262
FXUS63 KMPX 212036
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
236 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGHS WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN BELOW AND ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH TOMORROW BEING THE COLDEST DAY.
- HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MIDWEEK PRECIP, BUT
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW EXIST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE A BIT COOLER THIS AFTERNOON WITH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA SITTING IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS TO AREAS FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST BARELY BREAKING THE 20 DEGREE MARK. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, USHERING IN MORE COLD AIR FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO THROUGH THE DAY, EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE APPARENT TS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES, LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
THIS STRATUS WILL BE IN THE DGZ, SO HAVE KEPT WIDESPREAD FLURRIES IN
THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS WEEKEND BEFORE WAA
REALLY GETS GOING OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGHS LOOK TO REACH
FREEZING OR JUST ABOVE AREA WIDE, WITH 40S AND MAYBE A RUN AT 50 FOR
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA, BRINGING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ROUGHLY
ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF I-94. QPF AMOUNTS ARE HIGHEST FOR WESTERN
WISCONSIN, WHERE SOME LOCALES COULD PICK UP A HALF INCH TO MAYBE TWO
INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHER SOUTH, QPF IS
MINOR, IF ANY, BUT DUE TO WARMER TEMPERATURES, THERE'S RAIN OR
RAIN/SNOW CHANCES. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD POPS (~30%) AND LIGHT SNOW.
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION POINTED OUT THE AIFS WAS HINTING AT THE
WEDNESDAY FEATURE BEING STRONGER, BUT THE PAST 3 RUNS HAVE NOT
ONLY COME IN WITH DRAMATICALLY LOWER QPF, BUT HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH
ENTIRELY OUT OF MINNESOTA. OTHER MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE ALSO
PULLED BACK AND SHIFTED THE HIGHEST QPF ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. BECAUSE OF THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY, DID NOT SEE A REASON
TO STRAY FROM THE NBM AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING RETURN TO END THE WORKWEEK, WITH FRIDAY LOOKING THE
WARMEST. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
NBM HIGH TEMPERATURE SPREAD FOR SATURDAY RANGES FROM TEENS TO
LOW 40S (25TH-75TH) AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGHOUT.
CLOUD HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP, PARTIALLY DUE TO THE HIGH
ALBEDO OF THE FRESH SNOWCOVER. THERE IS SOME STRATUS WHERE THE
GROUND IS CLEAR AND THE SUN IS ABLE TO HEAT IT UP AND MIX THE
BOUNDARY LAYER, BUT WHERE THERE IS FRESH SNOW, WINDS ARE LIGHT,
AND SKIES ARE STILL MOSTLY CLEAR.
IN ADDITION, THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ADVANCING
EASTWARD, WHICH LEADS TO SUBSIDENCE AND HIGH PRESSURE, SO THE
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE FIGHTING THIS SUBSIDENCE, AND THE END
RESULT IS OVERALL 500MB HEIGHT RISES AND SURFACE PRESSURE
INCREASING.
ALL THIS IS A LONG WAY OF SAYING THAT THE MVFR STRATUS MIGHT NOT
MATERIALIZE, SO HAVE BEEN PUSHING BACK THE TIMING AND LIFTING
THE CLOUD HEIGHTS WITH EACH UPDATE.
KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE LIKELY AS THE LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN
SLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES. FOR THAT REASON, DID
PUSH BACK THE TIMING OF MVFR TO 03Z, AND MAY END UP REMOVING IT
COMPLETELY IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. OTHERWISE EXPECT NORTHWEST
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD, WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR/MVFR. WIND NW 15-20KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND NW BECOMING SW 5-10KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND SW. 10-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DYE
AVIATION...JRB
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