392
FXUS63 KMPX 181235
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
635 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN TRANSITIONS OVER TO SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATER THIS MORNING.
- INCREASING TREND FOR A NARROW BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH 2
TO 4" POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA DOWN TOWARDS
TWIN CITIES METRO.
- TURNING COLDER LATE WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY - MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
A NOT-SO-QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT AS A RATHER IMPRESSIVE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SPINS OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING HEAVY
SNOWFALL FROM THE NORTH SHORE ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE
DAKOTAS. WE'RE DEALING WITH RAIN AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S. CURRENT RADAR HIGHLIGHTS A BAND OF RAIN STRETCHING FROM LA
CROSSE, WI NORTHWEST THROUGH TODD COUNTY AND WILL LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. UNFORTUNATELY, ANY
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINED NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THOSE
OF US HOPING FOR SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF OVERHEAD TODAY AS AN
IMPRESSIVE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND E NOAM. OUR SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AND SLOWLY
FILL IN AS IT DRIFTS FROM CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST WI. TODAY'S
FORECAST HAS SHIFTED A BIT FROM YESTERDAY MORNING WHILE THE LARGE
PROCESSES REALLY HAVEN'T. THE MAIN CHANGE IS FOR A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION TO FORM ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE AND
LEAD TO ADDITIONAL 0.10" TO 0.25"+ OF QPF FOR THOSE SOUTH OF THE SFC
LOW. THIS WAS A SOLUTION THAT THAT THE AIFS HAS BEEN HINTING AT FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AND ONE WE'VE DISCUSSED INTERNALLY AS A POTENTIAL. IT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH WHERE EXACTLY THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION SETS
UP SO SLIGHT CHANGES IN THE FORECAST ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE SFC LOW INTO W MN AND CONTINUE
TO PUSH EAST AFTER DAYBREAK. PRECIPITION WILL CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN
TO SNOW BY MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS W MN AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR
C/E MN. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL POSSIBLE. WEST WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN MN THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH LIKELY. THE
COMBINATION OF BOTH STRONG WINDS AND ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL HAS
PROMPTED FOR US TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST-CENTRAL MN UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT. FALLING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO REDUCED VISIBILITY AND SLICK TRAVEL THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS BAND OF SNOW SHOULD TRACK ROUGHLY FROM MORRIS MN TO THE TWIN
CITIES AND INTO FAR WESTERN WI. AN INCH OR TWO WILL FALL IN THE TWIN
CITIES METRO, BUT THE LATEST TRENDS ON THE HRRR HINT AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER AMOUNTS COULD EXTEND FROM W MN INTO TWIN
CITIES METRO.
COLDER WEATHER WILL BE ARRIVING FOR SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. ON THURSDAY, LIGHT SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS TO
OVER NORTHERN WI. HOWEVER, AS THIS INITIAL SFC LOW SLOWLY FILLS IN,
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF CO THURSDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE A SFC LOW THAT TRACKS FROM KANSAS CITY TO THE QUAD CITIES AND
INTO GREEN BAY. THIS TRACK PLACES US ON THE NORTHWESTERN FRINGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. CURRENT FORECAST SUPPORT SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ALONG I-90 IN S MN AND WESTERN WI THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST EPS PROBABILITIES OF 1" OF SNOW OF
30 TO 50% ALONG I-90 AND 50 TO 60% AT EAU CLAIRE WI. THOSE
PROBABILITIES TANK TO 20% FOR 3"+. THIS HIGHLIGHTS THE LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TRACK & INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TOWARD NORMAL VALUES FOR THE WEEKEND AS
WE'LL DRY OUT BEHIND THESE SYSTEMS. THE CULPRIT IS A 1050MB HIGH
NOSING IN FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES, WE'LL SEE OUR FIRST BOUT OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SINCE THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY. THIS
SHOULD KEEP US DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURN BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SEEING MORE SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND THUS
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL EPS MEMBERS THAT
HINT AT A STORM BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 28TH OF FEBRUARY. THIS IS WORTH
WATCHING AS IT COULD ADD ADDITIONAL PRECIPITION BEFORE THE END OF
THE MONTH.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 611 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
KEY TO THE FORECAST TODAY IS WHERE WILL THE SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SETS UP. SOUTH OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH, A
DEFORMATION BAND OF SNOW WILL DEVELOP BY LATE THIS MORNING.
CURRENT TRENDS PUT THIS TROUGH IN CENTRAL MN, WITH AXN/STC
SITTING IN A BIT A PRECIP LULL, WITH A HEALTHY BURST OF SNOW
DEVELOPING FOR RWF TO MSP, POSSIBLY EVEN GETTING DOWN INTO MKT
AS WELL. THIS SNOW BAND WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE WI TERMINALS AS
WELL. CURRENT TAFS LEANED HEAVILY INTO THE RAP FORECAST, WHICH
BASED ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE SNOW BAND IS COMING OUT OF ABR TOWARD
CANBY LOOKS TO HAVE DONE A REASONABLE JOB WITH THE MORE SOUTHERN
PLACEMENT OF THIS SNOW BAND. THIS SNOW BAND WILL START TO FIZZLE
OUT AROUND 00Z, WITH CIGS POSSIBLY IMPROVING THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, BY THEN END OF THE PERIOD RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW IFR CIGS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA AGAIN, SO DO END THESE TAFS ON A
PESSIMISTIC NOTE. AS FOR WINDS, THEY'VE COME IN HOTTER THAN
FORECAST SOUTH OF THE LOW, SO DID BOOST SPEEDS AT RWF/MKT.
KMSP...PROSPECTS FOR SNOW CONTINUE TO INCREASE AT MSP. ALTHOUGH
IT'S STILL IN THE LOW 40S NOW, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE COLD
ENOUGH BY 18Z TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW AT MSP. THE HEART OF THE BAND
IS EXPECTED TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF MSP. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SNOW (SO A "WARM" SNOW), BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR 2-3" AT MSP IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO. ADD INTO
THIS GUSTY WINDS OUT OF A 230 TO 250 DIRECTION RESULTING IN
CROSS WINDS WITH THAT SNOW AND WE HAVE POTENTIAL TO REALLY
THROTTLE BACK CAPACITY AT MSP THIS AFTERNOON IF THEY ARE FORCED
INTO A 22 OPS. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. CHC IFR/-SN LATE. WIND N 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHC IFR/-SN EARLY. WIND NW 10-20 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS. WIND NW 10-20 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
DOUGLAS-KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-POPE-STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BROWN-LAC QUI
PARLE-MARTIN-REDWOOD-WATONWAN-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BLUE EARTH-
FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-STEELE-WASECA.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...MPG
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