294
FXUS63 KMPX 020505
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1105 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW ENDING ACROSS MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON, AND ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.
- MORE WEAK CLIPPERS WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR I-35 IS BRINGING A QUICK END TO THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW, WHICH ENDED UP NEAR OR JUST UNDER 2 INCHES
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN
WISCONSIN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE COMING TO AN END BY MID
TO LATE EVENING. TEMPERATURES NEAR AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
HAVE WARMED WELL INTO THE 20S AND EVEN NEAR 30S IN SOME AREAS,
BUT WILL SLIDE BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. BELOW-
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MAKE THEIR RETURN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS.
THIS EVER-PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, ALBEIT WITHOUT THE DEEP
SURGES OF COLD AIR THAT PLAGUED MUCH OF THE REGION IN JANUARY.
IN FACT THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL SEE NEAR- TO ABOVE-
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH A QUICK JUMP TO ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ON THURSDAY WHEN SOME AREAS COULD PUSH 40
DEGREES. AS EXPECTED IN SUCH A FLOW PATTERN, THERE WILL BE A FEW
MORE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH LIGHT CLIPPER SYSTEMS THAT
PASS THROUGH THE REGION. THE FIRST WILL IMPACT MAINLY SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA MONDAY EVENING WITH VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, IF
ANY. A SIMILARLY WEAK SYSTEM WILL TRACK A BIT FURTHER NORTH INTO
CENTRAL MN ON WEDNESDAY, AGAIN WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IF ANYTHING AT ALL. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM WILL
TRACK EVEN FURTHER NORTH AND EAST LATE THURSDAY WITH SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. RIGHT NOW THE HIGHEST SNOW CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN, BUT THERE
IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS WITH THAT
SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE SUNDAY SNOWFALL. LOW PRESSURE
IN NORTHERN ONTARIO IS MAINTAINING WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE AND
SOME LIFT OVER MN/WI AND THIS IS HELPING KEEP THE MVFR ALONG
WITH SOME FLURRIES. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO MID MORNING MONDAY, SO HAVE KEPT THE MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY
WINDS IN SOME AREAS WILL DECREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
KMSP...FEW ADDITIONAL CONCERNS. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR
INTO MID MORNING BEFORE INCREASING TO VFR. THERE IS SOME CHANCE
CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR PRIOR TO THEN, BUT CONFIDENCE OF
THAT HAPPENING IS LESS THAN AVERAGE, HENCE KEEPING IT MVFR FOR
NOW. ANY FLURRIES ARE UNLIKELY TO REDUCE VISIBILITY TO MVFR.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NE 5KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND W 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR, CHC MVFR. WIND S 5-10 KTS BCMG SW 10-15G20KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DPH
AVIATION...TDK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page