247
FXUS63 KMPX 231738
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1138 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UP AND DOWN TEMPERATURE TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
- PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY, WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
OUR WORK WEEK FORECAST BEGINS ON A MOSTLY CLEAR, COLD, AND QUIET
NOTE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND MOST OF WESTERN WI. 3AM
TEMPERATURES RANGE BETWEEN -6 AT AXN TO 10 AT EAU. LINGERING LOW
STRATUS, TIED TO A NE 925/850MB FETCH OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR, BLANKETS
THE SKIES OVER RUSK, CHIPPEWA, & EAU CLAIRE COUNTIES IN WI AND IS
SUPPORTING SLOW COOLING. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN HOW SOON THE
STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT OF THOSE WESTERN WI COUNTIES, THOUGH THE
EASTWARD ADVANCE OF RIDGING SHOULD TURN THE MID-LEVEL FETCH MORE
NORTHERLY AND FLUSH THE STRATUS EAST LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE,
TODAY APPEARS PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND QUIET AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN 15-20 DEGREES OR
SO.
A MORE ACTIVE PICTURE SETS UP THIS WEEK AS A ~160KT JET STREAK
TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE INITIAL SYSTEM
TO WATCH WILL BE A CLIPPER THAT IS FORECAST TO TAKE SHAPE ON THE
NOSE OF THE JET TONIGHT OVER SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE CLIPPER, WHICH IS PROGGED TO DRIFT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MN INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY.
THIS TRACK PLACES THE MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE WARM SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS REFLECTED BY THE EXPANSION OF A THERMAL
RIDGE, CHARACTERIZED BY +3-7C 925MB T'S, LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. AS A RESULT, TUESDAY SHOULD FEEL QUITE A BIT WARMER, WITH
LATEST FORECAST HIGHS SET TO RANGE BETWEEN 35-40 DEGREES FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. MID 40S APPEAR POSSIBLE ALONG I-90. THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST NORTH OF I-94 IN MN, WHERE HIGHS ARE SET
TO RUN CLOSER TO THE FREEZING MARK. GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE
CLIPPER, THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW IN WFO
DLH'S FORECAST AREA. WITH THAT BEING SAID, ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 IN THE MPX CWA.
THERMAL PROFILES WITHIN THE WAA REGIME SUPPORT LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION NEAR I-94 IN BOTH MN/WI AS THE CLIPPER SLIDES THROUGH.
FATHER NORTH, P-TYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW GIVEN A COOLER PROFILE &
PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW. IT'S THESE LOCATIONS (NORTHERN MILLE
LACS, KANABEC, POLK, BARRON, RUSK) THAT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
A HALF INCH TO INCH OF FRESH SNOW ACCUMULATION.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION TRAILING THE CLIPPER WILL USHER IN -5 TO -10C
850MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WHICH
WILL YIELD A COLDER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SECOND HALF OF WEDNESDAY, WHEN THE NEXT
ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER (IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW) WILL BE
POSSIBLE. BY WEDNESDAY, THE ACTIVE STORM TRACK WILL HAVE SHIFTED
SOUTH, WHICH PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE NORTHERN/COLD SIDE OF
THE NEXT WAVE. DRIVING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS A SHORTWAVE THAT IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN A WNW TO SSE ORIENTED PRECIPITATION BAND ACROSS
EASTERN SD/SW MN INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN IOWA. UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DEGREE OF WARM ADVECTION AND PLACEMENT OF A REMNANT BAROCLINIC ZONE
FOLLOWING TUESDAY'S CLIPPER HAVE RESULTED IN A LARGE SPREAD IN THE
POSITION AND INTENSITY OF THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, THERE
IS GROWING CONSENSUS ACROSS THE MODEL SUITE (INCLUDING MACHINE
LEARNING OUTPUT) THAT THE HEAVIEST QPF WILL SETUP TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT, LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE
COME DOWN A BIT AND POPS REMAIN IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE WEDNESDAY
EVENING. PER THE BLENDED SOLUTION, LOCATIONS WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE ALONG I-90. SHOULD
THE LATEST SOUTHERLY TRENDS CONTINUE, POPS & QPF AMOUNTS WILL
UNDERGO FURTHER DECREASES.
THE UP AND DOWN TEMPERATURE TREND WILL TAKE A TURN IN THE WARMER
DIRECTION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AS AN EXPANSIVE THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. 850MB ANOMALIES OF 10-12C
ARE FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE 40-50 DEGREE RANGE ON FRIDAY. MOST ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS KEEP QPF WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, SO
WE'LL RUN WITH A DRY FORECAST. COLDER AIR RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND (HIGHS IN THE 20S) FOLLOWING A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. LONG TERM GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SPRAWLED OUT BAROCLINIC
ZONE BENEATH UPPER ZONAL FLOW NEXT WEEKEND. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED
POP MENTIONS NEXT WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS
ADVANCE WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW REGIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SOUTHEAST WINDS.
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS WILL BRING SOUTHWEST
WINDS, AND AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, A CHANCE FOR
SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. FOR THAT REASON, WE
DID INCLUDE A PROB30 -SN AT KAXN, KSTC, KMSP, KRNH, AND KEAU.
THERE IS A CHANCE SOME PL OR ZR MAY MIX IN WITH THE SNOW, SO BE
ON THE LOOKOUT FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME TURBULENCE OR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY MORNING.
KMSP...
MAIN CONCERNS ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR MIX PRECIPITATION TUESDAY
MORNING. DO HAVE A PROB30 -SN, BUT COULD HAVE SOME SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN MIX IN AS WELL.
NEXT IS THE CHANCE FOR SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OR TURBULENCE
TUESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW, DID NOT INCLUDE A MENTION OF THIS IN
THE TAFS.
LAST IS THE CHANGING WIND DIRECTION, WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY,
BECOMING SOUTHWEST, AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR, WITH DECREASING CHANCE OF MVFR/-SN LATE. WIND NW
5-15KTS.
THU...MVFR WITH SMALL CHANCE OF -SN EARLY, THEN VFR. WIND SE 5
KTS BCMG SW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND SW BCMG NW AT 10G20 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STRUS
AVIATION...JRB
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