456
FXUS63 KMPX 211804
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1204 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD & DRY THIS WEEKEND.
- CHANCES FOR SNOW TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW & COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE
TEENS ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA & LOW 20S FARTHER EAST, WITH LOW
CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHWARDS OUT OF IOWA LIMITING ANY SUNSHINE
TODAY TO THE MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY AS THE CORE OF A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS
SETTLES OVER THE REGION WITH ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE. THIS
REGIME CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES &
DRY CONDITIONS, OUTSIDE OF SOME FLURRIES AT TIMES WITH THE
PERSISTENT STRATUS.
MIDWEEK, THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AS STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH A 150+ KT JET STREAK SETTING UP
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS & NOSING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES/WEAK CLIPPERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FLOW
REGIME ALOFT, BUT GUIDANCE REMAINS SPREAD ON WHEN & WHERE ANY OF
THESE SYSTEMS MAY TRACK MIDWEEK. FOR NOW, LIKE THE GENERAL
PICTURE CONVEYED BY THE AIFS & ECMWF AI ENSEMBLE, WHICH HAS A
WEAKER CLIPPER TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA & NORTHERN
WISCONSIN TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A MORE ROBUST CLIPPER OVER THE
DAKOTAS & CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST OF
THESE COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR SO TO
PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA & WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN,
WHILE WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSER EYE ON THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM
WITH THE AIFS AT LEAST ADVERTISING THE POTENTIAL FOR PLOWABLE
SNOW OF 3"+. WE'LL LIKELY SEE THE WIDE SPREAD IN THE FORECAST
SUITE AS A WHOLE CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR
THESE SYSTEMS, BUT IT'S WORTH MENTIONING THE AI SOLUTIONS HERE
AS THEY HAVE SHOWN EXCEPTIONAL SKILL IN PINNING DOWN THE TRACK
OF THESE NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEMS/CLIPPERS EVEN AT THE 5+ DAY
RANGE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK TAKE ON AN UP & DOWN TREND, WITH
ABOVEN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY SOUTH OF THE EXPECTED TRACK
OF THE CLIPPER ON TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY (ESPECIALLY WHERE WE SEE THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION
FROM THE CLIPPER). TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK TO END THE WEEK WITH
WELL- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY FRIDAY AS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AROUND 10 F ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGHOUT.
CLOUD HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP, PARTIALLY DUE TO THE HIGH
ALBEDO OF THE FRESH SNOWCOVER. THERE IS SOME STRATUS WHERE THE
GROUND IS CLEAR AND THE SUN IS ABLE TO HEAT IT UP AND MIX THE
BOUNDARY LAYER, BUT WHERE THERE IS FRESH SNOW, WINDS ARE LIGHT,
AND SKIES ARE STILL MOSTLY CLEAR.
IN ADDITION, THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ADVANCING
EASTWARD, WHICH LEADS TO SUBSIDENCE AND HIGH PRESSURE, SO THE
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE FIGHTING THIS SUBSIDENCE, AND THE END
RESULT IS OVERALL 500MB HEIGHT RISES AND SURFACE PRESSURE
INCREASING.
ALL THIS IS A LONG WAY OF SAYING THAT THE MVFR STRATUS MIGHT NOT
MATERIALIZE, SO HAVE BEEN PUSHING BACK THE TIMING AND LIFTING
THE CLOUD HEIGHTS WITH EACH UPDATE.
KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE LIKELY AS THE LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN
SLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES. FOR THAT REASON, DID
PUSH BACK THE TIMING OF MVFR TO 03Z, AND MAY END UP REMOVING IT
COMPLETELY IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. OTHERWISE EXPECT NORTHWEST
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD, WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR/MVFR. WIND NW 15-20KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND NW BECOMING SW 5-10KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND SW. 10-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...JRB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page