237
FXUS63 KMPX 192011
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
211 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR FAR
SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI. ACCUMULATIONS A COUPLE TENTHS OF
AN INCH AT MOST.
- QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLING INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE REBOUNDING NEXT WEEK. NEXT
CHANCE FOR ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK,
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS OUR
MESOSCALE SNOW BAND THAT PRODUCED OVER 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
YESTERDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TWIN CITIES
METRO, WITH A SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHWARDS AS THE SURFACE LOW UNDERNEATH
AN INVERTED TROUGH SPINS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE SURFACE LOW HAS
WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVED OUT OF PHASE
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM, THUS THE FORCING FOR ASCENT WHICH
RESULTED IN THE SNOW SHOWERS IS LARGELY ABSENT, AS IS THE INTENSE
WINDS AND FRONTOGENESIS THAT RESULTED. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT
ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE LOOKS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THE
CLOUDS ARE THINNER WITH FAR WEAKER OMEGA THROUGH THE LAYER,
RESULTING IN FLURRIES AT BEST IN AN OTHERWISE DRY FORECAST. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW RESULTING IN A DUSTING UP TO A COUPLE
TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE FARTHER AWAY FROM YESTERDAY'S SYSTEM, THAT
BEING A SECONDARY SYSTEM STAYING SOUTH OF THE AREA FROM A SECONDARY
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW CENTERED IN NORTHERN MISSOURI. ALL THIS TO
SAY, THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA IS EXPERIENCING LOW IMPACT WEATHER
TODAY WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN A FEW SEPARATE AREAS, THOSE
BEING CENTRAL MINNESOTA CLOSE TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR WEAKENING SURFACE
LOW AND FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/WESTERN WISCONSIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SECONDARY SYSTEM. FOR THE REST OF US, THE MAIN RESULT WILL BE
CONTINUED CLOUDINESS TONIGHT LINGERING INTO TOMORROW.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET WITH THE MAIN FEATURES
BEING SHIFTING TEMPERATURES AS SOME COOLER ARCTIC AIR FLOWS INTO THE
AREA VIA NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS, WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -10 TO -15C BELOW ZERO OR ROUGHLY MID
SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS FAHRENHEIT. A BIT OF THIS COLDER AIR
LOOKS TO MIX DOWN TO GROUND LEVEL OVER THE WEEKEND AFTER OUR SKIES
CLEAR OUT AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE IS SEEN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION, RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S
AND LOWS HOVERING NEAR 10 DEGREES FOR MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY
TUESDAY THANKS TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES
HEADING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, GIVING US WEAK TO MODERATE WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND RETURNING HIGHS TO THE 30S. WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 7 DAY PERIOD. THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PLACEMENT
ARE UNCERTAIN, SO THE EXACT DEGREE OF WARMING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR, 30S TO MAYBE LOW 40S SEEM PROBABLE. ACTIVE
WEATHER COULD ALSO ARRIVE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM/TROUGH TRACK AND THEIR RELATIVE STRENGTH, BUT FOR NOW BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE GENERALLY PRETTY FLAT AS
FAR AS A STRONGER SYSTEM GOES. OUT OF THE SUITE OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERSHIP, GENERALLY LESS THAN 5% OF MEMBERS HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE AREA WITH 60% OR GREATER MAINTAINING A
COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST. FOR NOW, LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM
LIKE A SAFE BET, WITH MORE INFO TO FOLLOW AS THE FORECAST HOPEFULLY
COMES INTO CLEAR VIEW AFTER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
PRETTY STEADY-STATE WEATHER CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS AND MVFR/IFR CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR A FEW VERY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AT TIMES, BUT FOR NOW DID NOT INCLUDE A
MENTION OF SNOW IN THE TAFS SINCE NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE THIS EVENING, WITH SOME GUSTS
OF 15 TO 20 KTS AT TIMES.
KMSP...
MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT.
A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE, BUT NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT, WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS
THROUGH FRIDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS. WIND NW 10-20 KTS.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE. WIND NW 15-20 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND NW AT 05, BECOMING S AT 05-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...JRB
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