907
FXUS63 KMPX 181821
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1221 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NARROW BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH 2 TO 4" POSSIBLE ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA DOWN TOWARDS TWIN CITIES METRO.
- BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE FALLING SNOW OVERLAPS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 40 MPH.
- TURNING COLDER LATE WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY - MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
REGIONAL SATELLITE AND RADAR IS MESMERIZING AS THE SURFACE LOW
SPINS OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STEADY,
FALLING SNOW HAS DEVELOPED IN SUPPORT FROM THE STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION BAND STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL
NODAK INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MN. OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A SLIGHT NORTHERN SHIFT OF THIS BAND THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS, GUSTING OVER 40 MPH AT
TIMES, AND FALLING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN REDUCED
VISIBILITIES, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS OF SOUTHWEST MN NEAR THE
MINNESOTA RIVER WHERE WINDS ARE MOST FREQUENTLY GUSTING IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH. WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER MILE OR
LESS ARE RESULTING IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND VERY DIFFICULT
TRAVEL FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. UNDER THIS BAND, WE
EXPECT TOTALS TO BE MOSTLY AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES. WE ARE WEARY OF
THE HIGHER END TOTALS GIVEN THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE WARM
AND SOME MELTING IS ALREADY OCCURRING, ESPECIALLY ON ROADWAYS.
AS OF THE 12PM OBSERVATION, WE MEASURED 0.4" OF SNOWFALL WITH
0.05" OF LIQUID. THOUGH, AGAIN IT IS WORTH MENTIONING, VERY
LITTLE ACCUMULATION OCCURRED OFF OF OUR SNOW BOARD WHICH IS
COOLER THAN THE REST OF THE GROUND.
LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY THURSDAY MORNING, ALONG WITH WINDS
WEAKENING OUT OF THE N/NW. EXPECT IT TO REMAIN CLOUDY AND DREARY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE
MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NOW THAT WE
HAVE SEEN THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION IS PANNING OUT FOR TODAY'S
SYSTEM, CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THIS SECONDARY WAVE DIGGING
A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACK NOW
SOLIDLY MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN IOWA UP TOWARDS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN, KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA
INTO WEST- CENTRAL WISCONSIN. YOU CAN SEE THIS IN THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN FOR THE EURO, AMERICAN, AND CANADIAN MODELS, AS WELL AS
DETERMINISTIC EURO AIFS, GFS, NAM, RRFS. ONLY A HANDFUL OF
SOLUTIONS CLIP PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI (EAU
CLAIRE COUNTY), WITH THE DETERMINISTIC EURO AND HRRR. WE ARE
FAVORING THIS SOUTHERN TREND, WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS (AROUND AN INCH OR LESS) FOR S/SE MN AND PORTIONS
OF WESTERN WI.
THE MAIN STORY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE DOWNWARD
TREND OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S AND TEENS (CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR MID-LATE FEBRUARY). THERE IS NO MAJOR SIGNAL FOR
PRECIPITATION AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WARM AND A ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL COME DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOWER
HEIGHTS BUILD IN ACROSS CANADA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
A LARGE SYSTEM IS BRINGING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR KRWF AND
KMKT THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WEST WIND.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT PERIODS OF SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND BREEZY WEST
WIND. THE SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION AND WEAKENS
OVERALL. IFR/MVFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY ALONG WITH
NORTHWEST WIND.
KMSP...COULD SEE TWO ROUNDS OF HEAVIER SNOW AT KMSP. THE FIRST
WILL BE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND THEN EXPECT ANOTHER THIN BAND
OF SNOW TO MOVE EAST AND COULD BRING SOME IFR CONDITIONS AS
WELL. WINDS WILL BE WEST/SOUTHWEST, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING, AND THE SNOW
SHOULD EXIT AROUND 06Z OR SHORTLY AFTER. LOOK FOR MVFR CLOUD TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC -SN EARLY. WIND NW 10-20 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS. WIND NW 10-20 KTS.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE. WIND NW 15-20 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CARVER-
CHIPPEWA-DAKOTA-DOUGLAS-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-KANDIYOHI-LAC
QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MCLEOD-MEEKER-POPE-RAMSEY-RICE-SCOTT-
SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-STEVENS-SWIFT-WASECA-WASHINGTON-
WATONWAN-WRIGHT.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BROWN-LAC QUI
PARLE-MARTIN-REDWOOD-WATONWAN-YELLOW MEDICINE.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BLUE EARTH-
BROWN-NICOLLET-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BLUE EARTH-
FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-STEELE-WASECA.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...JRB
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