718
FXUS63 KMPX 210739
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
139 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD & DRY THIS WEEKEND.
- CHANCES FOR SNOW TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW & COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE
TEENS ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA & LOW 20S FARTHER EAST, WITH LOW
CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHWARDS OUT OF IOWA LIMITING ANY SUNSHINE
TODAY TO THE MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY AS THE CORE OF A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS
SETTLES OVER THE REGION WITH ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE. THIS
REGIME CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES &
DRY CONDITIONS, OUTSIDE OF SOME FLURRIES AT TIMES WITH THE
PERSISTENT STRATUS.
MIDWEEK, THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AS STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH A 150+ KT JET STREAK SETTING UP
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS & NOSING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES/WEAK CLIPPERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FLOW
REGIME ALOFT, BUT GUIDANCE REMAINS SPREAD ON WHEN & WHERE ANY OF
THESE SYSTEMS MAY TRACK MIDWEEK. FOR NOW, LIKE THE GENERAL
PICTURE CONVEYED BY THE AIFS & ECMWF AI ENSEMBLE, WHICH HAS A
WEAKER CLIPPER TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA & NORTHERN
WISCONSIN TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A MORE ROBUST CLIPPER OVER THE
DAKOTAS & CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST OF
THESE COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR SO TO
PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA & WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN,
WHILE WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSER EYE ON THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM
WITH THE AIFS AT LEAST ADVERTISING THE POTENTIAL FOR PLOWABLE
SNOW OF 3"+. WE'LL LIKELY SEE THE WIDE SPREAD IN THE FORECAST
SUITE AS A WHOLE CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR
THESE SYSTEMS, BUT IT'S WORTH MENTIONING THE AI SOLUTIONS HERE
AS THEY HAVE SHOWN EXCEPTIONAL SKILL IN PINNING DOWN THE TRACK
OF THESE NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEMS/CLIPPERS EVEN AT THE 5+ DAY
RANGE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK TAKE ON AN UP & DOWN TREND, WITH
ABOVEN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY SOUTH OF THE EXPECTED TRACK
OF THE CLIPPER ON TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY (ESPECIALLY WHERE WE SEE THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION
FROM THE CLIPPER). TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK TO END THE WEEK WITH
WELL- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY FRIDAY AS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AROUND 10 F ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
CIGS CONTINUE TO SCATTER LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH A COUPLE EXCEPTIONS. MVFR/VFR CIGS WILL LINGER IN WI
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO, RECENT OBS IN THE VICINITY OF AXN
HAVE DEVELOPED IFR CIGS AND SATELLITE INDICATES A PATCH OF LOWER
CLOUDS (APPARENT IN AREAS NOT SHROUDED BY HIGH CLOUD COVER)
ACROSS WESTERN MN. INTRODUCED A TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS AT AXN
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS THE IFR BANK SEEMS TO BE EXPANDING.
BROKEN MVFR CIGS RETURN LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
KMSP...CIGS WILL CLEAR BEFORE THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF, WITH
MVFR LIKELY RETURNING AROUND MIDDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND NW 15-20KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND NW BECOMING SW 5-10KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND SW. 10-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
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