509
FXUS63 KMPX 010541
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1141 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AREAWIDE, WITH
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES.
- RELATIVELY WARMER ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO BELOW-
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
LITTLE HAS CHANGED REGARDING THE WAVE OF LIGHT
SNOW THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH A BROAD 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE
HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE LOOKS TO BE NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-94
CORRIDOR. WHILE EARLIER RUNS OF A FEW HIGH-RES MODELS HAD
SUGGESTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 3 TO 4 INCHES, THESE
MODELS HAVE COME MORE IN LINE WITH GLOBAL AND AI SOLUTIONS WHICH
TEND TO HANDLE WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS LIKE THIS WELL, AND SUPPORT
THE ONGOING FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL FALL OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA, LATE TONIGHT
INTO MID MORNING SUNDAY AROUND THE TWIN CITIES METRO, AND LATE
SUNDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN. SOME
GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH COULD CAUSE A BIT OF BLOWING SNOW AS WELL,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA. WHILE THE HIGHEST SNOW
RATES WILL BE TOWARD THE ONSET OF SNOWFALL, OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER AS LATE AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS IN.
DESPITE THE SNOW, TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE THE
WARMEST THEY'VE BEEN IN OVER 2 WEEKS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 20S AREAWIDE, AND POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. THIS WOULD MAKE IT THE FIRST ABOVE-AVERAGE DAY
TEMPERATURE-WISE SINCE JANUARY 16. THE "WARM UP" WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED HOWEVER, WITH HIGHS ONLY REBOUNDING INTO THE TEENS ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY FOR MOST AREAS. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND, ONE
THAT COULD EVEN START MELTING SOME SNOW, WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 30S
AND EVEN LOWER 40S. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE REGION WITH POTENTIAL LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
LIGHT SNOW IS BEGINNING TO REACH WESTERN MN AND WILL CONTINUE
EAST OVERNIGHT. THE STEADIEST SNOW SHOULD BE WITHIN THE FIRST 3
OR 4 HOURS AFTER IT BEGINS, THEN BECOME OCCASIONAL AND LIGHTER
INTO SUNDAY. CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS
WITH CIGS LINGERING INTO SUNDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH ON SUNDAY, SHIFTING THE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND
LIKELY BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEHIND THE FRONT.
KMSP...LIGHT SNOW STILL LOOKS TO BEGIN BETWEEN 09-10Z, WITH THE
STEADIEST OCCURRING THROUGH 14Z. OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO AT LEAST MID SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE TAPERING OFF.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WIND VRB TO NE 5 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND NE 5KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND W 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DPH
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
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