722
FXUS63 KMPX 201132
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
532 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW & SCATTERED FLURRIES THIS MORNING. A DUSTING OF
ACCUMULATION LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA.
- QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WARMING NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND THROUGH THE DAY WITH
FLURRIES & LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING,
CHANCES FOR UP TO HALF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ARE HIGHEST
ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW & COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUES ON THE BACK SIDE OF YESTERAY'S LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM, KEEPING TEMPERATURES CHILLY ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S EXPECTED. WARMER
TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
WISCONSIN WHERE THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE WEAKER. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-30 MPH THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH SPEEDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON & INTO THIS
EVENING.
THIS WEEKEND LOOKS QUIET AND SEASONABLY COLD AS COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. SATURDAY'S TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY BUT BELOW-NRMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY & MONDAY AS THE HIGH CENTERS OVER THE REGION.
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE TEENS ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA TO LOW TO
MID 20S FARTHER EAST, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO NEAR ZERO. A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN, BUT THE
MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW
WILL LIKELY TAKE A TRACK THAT KEEPS THE BULK OF THE FORCING
FARTHER EAST ACROSS WISCONSIN & THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND THROUGH MIDWEEK AS WARMER RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. THE
CHANCES FOR ANY NOTABLE STORM SYSTEMS OR APPRECIABLE
PRECIPITATION STILL LOOK LOW, BUT THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET REMAINS
ACTIVE ENOUGH THAT ONE OR TWO WEAK DISTURBANCES COULD IMPACT THE
REGION. SNOW WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH
ANY OF THESE DISTURBANCES, BUT MIXED PRECIPITATION OR JUST RAIN
COULD BE POSSIBLE IF THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION MATCHES UP
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. A RETURN TO ABOVE-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK,
ALTHOUGH LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS AT ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
MVFR OR LOWER STRATUS BLANKETS ALL SEVEN TERMINALS TO OPEN THE
12Z PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS HAVE BECOME BREEZY IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PIVOTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL WI. WHILE THE MUCH MORE NOTABLE HEAVY SYSTEM
SNOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS, IT'S LIKELY
THAT SCATTERED FLURRIES CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS WESTERN MN
THIS MORNING. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
WITHIN VFR CRITERIA, THOUGH WE CANNOT RULE OUT A DUSTING OF
ACCUMULATION AT RWF/AXN/MKT. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MVFR
CEILINGS (WITH POCKETS OF IFR STRATUS) WILL PREVAIL TODAY. WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW ADVANCES
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE DELAYED A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS (LATER THIS EVENING AT THE EARLIEST) BASED ON MORE
PESSIMISTIC TRENDS IN THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE.
KMSP...BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES, BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND NW 15-20KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND NW BECOMING SW 5-10KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND SW. 10-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...STRUS
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