838
FXUS63 KMPX 221927
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
127 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER AHEAD WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
THROUGH TUESDAY, FALLING WEDNESDAY, WARMING THROUGH FRIDAY,
AND FALLING AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.
- OVERALL DRY WEEK AHEAD, OUTSIDE OF MIDWEEK CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
REST OF TODAY INTO TOMORROW... NORTHERLY FLOW PEAKS TODAY WITH
TODAY AND TONIGHT BEING THE COLDEST PART OF THE WEEK AHEAD.
TOMORROW THIS FLOW WILL START TO SHIFT ALLOWING SOME WARMING
TOMORROW. NOT MUCH WARMING, BUT SNOW FREE AREAS IN THE SOUTH
COULD MAKE A RUN AT 30 DEGREES. MUCH OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
TODAY CONTINUES TO BE IN THE DGZ SUCH THAT ANY LOW CLOUDS COULD
AND HAVE LED TO PERIOD OF FLURRIES. WITH THERE BEING LITTLE
DEPTH TO THIS MOISTURE PROFILE AND THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
FORCING, NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. TOMORROW TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO WARM ENOUGH SUCH THAT ANY LOW LEVEL SATURATION WILL LIKELY
BE OUT OF THE DGZ AND FLURRIES ARE LESS LIKELY.
TUESDAY... A CLIPPER WILL MOVE OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
MEANS KEEP THE LOW TO OUR NORTH WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW MORE
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS HAS BEEN
A COMMON CLIPPER TRACK, ESPECIALLY THIS YEAR, AND LIKE THE
OTHER TIMES IT HAS OCCURRED SNOW IS EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-94. QPF AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR AS THIS MOVES
THOUGH QUICKLY AND THE BEST FORCING STAYS TO THE NORTH. SO UNDER
A HALF INCH EXPECTED WITH UP TO AROUND AN INCH IN AND AROUND
RUSK COUNTY, WI AS THEY ARE CLOSER TO THE LOW TRACK. WITH THIS
LOW STAYING TO OUR NORTH WE LOOK TO GET A BRIEF PUSH OF WAA ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 30S WITH SOME
40S POSSIBLE IN SNOW FREE AREAS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
MINNESOTA.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... THE BRIEF PUSH OF WAA ENDS QUICKLY AS
TUESDAY'S CLIPPER MOVES OUT AND BRINGS BACK NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND IT. THIS WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK ON
WEDNESDAY. THE ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES CONTINUES
THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURE WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL WITH WESTERLY
FLOW. THE TEMPERATURES SHIFT IS THE MORE CONFIDENT PART OF THIS
FORECAST AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS US CONSISTENTLY ON THE COLD
NORTH SIDE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WHAT IS LESS CERTAIN IS HOW FAR
SOUTH THIS TRACKS. THIS CONTINUES TO APPEAR THE STRONGER OF THE
TWO SYSTEMS, IT IS JUST LESS CERTAIN IF THE QPF WILL BE OVER US
OR STAY MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH. REGARDLESS OF THE ENSEMBLE TRACKS
THE BEST CHANCES ARE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND PRECIPITATION
TYPE IS CERTAINLY SNOW. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAVE BROUGHT UP THE
AIFS, WHICH CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH
ONLY SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA SEEING MUCH OF ANYTHING DUE TO THE LOW
TRACK. SOME MEMBERS OF THE BROADER ENS AND GEFS DUE KEEP THIS
TRACK FARTHER NORTH. ONE OF THE MORE HIGH END FORECASTS IS THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS WHICH HAS THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER AS THE
CENTRAL AXIS OF PRECIPITATION. SO THIS IS ALL A LONG WAY TO SAY
THERE REMAINS A LOT OF SPREAD BETWEEN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA GETTING
WINTER STORM LEVEL SNOW LEVEL SNOW TO A LIGHT LESS THAN AN INCH
EVENT.
REST OF THE WEEK... TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PEAK ON FRIDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD 40S AND MAYBE A FEW 50S OVER SNOW FREE AREAS AS THE
WARMER WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. THIS ALL COMES TO AN END FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS NORTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER IS TYPICAL OF THE LATE WINTER AS WE
START TO MAKE THE TRANSITION INTO SPRING. SO EXPECT MORE
ALTERNATING PERIODS OF COLD AND WARM AS WE HEAD INTO MARCH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A THIN STRATUS DECK REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WITH CEILINGS NEAR 2000FT. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL BREAKS AT
TIMES, BUT OVERALL GUIDANCE IS HANGING ONTO IT LONGER, SO DID
PUSH BACK THE TIMING OF CLEARING SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS
WILL BE NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT GRADUALLY TAKE ON A
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DIRECTION ON MONDAY.
KMSP...
SAME CONCERNS DISCUSSED IN THE GENERAL AVIATION DISCUSSION. MVFR
CLOUDS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF, FOLLOWED BY VFR
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO PUSH BACK THE TIMING
OF THE VFR CONDITIONS TO 06Z TONIGHT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND SW 10G20 KTS BCMG WNW 20G30KTS.
WED...VFR. WITH CHC MVFR/-SN LATE. WIND NW 10-20KTS.
THU...MVFR/-SN EARLY, THEN VFR. WIND E 10 KTS BCMG NW 05-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...JRB
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