455
FXUS63 KMPX 190041
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
641 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NARROW BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH 2 TO 4" POSSIBLE ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA DOWN TOWARDS TWIN CITIES METRO.
- BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE FALLING SNOW OVERLAPS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 40 MPH.
- TURNING COLDER LATE WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY - MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
REGIONAL SATELLITE AND RADAR IS MESMERIZING AS THE SURFACE LOW
SPINS OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STEADY,
FALLING SNOW HAS DEVELOPED IN SUPPORT FROM THE STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION BAND STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL
NODAK INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MN. OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A SLIGHT NORTHERN SHIFT OF THIS BAND THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS, GUSTING OVER 40 MPH AT
TIMES, AND FALLING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN REDUCED
VISIBILITIES, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS OF SOUTHWEST MN NEAR THE
MINNESOTA RIVER WHERE WINDS ARE MOST FREQUENTLY GUSTING IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH. WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER MILE OR
LESS ARE RESULTING IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND VERY DIFFICULT
TRAVEL FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. UNDER THIS BAND, WE
EXPECT TOTALS TO BE MOSTLY AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES. WE ARE WEARY OF
THE HIGHER END TOTALS GIVEN THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE WARM
AND SOME MELTING IS ALREADY OCCURRING, ESPECIALLY ON ROADWAYS.
AS OF THE 12PM OBSERVATION, WE MEASURED 0.4" OF SNOWFALL WITH
0.05" OF LIQUID. THOUGH, AGAIN IT IS WORTH MENTIONING, VERY
LITTLE ACCUMULATION OCCURRED OFF OF OUR SNOW BOARD WHICH IS
COOLER THAN THE REST OF THE GROUND.
LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY THURSDAY MORNING, ALONG WITH WINDS
WEAKENING OUT OF THE N/NW. EXPECT IT TO REMAIN CLOUDY AND DREARY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE
MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NOW THAT WE
HAVE SEEN THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION IS PANNING OUT FOR TODAY'S
SYSTEM, CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THIS SECONDARY WAVE DIGGING
A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACK NOW
SOLIDLY MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN IOWA UP TOWARDS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN, KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA
INTO WEST- CENTRAL WISCONSIN. YOU CAN SEE THIS IN THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN FOR THE EURO, AMERICAN, AND CANADIAN MODELS, AS WELL AS
DETERMINISTIC EURO AIFS, GFS, NAM, RRFS. ONLY A HANDFUL OF
SOLUTIONS CLIP PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI (EAU
CLAIRE COUNTY), WITH THE DETERMINISTIC EURO AND HRRR. WE ARE
FAVORING THIS SOUTHERN TREND, WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS (AROUND AN INCH OR LESS) FOR S/SE MN AND PORTIONS
OF WESTERN WI.
THE MAIN STORY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE DOWNWARD
TREND OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S AND TEENS (CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR MID-LATE FEBRUARY). THERE IS NO MAJOR SIGNAL FOR
PRECIPITATION AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WARM AND A ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL COME DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOWER
HEIGHTS BUILD IN ACROSS CANADA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
SLOWLY DIMINISHING SWATH OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL-EASTERN MN INTO
SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI CONTINUES TO PRODUCE IFR-OR-WORSE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD
WHILE SHRINKING IN SIZE, THUS PRECIPITATION WILL STEADILY END
THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER, LOW STRATUS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW, WITH IFR
CEILINGS LIKELY FOR SOME IF NOT MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE, WITH
GUSTS DROPPING OFF AND SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10KTS.
DIRECTIONS WILL SHIFT MORE TOWARDS NW AND N TOMORROW THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT.
KMSP...A FEW ROUNDS OF MOD-HEAVY SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THIS TAF DURATION, INCLUDING WITH RATES OF
AROUND 1 IN/HR AT TIMES. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE INTO MVFR
RANGE LATER THIS EVENING, THEN TO VFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW. SNOWFALL WILL DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE THIS
EVENING THEN EVENTUALLY END OVERNIGHT WITH NO SNOW EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE W AND NW THROUGH
TOMORROW, ALLOWING FOR 30S OPERATIONS, AND HAVE DIMINISHING
SPEEDS. THAT SAID, CEILINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW 1700FT THROUGHOUT
THIS DURATION, AND BELOW 1000FT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC -SN EARLY. WIND NW 10-20 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS. WIND NW 10-20 KTS.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE. WIND NW 15-20 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CARVER-
CHIPPEWA-DAKOTA-DOUGLAS-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-KANDIYOHI-LAC
QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MCLEOD-MEEKER-POPE-RAMSEY-RICE-SCOTT-
SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-STEVENS-SWIFT-WASECA-WASHINGTON-
WRIGHT.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BLUE EARTH-
BROWN-NICOLLET-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-ST. CROIX.
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...JPC
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