327
FXUS63 KMPX 181754
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1154 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN TRANSITIONS OVER TO SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATER THIS MORNING.
- INCREASING TREND FOR A NARROW BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH 2
TO 4" POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA DOWN TOWARDS
TWIN CITIES METRO.
- TURNING COLDER LATE WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY - MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
THE COMBINATION OF STEADY, FALLING SNOW AND WINDS GUSTING OVER
40-50 MPH HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER
MILE OR LESS IN YELLOW MEDICINE, REDWOOD, AND BROWN COUNTIES IN
SOUTHWEST MN. WE HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
VIA LAW ENFORCEMENT, AND WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WE ANTICIPATE THESE CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE OR WORSEN AT TIMES. THIS IS A SMALLER COVERAGE AREA
FOR THE WARNING GIVEN THE NARROW SETUP OF THE HEAVIEST BAND AND
THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING SOUTH OF THE
MINNESOTA RIVER. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE OF THIS 3 COUNTY WARNING AREA, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON THE AREAL EXTENT OR DURATION THAT IT WOULD OCCUR. IN
ADDITION TO THIS UPGRADE, WE HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY SOUTH A ROW OF COUNTIES TO INCLUDE WATONWAN, BLUE
EARTH, WASECA, AND STEELE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
A NOT-SO-QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT AS A RATHER IMPRESSIVE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SPINS OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING HEAVY
SNOWFALL FROM THE NORTH SHORE ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE
DAKOTAS. WE'RE DEALING WITH RAIN AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S. CURRENT RADAR HIGHLIGHTS A BAND OF RAIN STRETCHING FROM LA
CROSSE, WI NORTHWEST THROUGH TODD COUNTY AND WILL LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. UNFORTUNATELY, ANY
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINED NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THOSE
OF US HOPING FOR SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF OVERHEAD TODAY AS AN
IMPRESSIVE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IS SET UP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND E NOAM. OUR SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AND SLOWLY
FILL IN AS IT DRIFTS FROM CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST WI. TODAY'S
FORECAST HAS SHIFTED A BIT FROM YESTERDAY MORNING WHILE THE LARGE
PROCESSES REALLY HAVEN'T. THE MAIN CHANGE IS FOR A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION TO FORM ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE AND
LEAD TO ADDITIONAL 0.10" TO 0.25"+ OF QPF FOR THOSE SOUTH OF THE SFC
LOW. THIS WAS A SOLUTION THAT THAT THE AIFS HAS BEEN HINTING AT FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AND ONE WE'VE DISCUSSED INTERNALLY AS A POTENTIAL. IT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH WHERE EXACTLY THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION SETS
UP SO SLIGHT CHANGES IN THE FORECAST ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE SFC LOW INTO W MN AND CONTINUE
TO PUSH EAST AFTER DAYBREAK. PRECIPITION WILL CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN
TO SNOW BY MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS W MN AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR
C/E MN. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL POSSIBLE. WEST WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN MN THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH LIKELY. THE
COMBINATION OF BOTH STRONG WINDS AND ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL HAS
PROMPTED FOR US TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST-CENTRAL MN UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT. FALLING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO REDUCED VISIBILITY AND SLICK TRAVEL THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS BAND OF SNOW SHOULD TRACK ROUGHLY FROM MORRIS MN TO THE TWIN
CITIES AND INTO FAR WESTERN WI. AN INCH OR TWO WILL FALL IN THE TWIN
CITIES METRO, BUT THE LATEST TRENDS ON THE HRRR HINT AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER AMOUNTS COULD EXTEND FROM W MN INTO TWIN
CITIES METRO.
COLDER WEATHER WILL BE ARRIVING FOR SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. ON THURSDAY, LIGHT SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS TO
OVER NORTHERN WI. HOWEVER, AS THIS INITIAL SFC LOW SLOWLY FILLS IN,
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF CO THURSDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE A SFC LOW THAT TRACKS FROM KANSAS CITY TO THE QUAD CITIES AND
INTO GREEN BAY. THIS TRACK PLACES US ON THE NORTHWESTERN FRINGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. CURRENT FORECAST SUPPORT SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ALONG I-90 IN S MN AND WESTERN WI THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST EPS PROBABILITIES OF 1" OF SNOW OF
30 TO 50% ALONG I-90 AND 50 TO 60% AT EAU CLAIRE WI. THOSE
PROBABILITIES TANK TO 20% FOR 3"+. THIS HIGHLIGHTS THE LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TRACK & INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TOWARD NORMAL VALUES FOR THE WEEKEND AS
WE'LL DRY OUT BEHIND THESE SYSTEMS. THE CULPRIT IS A 1050MB HIGH
NOSING IN FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES, WE'LL SEE OUR FIRST BOUT OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SINCE THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY. THIS
SHOULD KEEP US DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURN BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SEEING MORE SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND THUS
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL EPS MEMBERS THAT
HINT AT A STORM BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 28TH OF FEBRUARY. THIS IS WORTH
WATCHING AS IT COULD ADD ADDITIONAL PRECIPITION BEFORE THE END OF
THE MONTH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
A LARGE SYSTEM IS BRINGING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR KRWF AND
KMKT THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WEST WIND.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT PERIODS OF SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND BREEZY WEST
WIND. THE SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION AND WEAKENS
OVERALL. IFR/MVFR CLODUS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY ALONG WITH
NORTHWEST WIND.
KMSP...COULD SEE TWO ROUNDS OF HEAVIER SNOW AT KMSP. THE FIRST
WILL BE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND THEN EXPECT ANOTHEN THIN BAND
OF SNOW TO MOVE EAST AND COULD BRING SOME IFR CONDITIONS AS
WELL. WINDS WILL BE WEST/SOUTHWEST, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING, AND THE SNOW
SHOULD EXIT AROUND 06Z OR SHORTLY AFTER. LOOK FOR MVFR CLOUD TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC -SN EARLY. WIND NW 10-20 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS. WIND NW 10-20 KTS.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE. WIND NW 15-20 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BLUE
EARTH-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-DAKOTA-DOUGLAS-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-
KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MCLEOD-MEEKER-NICOLLET-
POPE-RAMSEY-RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-
STEVENS-SWIFT-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BROWN-LAC QUI
PARLE-MARTIN-REDWOOD-WATONWAN-YELLOW MEDICINE.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-REDWOOD-
YELLOW MEDICINE.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BLUE EARTH-
FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-STEELE-WASECA.
WI...NONE.
UPDATE...BED
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...JRB
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