445
FXUS63 KMPX 011713
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1113 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TODAY WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES.
- MILDER TODAY, THEN A RETURN TO BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
A WELL-DEVELOPED BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MN EARLY THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO LESS
THAN A MILE IN SOME INSTANCES, INDICATING STEADY SNOW RATES. THE
SNOW WILL REACH WESTERN WI BY SUNRISE, THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN.
HOWEVER, AN IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN SD WILL
CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AND LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO AFTERNOON
NORTH AND EAST OF IT. RATES WON'T BE AS IMPRESSIVE, BUT ANOTHER
SEVERAL HOURS OF OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN MN AND WI INTO THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
QPF ON CAMS AND GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME IN LINE WITH THE LIGHTER
AI MODELS OF 0.1-0.15 INCHES, SO A BROAD 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
STILL EXPECTED FOR STORM TOTALS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S TODAY, WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING ANOTHER
SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO JUST BELOW NORMAL LEVELS EARLY THIS WEEK. ANOTHER CLIPPER,
ALTHOUGH QUITE WEAK, WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TO
NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN, BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE.
A STRONGER CLIPPER WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY. THIS ONE WILL PUT US IN THE WARM SECTOR AND ALLOW MUCH
MILDER AIR TO FLOOD THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S ARE EXPECTED. A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH WILL COME THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE SURFACE
FRONT ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MN TO WI.
SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITHIN
THIS CORRIDOR.
IMPRESSIVE RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST AND TROUGHING IN THE EAST
WILL PUT US IN A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME LATE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS A LOT OF SPREAD WITH TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS PERIOD AND MAY TREND WARMER OR COLDER WITH TIME DEPENDING
ON HOW THE RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN EVOLVES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1051 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
A STEADIER BURST OF SNOW HAS MATERIALIZED ACROSS CENTRAL MN THIS
MORNING AND IS PUSHING EAST INTO WISCONSIN TO START THE PERIOD.
VISIBILITIES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN AROUND 1SM WITH THIS BURST,
THOUGH SOME SITES HAVE DROPPED AS LOW AS 1/2SM. SNOW WILL TAPER
OFF PRETTY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
BECOMING LESS LIKELY. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR TONIGHT,
GRADUALLY SCATTERING OUT TOMORROW MORNING, BECOMING VFR BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS START OUT OF THE WEST FOR THE PERIOD,
BUT WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BURST OF SNOW
WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
KMSP...VISIBILITIES COULD BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 1SM AS THIS BURST
OF SNOW MOVES THROUGH, THOUGH WE EXPECT TO STAY MOSTLY AT 1SM OR
BETTER. LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL END BY AROUND 20-22Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NE 5KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND W 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR, CHC MVFR. WIND S 5-10 KTS BCMG SW 10-15G20KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...BED
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