284
FXUS63 KMPX 192354
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
554 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR FAR
SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI. ACCUMULATIONS A COUPLE TENTHS OF
AN INCH AT MOST.
- QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLING INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE REBOUNDING NEXT WEEK. NEXT
CHANCE FOR ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK,
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS OUR
MESOSCALE SNOW BAND THAT PRODUCED OVER 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
YESTERDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TWIN CITIES
METRO, WITH A SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHWARDS AS THE SURFACE LOW
UNDERNEATH AN INVERTED TROUGH SPINS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
SURFACE LOW HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING MOVED OUT OF PHASE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM, THUS THE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WHICH RESULTED IN THE SNOW SHOWERS IS
LARGELY ABSENT, AS IS THE INTENSE WINDS AND FRONTOGENESIS THAT
RESULTED. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE
SIGNATURE LOOKS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THE CLOUDS ARE THINNER
WITH FAR WEAKER OMEGA THROUGH THE LAYER, RESULTING IN FLURRIES
AT BEST IN AN OTHERWISE DRY FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A BIT
OF LIGHT SNOW RESULTING IN A DUSTING UP TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN
INCH ARE FARTHER AWAY FROM YESTERDAY'S SYSTEM, THAT BEING A
SECONDARY SYSTEM STAYING SOUTH OF THE AREA FROM A SECONDARY
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW CENTERED IN NORTHERN MISSOURI. ALL THIS
TO SAY, THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA IS EXPERIENCING LOW IMPACT
WEATHER TODAY WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN A FEW SEPARATE
AREAS, THOSE BEING CENTRAL MINNESOTA CLOSE TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR
WEAKENING SURFACE LOW AND FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/WESTERN
WISCONSIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECONDARY SYSTEM. FOR THE REST OF
US, THE MAIN RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED CLOUDINESS TONIGHT
LINGERING INTO TOMORROW.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET WITH THE MAIN FEATURES
BEING SHIFTING TEMPERATURES AS SOME COOLER ARCTIC AIR FLOWS INTO
THE AREA VIA NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS, WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -10 TO -15C BELOW ZERO OR ROUGHLY
MID SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS FAHRENHEIT. A BIT OF THIS COLDER
AIR LOOKS TO MIX DOWN TO GROUND LEVEL OVER THE WEEKEND AFTER
OUR SKIES CLEAR OUT AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE IS SEEN AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION, RESULTING IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND LOWS HOVERING NEAR 10 DEGREES FOR
MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT
OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY THANKS TO A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES HEADING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, GIVING US WEAK TO MODERATE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
RETURNING HIGHS TO THE 30S. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE 7 DAY PERIOD. THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PLACEMENT ARE UNCERTAIN, SO THE EXACT DEGREE OF WARMING IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN BUT GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR, 30S TO MAYBE LOW 40S SEEM
PROBABLE. ACTIVE WEATHER COULD ALSO ARRIVE DEPENDING ON WHERE
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/TROUGH TRACK AND THEIR RELATIVE
STRENGTH, BUT FOR NOW BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
ARE GENERALLY PRETTY FLAT AS FAR AS A STRONGER SYSTEM GOES. OUT
OF THE SUITE OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERSHIP, GENERALLY LESS THAN 5% OF
MEMBERS HAVE A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE AREA WITH 60%
OR GREATER MAINTAINING A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST. FOR NOW, LOW
END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM LIKE A SAFE BET, WITH MORE INFO TO
FOLLOW AS THE FORECAST HOPEFULLY COMES INTO CLEAR VIEW AFTER THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
LOW STRATUS TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THIS
DURATION, POTENTIALLY LIFTING INTO VFR LEVELS FOR THE TWO
SOUTHERNMOST SITES (RWF-MKT) MID-TO-LATE DAY FRIDAY. CEILINGS
MAINLY IN MVFR RANGE, ALTHOUGH SOME SPLOTCHY IFR CEILINGS MAY
OCCUR THIS EVENING. STILL A VERY SMALL NON-ZERO CHANCE OF
FLURRIES OR -SHSN AT ANY GIVEN SITE BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW
(AND UNCERTAINTY TOO HIGH) TO INCLUDE MENTION. BREEZY/GUSTY NW
WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS DURATION.
KMSP...MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z TOMORROW EVENING,
WITH CEILINGS AROUND THE 2KFT MARK, OCCASIONALLY DROPPING BELOW
BEFORE RISING BACK OVER. VFR CEILINGS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL FRIDAY
EVENING. A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME, NO
ACCUMULATION. WINDS WILL START OUT UNDER 10KTS BUT INCREASE TO
NEAR 15G25KTS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE SETTLING BACK DOWN
AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS. WIND NW 10-20 KTS.
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE. WIND NW 15-20 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND NW AT 05, BECOMING S AT 05-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...JPC
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