205
FXUS63 KMPX 021723
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1123 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MOSTLY QUIET WEEK AHEAD WITH VARYING TEMPERATURES AND A FEW
LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO BREAK UP THIS
MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, BUT HIGHER CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN INCREASING LATER THIS MORNING AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS LONG AS THE LOWER STRATUS IS IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THE NEXT WAVE WILL TRACK FROM MT TO EASTERN SD BY
THIS EVENING AND THEN TO SOUTHERN IA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SOME
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. A FEW
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTHEAST, BUT DRY AIR UNDER THE
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL KEEP CHANCES LOW. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS MN TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WEST OF
I-35.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY WILL
OCCUR THANKS TO A CLIPPER TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN
CANADA. LATEST GUIDANCE IS QUITE A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN IN
PREVIOUS DAYS, SO POPS CONTINUE TO DECLINE. THIS SHIFT ALSO
INCREASES THE CHANCE OF BREAKING 40 FOR HIGHS THURSDAY TO ABOUT
60 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN. THE SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT SOUTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY WHICH WILL KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND BACK INTO THE
30S OR 40S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1104 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, WITH A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF -SN OR
FLURRIES ONLY FOR RWF AS ALL OF IT PASSES TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THERE IS SOME CONFLICTING MODEL GUIDANCE CONCERNING A LINE OF
STRATUS THAT WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE REGION
BEGINNING 06Z IN THE NORTH TO 11Z IN THE SOUTH, WITH A SPLIT
BETWEEN WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS AND FEW/SCT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE
CAMS IN GENERAL ARE BULLISH ON IFR CIGS, HOWEVER THERE IS ALSO
LOW LEVEL OMEGA WHICH DOESN'T SEEM REALISTIC GIVEN THE LOCATION
OF THE EXPECTED FRONT AND SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT. GIVEN THIS,
ELECTED TO GO MAINLY FEW/SCT IFR LEVELS CLOUDS WITH A FEW SITES
SEEING BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS, MAINLY ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE
AREA BEING AXN/STC. WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH A
DIRECTION FAVORING 330-360, HOWEVER LIGHT ENOUGH SUCH THAT VRB
WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY AFTER 00Z.
KMSP...THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL SPLIT IS THE MAIN DECISION
POINT, WHETHER OR NOT TO COMMIT TO IFR CIGS AFTER 08Z.
CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS ABOUT 70-80% THAT WE WILL NOT SEE A CIG, AND
RATHER SEE FEW/SCT015 FROM THE STRATUS DISSIPATING AS IT ARRIVES
THANKS TO DRY AIR ALOFT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND SW 5-10KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND NW 10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...TDH
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