785
FXUS63 KMPX 221806
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1206 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD & DRY THROUGH MONDAY.
- CHANCES FOR SNOW TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
COLD & DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, SO
WE'RE LOOKING AT A VERY SIMILAR DAY TO YESTERDAY - ALBEIT WITH
MORE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES COOLER. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MAY NOT RISE OUT OF THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA, BUT ANOTHER DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE TEENS IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES COULD
DROP WELL-BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN &
CENTRAL MINNESOTA IF CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT BEFORE
DAWN, BUT MORE LIKELY WE WILL SEE LOWS END UP WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF ZERO. THIS REGIME CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH
BELOW- NORMAL TEMPERATURES & DRY CONDITIONS, OUTSIDE OF SOME
FLURRIES AT TIMES WITH THE PERSISTENT STRATUS.
MIDWEEK, THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AS STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH A 150+ KT JET STREAK SETTING UP
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS & NOSING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES/WEAK CLIPPERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FLOW
REGIME ALOFT, BUT GUIDANCE REMAINS SPREAD ON WHEN & WHERE ANY OF
THESE SYSTEMS MAY TRACK MIDWEEK. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY, WHERE THE MAJORITY OF DETERMINISTIC &
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DEPICTS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA & WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY. THIS SHOULD BRING
A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA & WESTERN
WISCONSIN WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS. WEDNESDAY'S SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE MORE POTENT
AS THE JETSTREAK OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS REACHES
ITS MAX INTENSITY, ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE REMAINS WIDELY SPREAD ON
WHERE & WHEN THE SHORTWAVE FROM THIS UPPER LEVEL FORCING MAY
TRACK. WE'VE SEEN A NOTABLE SOUTHWARD SHIFT WITH THE USUALLY
STEADY AIFS GUIDANCE, WHICH CURRENTLY PLACES THE MOST LIKELY
SNOWFALL COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA &
IOWA. STILL A SYSTEM TO KEEP AN EYE ON GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
PLOWABLE SNOW OF 3"+ WHEREVER THE BAND OF SNOW SETS UP, BUT
THERE'S JUST TOO MUCH SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME TO
HAVE A GOOD IDEA ON JUST WHERE THAT MAY FALL.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK TAKE ON AN UP & DOWN TREND, WITH
ABOVEN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY SOUTH OF THE EXPECTED TRACK
OF THE CLIPPER ON TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY (ESPECIALLY WHERE WE SEE THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION
FROM THE CLIPPER). TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK TO END THE WEEK WITH
WELL- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY FRIDAY AS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE
NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A THIN STRATUS DECK REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WITH CEILINGS NEAR 2000FT. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL BREAKS AT
TIMES, BUT OVERALL GUIDANCE IS HANGING ONTO IT LONGER, SO DID
PUSH BACK THE TIMING OF CLEARING SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS
WILL BE NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT GRADUALLY TAKE ON A
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DIRECTION ON MONDAY.
KMSP...
SAME CONCERNS DISCUSSED IN THE GENERAL AVIATION DISCUSSION. MVFR
CLOUDS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF, FOLLOWED BY VFR
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO PUSH BACK THE TIMING
OF THE VFR CONDITIONS TO 06Z TONIGHT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND SW 10G20 KTS BCMG WNW 20G30KTS.
WED...VFR. WITH CHC MVFR/-SN LATE. WIND NW 10-20KTS.
THU...MVFR/-SN EARLY, THEN VFR. WIND E 10 KTS BCMG NW 05-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...JRB
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