773
FXUS63 KMPX 172129
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
329 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW POTENTIAL RUMBLES OF THUNDER
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
- RAIN TRANSITIONS OVER TO SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2" ARE EXPECTED
IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
- INCREASING TREND FOR A NARROW BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO ADD
AN ADDITIONAL 1-3"+ ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA DOWN TOWARDS TWIN
CITIES METRO.
- TURNING COLDER LATE WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY - MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
THERE ARE SEVERAL MOVING PARTS TO THIS FORECAST, WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES OUR LOW PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ADDITIONAL AREAS OF
LOW PRESSURE LINGERING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. OUR FIRST WAVE
OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP AS RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING,
POTENTIALLY EVEN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER OR SMALL HAIL ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN WITH THE HREF NOTING A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE.
THE SUB-990MB LOW WILL BEGIN TO OCCLUDE AS IT MOVES RIGHT OVER
CENTRAL MN. WITH THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE, 12-18Z, WE'VE
SEEN A PRETTY DRAMATIC INCREASE IN FORCING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
EDGE OF THE LOW. IN TURN, SEVERAL HI-RES MODELS HAVE STARTED TO
MATCH SIMILAR TO WHAT A NUMBER OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN
HINTING AT, WITH A DEFORMATION BAND PRODUCING ACCUMULATING SNOW
ON THAT SOUTHWEST EDGE. THIS TREND DOES HAVE US CONCERNED,
BECAUSE EVEN WITH THE SNOW BEING A WETTER, HEAVIER SNOW, THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND FALLING SNOW COULD LEAD TO A
RAMP UP IN IMPACTS FOR WEDNESDAY. WE ARE NOT ISSUING WINTER
HEADLINES WITH THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE IN ORDER TO AVOID
JUMPING THE GUN IN CASE HI-RES GUIDANCE SETTLES BACK DOWN,
THOUGH WE WANT TO EMPHASIZE THE POTENTIAL AND GIVE A HEADS UP
THAT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLY WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE OPEN AREAS OF WESTERN WI. FOR AREAS CLOSER TO
THE METRO, A LOT WOULD HAVE TO COME TOGETHER FOR A HEADLINE TO
BE NEEDED, THOUGH IF THE TREND FOR A NARROW BAND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW (AND WIND) CONTINUES, A SHORTER-FUSED ALERT MAY BE
LEVERAGED.
THE REASON FOR THIS HIGH UNCERTAINTY DESPITE THE EVENT STARTING
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE MODELS ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE A
STRONG, YET OCCLUDING LOW PRESSURE. SHOULD THAT BAND OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW DEVELOP, IT IS LIKELY YOU HAVE A VERY SHARP
CUTOFF WITH THE DRY SLOT TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL, QPF LOOKS TO BE
AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN, WITH AREAS FURTHER NORTH SEEING THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS. THAT TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL BE KEY, WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL MN. AN
EARLIER TRANSITION WOULD SUPPORT HIGHER AMOUNTS, WHICH IS THE
WAY WE HAVE BEEN TRENDING WITH OUR FORECAST. AT THE SAME TIME,
FORCING MAY WEAKEN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW AS IT
OCCLUDES, LIMITING RATES. UP TO AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OF QPF
IS POSSIBLE, FALLING AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. THERE IS A HIGH
CEILING FOR TOTALS ACROSS CENTRAL MN DOWN TOWARDS PORTIONS OF
THE TWIN CITIES METRO, WITH THE EURO, AIFS, HRRR, AND NAM
PRODUCING UPWARDS OF 3 TO 8 INCHES WITHIN THE NARROW BAND. ON
THE FLIP SIDE, YOU HAVE THE RRFS AND GFS WHICH KEEP THINGS
NORTH AND GENERALLY LIGHTER FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. FOR NOW, WE
WOULD HAZARD BELIEVING THESE OUTPUTS, THOUGH THEY WARRANT
ATTENTION GIVEN THAT EVEN 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
COULD LEAD TO IMPACTS. ESPECIALLY SINCE THE FORECAST UP TO THIS
POINT HAS BEEN FOR THE MAJORITY OF SNOW TO STAY NORTH.
THE FUN CONTINUES THURSDAY, WITH THOSE ADDITIONAL AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE FALLING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, DEVELOPING ANOTHER ROUND
OF ACCUMULATING SNOW THAT TRACKS NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER AND CUTS
UP NORTH THROUGH PORTIONS OF SE MN INTO W WI. CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED FOR LIGHTER SNOW AMOUNTS AS MODELS SEEM TO BE LOCKING
IN TO A COMMON SOLUTION, PRODUCING LESS OF A BROAD STROKE FOR
OUR SNOWFALL FOOTPRINT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS SETTLE IN AROUND 1 TO 3
INCHES, STRETCHING FROM ALBERT LEA UP TOWARDS EAU CLAIRE. THIS
EVENT DOES NOT LOOK TO HAVE AS HIGH OF A CEILING, AND AT THE
VERY LEAST WE CAN EXPECT TO HAVE IMPACTS TO THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING TRAVEL.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND, SUPPORTING OUR
COOL DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL. THERE'S AT LEAST SOME SUGGESTION FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES THIS WEEKEND, THOUGH MOST FOLKS CAN
EXPECT TO REMAIN DRY UNTIL NEXT WEEK TUE/WED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE E/SE TODAY, GENERALLY GUSTING UP TO
25 TO 30 KTS. THERE ARE SEVERAL MOVING PARTS TO THE FORECAST,
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW BOTH POSSIBLE. RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING, MAINLY IMPACTING AXN & STC, THOUGH
BRIEF IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MSP, RNH, MKT, AND EAU. AS THE
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, A DRY SLOT SHOULD LIMIT
OVERNIGHT PRECIP FOR AREAS SOUTH OF AXN & STC. AT THE SAME TIME,
A PERIOD OF LLWS SHOULD DEVELOP FOR AREAS NORTH OF RWF & MKT.
WINDS WEAKEN OVERNIGHT, BUT EVENTUALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SECOND WAVE OF PRECIP,
LIKELY A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW FOR
AREAS FURTHER NORTH, IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
CIGS START OFF VFR THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MOST SITES DROPPING TO
MVFR OR IFR TONIGHT. CIGS COULD HOLD MVFR/IFR DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW, THOUGH IT'LL DEPEND ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE DRY
SLOT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A TIGHT CUTOFF FROM LOW STRATUS TO
VFR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
KMSP...MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR ANY RAIN WILL BE DURING THE
EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT THE
SHOWERS LINGER PAST 08Z, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
AT THIS TIME. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE A POTENTIAL
SWITCHOVER TO RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. CHC IFR/-SN LATE. WIND N 10-15 KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHC IFR/-SN EARLY. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC MVFR. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR BROWN-LAC
QUI PARLE-MARTIN-REDWOOD-WATONWAN-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 4 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR BLUE EARTH-
FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-STEELE-WASECA.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...BED
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page