038
FXUS63 KMPX 202305
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
505 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
- WARMING AFTER MONDAY WITH A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN/SNOW
MID- NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER EAST-
CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI. BUT, MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS PLAGUED BY
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW STRATUS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW HAS
CONTINUED ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF MN AS THE STRATUS LAYER
IS JUST WITHIN THE DGZ. BUT THIS SNOW SHOULD ONLY BE FOR LOOKS (WITH
LITTLE ACCUMULATION) AND END BY THIS EVENING. THE GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO SLOW AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT. THE
FORECAST LOOKS TO REMAIN PRETTY QUIET WITH ANY INCREASED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION NOT ARRIVING UNTIL TOWARDS MID-NEXT WEEK. HAVE BUMPED
UP CLOUD COVER TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT SATURATION SHOULD STAY PERSISTENT
ENOUGH FOR THE LOW-LEVEL STRATUS TO HANG AROUND. A FEW MORE FLURRIES
MAY BE SQUEEZED OUT FROM THE STRATUS SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY NEAR RCX.
STILL EXPECTING A COOL DOWN THIS WEEKEND AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
FUNNELS A CANADIAN AIR MASS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. LOWS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID
TEENS (COLDEST IN WESTERN MN). MEANWHILE, HIGHS TOMORROW WILL ONLY
REACH THE MID TEENS IN WEST-CENTRAL MN TO MID TO UPPER 20S IN WEST-
CENTRAL WI. THE COLDEST DAY OF THE PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE
SUNDAY AS LOW TEENS TO LOWER 20S ARE FORECAST (COLDEST IN WESTERN
MN). IF YOU DON'T LIKE THE COLD, THE GOOD NEWS IS TEMPERATURES START
TO REBOUND BY TUESDAY AS THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING THAT HAD BEEN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BEGINS TO FLATTEN.
THE NORTHERN JETSTREAM WILL STILL REMAIN STRONG AND OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK, THOUGH. A FEW SHORTWAVE PASSAGES
LOOK POSSIBLE IN THE LONG-RANGE MODELS DURING THE TUESDAY TO
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ARE SUGGESTED AS OF NOW
BUT 20-40% POPS EXIST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MIXED
PRECIPITATION TYPES POSSIBLE GIVEN THE MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
(RAIN BEING MORE LIKELY DURING THE DAY WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE
WARMEST, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN MN.) FORECAST UNCERTAINTY STARTS TO
INCREASE TOWARDS LATE NEXT WEEK AS MODELS STRUGGLE HANDLING TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES. BUT, LOOKING AT THE LONG-
RANGE ENSEMBLES, THE GENERAL TREND IS TOWARDS A MORE ZONAL UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TO END THE MONTH. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO A MORE MILD END OF FEBRUARY/EARLY MARCH WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS DISTURBANCES PASS
THROUGH.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 450 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
LOW CLOUDS AROUND 1500-3000FT CONTINUE TO OCCUPY THE REGION,
THOUGH WE HAVE SEEN CONSIDERABLE THINNING TODAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA. IT IS LIKELY THAT MOST
TERMINALS WILL JUMP BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
WHILE THE SCT/BKN STRATUS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT TOMORROW, MAKING MVFR CONDITIONS MORE COMMON BY
THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SETTLE AT OR BELOW 10 KTS
OVERNIGHT, THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS AGAIN TOMORROW WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS.
KMSP...THE CIGS ARE A LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FORECAST GIVEN THAT
WE EXPECT AT LEAST SOME LOW CLOUDS TO STICK AROUND THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT, THOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT HOW LONG ANY
GIVEN AREA WILL STAY SCT VERSUS BKN/OVC.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND NW 15-20KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND NW BECOMING SW 5-10KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND SW. 10-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...BED
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