKS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 20S AREAWIDE, AND POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. THIS WOULD MAKE IT THE FIRST ABOVE-AVERAGE DAY
TEMPERATURE-WISE SINCE JANUARY 16. THE "WARM UP" WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED HOWEVER, WITH HIGHS ONLY REBOUNDING INTO THE TEENS ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY FOR MOST AREAS. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND, ONE
THAT COULD EVEN START MELTING SOME SNOW, WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 30S
AND EVEN LOWER 40S. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE REGION WITH POTENTIAL LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 506 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A CORRIDOR OF SNOW MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS, ABOUT TO REACH PARTS OF WESTERN MINNESOTA. THIS SNOW IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD 1
TO 2 INCHES OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN
PLACE TO START THE PERIOD, THOUGH CIGS AND VIS WILL QUICKLY DROP
AS THE SNOW MOVES EAST TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR/IFR DURING
THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES ALONG THE INITIAL CORRIDOR. THERE
IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG AND HOW WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE INITIAL PUSH OF SNOW. IT COULD BE THE
CASE WHERE THERE IS MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS RATHER THAN
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH,
BECOMING OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AHEAD AND JUST AFTER THE INITIAL
PUSH OF SNOW. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SUNDAY, SHIFTING
THE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND LIKELY BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT.
KMSP...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN AROUND 09Z TONIGHT, BECOMING
STEADIER AFTER 11Z. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF SNOW BY 1-2 HOURS. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOWER FOR THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND 18-19Z. THERE IS A CHANCE IT IS LESS
WIDESPREAD TO WHERE THE STEADY SNOW ENDS SOONER RATHER THAN
LATER.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WIND VRB TO NE 5 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND NE 5KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND W 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DPH
AVIATION...BED
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page