367
FXUS63 KMPX 130520
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1220 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH WIND WARNING: HOWLING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
GUST UPWARDS OF 60-65 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
MN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE!
- A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE AN INCH OR
LESS OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. PORTIONS OF
RUSK COUNTY MAY OBSERVE 3-5".
- MAJOR WINTER STORM THIS WEEKEND: HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
RAIN AND SNOW THIS EVENING...OUR ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES. BROAD UPPER- LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES OVER EXTREME
NORTHERN MN TODAY AND ON ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY, HAS DEVELOPED A
1000MB SFC LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE
DAKOTAS. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO ~985MB BY THE TIME
IT REACHES MN/WI TONIGHT. THEREFORE, OUR MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT
18-24 HOURS WILL FIRST BE P-TYPES FOLLOWED BY VERY STRONG
SYNOPTICALLY FORCED WIND GUSTS. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW MOVES IN
ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. AS WE BEGIN TO LOSE
SURFACE HEATING THIS EVENING, AREAS ACROSS EAST- CENTRAL MN INTO
WESTERN WI CAN EXPECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO PHASE INTO ALL SNOW
OVERNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH EXCEPT FOR
RUSK COUNTY WHERE APPROXIMATELY 3 TO 5" OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
FALL BY TOMORROW MORNING, HENCE THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IN EFFECT THERE.
HIGH WIND WARNING...AS THE BULK OF PRECIP BEGINS TO WRAP UP,
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY IN TOW. CURRENTLY, WESTERN
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON HAS GUSTS REACHING THE UPPER 20S TO
LOW 30MPH RANGE BUT THIS WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
SPREAD FARTHER EASTWARD TONIGHT. IT IS EXPECTED THAT WIDESPREAD
SUSTAINED WINDS RANGING FROM 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
60 TO 65 MPH WILL OCCUR. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD EXIST ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT. REMAINING AREAS ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI ARE
UNDER A WIND ADVISORY. REGARDLESS, DAMAGING WINDS CAN BLOW TREES
AND POWER LINES DOWN CAUSING POTENTIAL OUTAGES AND MAKE TRAVEL
FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES DIFFICULT. AN ADDITIONAL NOTE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR WRAP AROUND PRECIP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW
COMBINED WITH THE HIGH WINDS. BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW, THERE IS
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FALLING BLOWING SNOW THAT COULD REDUCE
VISIBILITY AND SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN MN. THEREFORE, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS WAS ISSUED
FOR TONIGHT UNTIL 7 AM TOMORROW MORNING.
POTENTIAL INCREASING IN A MAJOR WINTER STORM THIS WEEKEND
WINDS WILL RELAX FRIDAY EVENING AS THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM DEPARTS
TO THE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD HAVE A QUIET PERIOD OF
WEATHER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE
REGION. BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY, FOCUS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO AN
INCOMING MAJOR WINTER STORM SYSTEM THAT AIMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS SATURDAY EVENING -
EARLY MONDAY.
FEATURES DRIVING THE WINTER STORM...THE EARLY BEGINNINGS OF THE
ANTICIPATED WINTER STORM CAN BE SEEN VIA WATER VAPOR SATELLITE OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA, WHERE A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY
CIRCULATING. TO THE SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CAPTURES A RIBBON OF RICH PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
DEEPEN AS IS SLIDES SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A ~160KT UPPER JET OVER
WESTERN CONUS AND WILL SPAWN A LEE SURFACE LOW ON THE ORDER OF LOWER
990S MB IN THE VICINITY OF WESTERN NE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY
SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL HAVE EVOLVED INTO A WELL DEFINED
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TAKING ON A
CLOSED NEGATIVE TILT APPEARANCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST FROM NE THROUGH IA INTO
IL, BEFORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING INTO A STRONG 970S MB SURFACE LOW
AS IT CUTS NORTHEAST AND OCCLUDES OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN. AS THE
EXPECTED EVOLUTION UNFOLDS, A FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
STREAM NORTH AND PAIR WITH THE PACIFIC COMPONENT TO SET THE
STAGE FOR A RATHER REMARKABLE QPF FOOTPRINT ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGEST 1-1.5" OF QPF ACROSS SOUTHERN MN
AND WESTERN WI! GIVEN OUR FORECAST AREAS POSITION TO THE NORTH
OF THE SURFACE LOW, WOULD ANTICIPATE THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION
FALLING IN THE SNOW BIN, WITH ONLY A SHORT PERIOD WHERE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY OCCUR AT PRECIPITATION ONSET NEAR I-90
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND RATES...GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN INITIAL BAND OF
SNOW DEVELOPING ALONG A REMNANT BAROCLINIC ZONE SET TO SPAN FROM
SOUTHEASTERN MT TO NORTHERN IA SATURDAY MORNING. COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW OUT OF THIS BAND ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN, THOUGH THE LACK
OF SYNOPTIC FORCING AND DRY AIR CONCERNS SHOULD KEEP THIS A LOWER
IMPACT TIMEFRAME. FOLLOWING A QUIET PERIOD DURING THE MORNING/START
OF THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY, MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL AID
IN TOP DOWN SATURATION WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE ARRIVAL OF OUR LONGER
DURATION SNOW CHANCES. SNOWFALL RATES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
AS A LARGE WARM ADVECTIVE SNOW SHIELD EXPANDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES ARE FORECAST WITHIN A BAND OF
HEAVY DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION THAT WILL SETUP EARLY SUNDAY, AS THE
SURFACE LOW SLIDES TO THE SOUTH OF THE IA/MN BORDER. HEAVY SNOWFALL
RATES THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO DECREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS TO THE EAST. GIVEN THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE DEFORMATION
BAND OF SNOWFALL, WE ANTICIPATE THAT PEAK SNOWFALL RATES WILL
RUN BETWEEN 1-2"+/HR EARLY SUNDAY.
WINTER STORM WATCH AND EXPECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...THE EXTREMELY
IMPRESSIVE QPF FOOTPRINT, LONGER DURATION NATURE OF THE SNOWFALL,
AND HEAVIER RATES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO INCREDIBLE SNOWFALL OUTPUT
ACROSS THE MODEL SUITE. WE CONTINUE TO TRY TO FINE TUNE THE DETAILS
IN SNOWFALL EXPECTATIONS AND LEAN ON PHYSICAL AND MACHINE LEARNING
ENSEMBLE MEANS RATHER THAN SUBSCRIBING TO ANY ONE DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTION. OUR FORECAST SLR'S GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 10:1-15:1.
IF YOU TAKE THE QPF REFERENCED ABOVE AND MULTIPLY BY THESE
SLR'S YOU GET QUITE THE SNOWFALL RANGE! A PREVIOUS LOCAL STUDY
CONDUCTED AT WFO MPX FOUND THAT SLR'S ARE OFTEN CAPPED AROUND
~10:1 OR SO WHEN HEAVY 6-HR QPF IS IN PLAY. IN ADDITION, WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY, LIKELY FRACTURING DENDRITES IN SOME
FASHION (THOUGH SUNDAY'S COLD ADVECTION REGIME SHOULD SUPPORT
RATIOS CLIMBING CLOSER TO THE 15-16:1 RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON).
EVEN WHEN YOU FACTOR IN SOME OF THE NEGATING FACTORS FOR THE
HIGHEST SLR SCENARIO, WE'RE STILL LOOKING AT QUITE THE SWATH OF
HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR FORECAST LOCALE. WE'VE COLLABORATED
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH THAT GOES
INTO EFFECT SATURDAY EVENING AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. NBM'S SNOW POTENTIAL OUTPUT ILLUSTRATES AT LEAST A 70%
CHANCE OF 6" OF SNOW FOR ALL COMMUNITIES ACROSS THE WATCH BOX.
COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WISCONSIN CURRENTLY
HAVE ~60% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 12" OF SNOW. A LOCALIZED BAND OF
HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 18" OR SO!) WILL
LIKELY SETUP FROM SE MN INTO WI, AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
PIVOT. IT'S GOING TO TAKE A FEW MORE FORECAST CYCLES TO DIAL IN
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND POSITION OF THE HEAVIEST BAND,
BUT AGAIN CURRENT TRENDS WOULD POINT TOWARDS SE MN INTO WI.
AS WITH ANY WINTER STORM SYSTEM, THE LARGE SCALE PIECES CAN
SEEM CLEAR A FEW DAYS OUT, BUT THE EVOLUTION OF LARGE SCALE
FEATURES CAN RESULT IN SHIFTS. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SHIFTS,
BUT DO HAVE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK/PLACEMENT OF THE
OVERALL SNOW SWATH GIVEN SUPPORT FROM THE AIFS/MACHINE LEARNING
SOLUTIONS.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL GUST UPWARDS OF 35-45 MPH SUNDAY. THE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW TO CREATE PERIODS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN ON HOW "MOBILE"
FRESH SNOW WILL BE GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED WETTER DENDRITE CHARACTER,
THOUGH WITH THE INCREASING MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND FIELDS FEEL
COMFORTABLE AT LEAST MESSAGING PERIODS OF WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS.
GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE STORM, WOULD FAVOR SOUTHERN
MN/I-90 AND I-35 SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES AS THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATIONS TO OBSERVE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. AS SUCH, TRAVEL
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME DANGEROUS AND TRAVELERS SHOULD
CONSIDER ALTERNATE PLANS.
MONDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...THE MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL EXIT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE START OF MONDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO MONDAY, SO IT'S LIKELY THAT BLOWING SNOW WILL CONCERNS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS RURAL AREAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 20S IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AND REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LARGE SCALE RIDGE EXPANDS EAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH RESULTS IN THE NBM WARMING BACK INTO THE 30S ON
WEDNESDAY AND THE 40S ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE WIND GUSTS FROM 45-55KTS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS OF THE TAF,
DIMINISHING GRADUALLY AFTER 12Z WITH GUSTS ABSENT AFTER 00Z. DRY
AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM OVERHEAD IS RESULTING IN
LINGERING -SN AT EAU BUT A POCKET OF VFR FEW/SCT MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS MSP/MKT/STC TO START WITH. WE EXPECT TO SEE MVFR
CIGS ROLL IN AFTER THIS POCKET OF CLEARING WITH SATELLITE
SHOWING AN EXPANSIVE FIELD OF STRATUS ADVANCING TOWARDS THE AREA
FROM THE WEST WITH THE STRONGER WINDS. CIGS LIFT AS WINDS WEAKEN
AND THE SYSTEM OVERHEAD MOVES OFF AFTER 00Z.
KMSP...A PERIOD OF LLWS IS EXPECTED AS SOON AS WINDS INCREASE,
WITH THE SYSTEM DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND
WINDS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE WITHIN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO.
BY 12Z, THE LLWS WILL BE DECREASING AS WINDS SLOWLY BEGIN TO
WEAKEN. ONCE THE POCKET OF CLEARING PRESENT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD FILLS IN, MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL 18-20Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...IFR/SN. WIND NE 15-20G25-40KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW TO S 5KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BLUE EARTH-
BROWN-CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-KANDIYOHI-LAC
QUI PARLE-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-NICOLLET-POPE-REDWOOD-
RENVILLE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-
WATONWAN-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-KANDIYOHI-MCLEOD-MEEKER-POPE-RENVILLE-
STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WRIGHT.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ANOKA-
BENTON-CARVER-DAKOTA-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-LE SUEUR-MORRISON-
RAMSEY-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-STEELE-WASHINGTON-WRIGHT.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CHISAGO-ISANTI-
KANABEC-MILLE LACS.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR ANOKA-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-
CHISAGO-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-
KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-
NICOLLET-POPE-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-
SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-STEVENS-SWIFT-WASECA-
WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-
DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-ST. CROIX.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-
POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR RUSK.
DISCUSSION...DUNLEAVY/STRUS
AVIATION...TDH
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