409
FXUS63 KMPX 211131
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
531 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD & DRY THIS WEEKEND.
- CHANCES FOR SNOW TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW & COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE
TEENS ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA & LOW 20S FARTHER EAST, WITH LOW
CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHWARDS OUT OF IOWA LIMITING ANY SUNSHINE
TODAY TO THE MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY AS THE CORE OF A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS
SETTLES OVER THE REGION WITH ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE. THIS
REGIME CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES &
DRY CONDITIONS, OUTSIDE OF SOME FLURRIES AT TIMES WITH THE
PERSISTENT STRATUS.
MIDWEEK, THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AS STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH A 150+ KT JET STREAK SETTING UP
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS & NOSING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES/WEAK CLIPPERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FLOW
REGIME ALOFT, BUT GUIDANCE REMAINS SPREAD ON WHEN & WHERE ANY OF
THESE SYSTEMS MAY TRACK MIDWEEK. FOR NOW, LIKE THE GENERAL
PICTURE CONVEYED BY THE AIFS & ECMWF AI ENSEMBLE, WHICH HAS A
WEAKER CLIPPER TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA & NORTHERN
WISCONSIN TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A MORE ROBUST CLIPPER OVER THE
DAKOTAS & CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST OF
THESE COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR SO TO
PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA & WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN,
WHILE WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSER EYE ON THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM
WITH THE AIFS AT LEAST ADVERTISING THE POTENTIAL FOR PLOWABLE
SNOW OF 3"+. WE'LL LIKELY SEE THE WIDE SPREAD IN THE FORECAST
SUITE AS A WHOLE CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR
THESE SYSTEMS, BUT IT'S WORTH MENTIONING THE AI SOLUTIONS HERE
AS THEY HAVE SHOWN EXCEPTIONAL SKILL IN PINNING DOWN THE TRACK
OF THESE NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEMS/CLIPPERS EVEN AT THE 5+ DAY
RANGE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK TAKE ON AN UP & DOWN TREND, WITH
ABOVEN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY SOUTH OF THE EXPECTED TRACK
OF THE CLIPPER ON TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY (ESPECIALLY WHERE WE SEE THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION
FROM THE CLIPPER). TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK TO END THE WEEK WITH
WELL- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY FRIDAY AS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AROUND 10 F ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
LOW STRATUS HAS CLEARED ALL TERMINALS WEST OF EAU AND WE SHOULD
SEE CIGS SCATTER OUT AT EAU EARLY IN THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. FOCUS
THEN SHIFTS TO STRATUS ACROSS ND AND NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. A WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
REGIME WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE RETURN OF MVFR STRATUS AT ALL
SEVEN TERMINALS LATER TODAY. LATEST RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS
GENERALLY REMAINS IN LINE WITH LAMP GUIDANCE, WHICH SUGGESTS
THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT ALL
SITES. ON THE FLIP SIDE, HRRR GUIDANCE IS A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC
AND ADVERTISES VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS PRIOR TO MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING NEAR OR AFTER SUNSET.
FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME BENEATH THE ANTICIPATED
MVFR STRATUS DUE TO COLLOCATION WITHIN THE SNOW-GROWTH ZONE AND
BROAD FORCING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE. WHILE NO MENTION IS
MADE IN THE 12Z TAFS, BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ARE FORECAST TO GUST BETWEEN
20-25KTS FROM THIS AFTERNOON ONWARD.
KMSP...PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CEILINGS
LATER TODAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE 12Z TAF.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR. WIND NW 15-20KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND NW BECOMING SW 5-10KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND SW. 10-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...STRUS
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