797
FXUS63 KMPX 020858
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
258 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MOSTLY QUIET WEEK AHEAD WITH VARYING TEMPERATURES AND A FEW
LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO BREAK UP THIS
MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, BUT HIGHER CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN INCREASING LATER THIS MORNING AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS LONG AS THE LOWER STRATUS IS IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THE NEXT WAVE WILL TRACK FROM MT TO EASTERN SD BY
THIS EVENING AND THEN TO SOUTHERN IA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SOME
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. A FEW
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTHEAST, BUT DRY AIR UNDER THE
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL KEEP CHANCES LOW. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS MN TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WEST OF
I-35.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY WILL
OCCUR THANKS TO A CLIPPER TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN
CANADA. LATEST GUIDANCE IS QUITE A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN IN
PREVIOUS DAYS, SO POPS CONTINUE TO DECLINE. THIS SHIFT ALSO
INCREASES THE CHANCE OF BREAKING 40 FOR HIGHS THURSDAY TO ABOUT
60 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN. THE SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT SOUTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY WHICH WILL KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND BACK INTO THE
30S OR 40S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE SUNDAY SNOWFALL. LOW PRESSURE
IN NORTHERN ONTARIO IS MAINTAINING WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE AND
SOME LIFT OVER MN/WI AND THIS IS HELPING KEEP THE MVFR ALONG
WITH SOME FLURRIES. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO MID MORNING MONDAY, SO HAVE KEPT THE MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY
WINDS IN SOME AREAS WILL DECREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
KMSP...FEW ADDITIONAL CONCERNS. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR
INTO MID MORNING BEFORE INCREASING TO VFR. THERE IS SOME CHANCE
CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR PRIOR TO THEN, BUT CONFIDENCE OF
THAT HAPPENING IS LESS THAN AVERAGE, HENCE KEEPING IT MVFR FOR
NOW. ANY FLURRIES ARE UNLIKELY TO REDUCE VISIBILITY TO MVFR.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NE 5KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND W 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR, CHC MVFR. WIND S 5-10 KTS BCMG SW 10-15G20KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...TDK
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