313
FXUS63 KMPX 180942
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
342 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN TRANSITIONS OVER TO SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATER THIS MORNING.
- INCREASING TREND FOR A NARROW BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH 2
TO 4" POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA DOWN TOWARDS
TWIN CITIES METRO.
- TURNING COLDER LATE WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY - MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
A NOT-SO-QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT AS A RATHER IMPRESSIVE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SPINS OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING HEAVY
SNOWFALL FROM THE NORTH SHORE ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE
DAKOTAS. WE'RE DEALING WITH RAIN AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S. CURRENT RADAR HIGHLIGHTS A BAND OF RAIN STRETCHING FROM LA
CROSSE, WI NORTHWEST THROUGH TODD COUNTY AND WILL LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. UNFORTUNATELY, ANY
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINED NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THOSE
OF US HOPING FOR SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF OVERHEAD TODAY AS AN
IMPRESSIVE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND E NOAM. OUR SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AND SLOWLY
FILL IN AS IT DRIFTS FROM CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST WI. TODAY'S
FORECAST HAS SHIFTED A BIT FROM YESTERDAY MORNING WHILE THE LARGE
PROCESSES REALLY HAVEN'T. THE MAIN CHANGE IS FOR A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION TO FORM ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE AND
LEAD TO ADDITIONAL 0.10" TO 0.25"+ OF QPF FOR THOSE SOUTH OF THE SFC
LOW. THIS WAS A SOLUTION THAT THAT THE AIFS HAS BEEN HINTING AT FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AND ONE WE'VE DISCUSSED INTERNALLY AS A POTENTIAL. IT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH WHERE EXACTLY THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION SETS
UP SO SLIGHT CHANGES IN THE FORECAST ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE SFC LOW INTO W MN AND CONTINUE
TO PUSH EAST AFTER DAYBREAK. PRECIPITION WILL CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN
TO SNOW BY MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS W MN AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR
C/E MN. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL POSSIBLE. WEST WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN MN THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH LIKELY. THE
COMBINATION OF BOTH STRONG WINDS AND ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL HAS
PROMPTED FOR US TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST-CENTRAL MN UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT. FALLING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO REDUCED VISIBILITY AND SLICK TRAVEL THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS BAND OF SNOW SHOULD TRACK ROUGHLY FROM MORRIS MN TO THE TWIN
CITIES AND INTO FAR WESTERN WI. AN INCH OR TWO WILL FALL IN THE TWIN
CITIES METRO, BUT THE LATEST TRENDS ON THE HRRR HINT AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER AMOUNTS COULD EXTEND FROM W MN INTO TWIN
CITIES METRO.
COLDER WEATHER WILL BE ARRIVING FOR SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. ON THURSDAY, LIGHT SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS TO
OVER NORTHERN WI. HOWEVER, AS THIS INITIAL SFC LOW SLOWLY FILLS IN,
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF CO THURSDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE A SFC LOW THAT TRACKS FROM KANSAS CITY TO THE QUAD CITIES AND
INTO GREEN BAY. THIS TRACK PLACES US ON THE NORTHWESTERN FRINGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. CURRENT FORECAST SUPPORT SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ALONG I-90 IN S MN AND WESTERN WI THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST EPS PROBABILITIES OF 1" OF SNOW OF
30 TO 50% ALONG I-90 AND 50 TO 60% AT EAU CLAIRE WI. THOSE
PROBABILITIES TANK TO 20% FOR 3"+. THIS HIGHLIGHTS THE LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TRACK & INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TOWARD NORMAL VALUES FOR THE WEEKEND AS
WE'LL DRY OUT BEHIND THESE SYSTEMS. THE CULPRIT IS A 1050MB HIGH
NOSING IN FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES, WE'LL SEE OUR FIRST BOUT OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SINCE THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY. THIS
SHOULD KEEP US DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURN BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SEEING MORE SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND THUS
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL EPS MEMBERS THAT
HINT AT A STORM BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 28TH OF FEBRUARY. THIS IS WORTH
WATCHING AS IT COULD ADD ADDITIONAL PRECIPITION BEFORE THE END OF
THE MONTH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
QUITE THE MESSY SET OF TAFS GIVEN THE PRECIP SCENARIO, SHIFTING
WINDS, LLWS AND DROPPING CEILINGS.
FOR PRECIP, KMPX RADAR IS SHOWING ONE SWATH OF RAINFALL MAINLY
NEAR AND NORTH OF I-94 WITH A SECOND DEVELOPING NEAR AND SOUTH
OF THE MINNESOTA RIVER. RAIN WILL FILL IN OVER MUCH OF MN AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH SUNRISE. THINGS GET MORE
COMPLICATED AS IT BECOMES A TIMING ISSUE OF THE MIXING WITH AND
EVENTUAL CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. THE CHANGEOVER WILL OCCUR FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS CENTRAL-SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN WI, THUS AXN-STC
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE PRIOR TO 00Z TOMORROW EVENING. THE
CHANGEOVER AT MSP LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING PUSH, WITH -SN PREVAILING AFTER DARK WEDNESDAY EVENING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SE TO S THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, THEN
QUICKLY SHIFT TO SW AND W AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW AND REMAIN
THERE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
AROUND 15G25KTS, WITH W AND S MN NEARING 20G30KTS AT TIMES,
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY THEN DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
CEILINGS HAVE STARTED OUT AS A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR, WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT ALL SITES WILL DROP TO MVFR BY THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. WESTERN-
CENTRAL MN (THUS AXN-STC) LIKELY DROPPING TO IFR FOR A PERIOD
OVERNIGHT. SIMILARLY, WESTERN WI MAY HAVE IFR CEILINGS AT TIMES
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
KMSP...INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS AT INITIALIZATION WILL TURN
INTO MORE SUSTAINED RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARDS SUNRISE. AFTER A SMALL LATE
MORNING LULL, ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY BUT
AS A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY.
PREVAILING -SN LOOKS LIKELY AFTER SUNSET WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN MVFR
FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE TAF DURATION. IFR CEILINGS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, BUT CEILINGS BETWEEN 1-2 KFT ARE
CERTAINLY VIABLE LATE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. CHC IFR/-SN LATE. WIND N 10-15 KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHC IFR/-SN EARLY. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC MVFR. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
DOUGLAS-KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-POPE-STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BROWN-LAC QUI PARLE-
MARTIN-REDWOOD-WATONWAN-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR BLUE EARTH-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-STEELE-WASECA.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...JPC
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