218
FXUS63 KMPX 130758
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
258 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH WIND WARNING CONTINUES THIS MORNING WITH WINDS GUSTING AS
HIGH AS 55-65MPH THIS MORNING. WINDS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE WARNING EXPIRING AT 10AM.
- LINGERING LIGHT SNOW COMBINED WITH WINDS COULD REDUCE
VISIBILITY THIS MORNING WITH LIMITED ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
- POWERFUL WINTER STORM MOVES IN THIS WEEKEND WITH SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CREATING DANGEROUS TO IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING
12-18'' POSSIBLE ACROSS A SIGNIFICANT SWATH OF MINNESOTA
THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN. WINTER STORM WATCH EXPANDED TO THE
ENTIRE MPX CWA WITH WINTER STORM WARNINGS ALMOST CERTAIN AND
BLIZZARD WARNINGS POSSIBLE (FAVORING SOUTHERN MN).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
TODAY...
06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE 990MB LOW DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL
MINNESOTA WHICH HAS RESULTED IN THE SIGNIFICANT WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING IN ADDITION TO SOME LINGERING
PRECIPITATION. WINDS HAVE FREQUENTLY GUSTED TO 55-65MPH ALL THE WAY
FROM WESTERN MINNESOTA THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING AS WINDS SLOWLY BEGIN TO
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER RAPIDLY
PROGRESSES TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FOR ALL BUT
WESTERN WI, WITH WINDS DWINDLING TO LESS THAN 10MPH WITH NO MORE
GUSTING LATER THIS EVENING. THE HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 7AM FOR WESTERN MINNESOTA AND 10AM FOR THE REST OF THE AREA,
WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 45MPH ENDING ROUGHLY BY THIS TIME WINDOW.
TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING AS THE LAST OF THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FALLS, HOWEVER THE GUSTY WINDS ON TOP OF LINGERING
WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP ICY CONDITIONS TO A MINIMUM
ESPECIALLY ON ANY TREATED SURFACES THIS MORNING. THE REST OF THE DAY
AND TONIGHT WILL SEE BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE RETURN BEFORE OUR LOOMING
POTENT WINTER STORM ENTERS THE REGION.
THIS WEEKEND...
THE EARLY ONSET OF OUR POTENT WINTER STORM WILL BE
DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NW LATER THIS EVENING, WITH A DEFINED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BECOMING ORGANIZED OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
SATURDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS.
THE UPPER LEVEL JET PEAKS AT AROUND 150-160KTS AND STRETCHES FROM
NORTHERN IDAHO/MONTANA ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE EASTERN CANADIAN ISLANDS, PAVING THE WAY FOR THE LOW TO TRACK
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE JET RIDING THE POTENT FORCING FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REGION OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE JET.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN IN WESTERN MINNESOTA AS EARLY AS SUNRISE ON
SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND STRETCHES A BROAD
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE AREA, AND AS THE SURFACE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AND TAKE ON A NEGATIVE
TILT. SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF THE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL
TAKE PLACE FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
ALREADY IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES EXPECTED BY SATURDAY EVENING ONLY
CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE PEAK INTENSITY
FOR THE LOCAL AREA LIKELY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TO NOON ON SUNDAY.
SNOWFALL RATES COULD RANGE FROM 2-3''/HR DURING THE PEAK INTENSITY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH DANGEROUS TO IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL EXPECTED WITH
NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES DUE TO THE SHEER INTENSITY OF
SNOWFALL. AFTER MIDDAY SUNDAY, THE EXTREMELY AMPLIFIED LEADING EDGE
OF THE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EASTWARDS TOWARDS CENTRAL WI TO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN, WITH ANTICYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY FOLLOWING ON THE HEELS OF THE MOST INTENSE
PRECIPITATION TO THE POINT WHERE SNOWFALL WILL ABRUPTLY END MONDAY
MORNING WITH LINGERING BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE DUE TO INCREASING
WINDS.
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE BOTH THE AREAL FOOTPRINT OF
SNOWFALL AND ALSO AMOUNTS AS QPF CONTINUES TO CLIMB AS GUIDANCE
TRIES TO RESOLVE SEPARATE MOISTURE SOURCES FROM THE PAC NW AND GULF,
WITH OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 1.25-1.5'' FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
THERE WILL BE A GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION AND THEREFORE SNOWFALL
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA INCREASING FOR SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA, WITH THE OVERALL HIGHEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED FROM
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND INTO THE UP. SNOW
RATIOS ARE GOING TO BE A BIT TRICKY WITH THIS EVENT, AS WE KNOW
LOCALLY THAT SYSTEMS CONTAINING THIS MUCH MOISTURE OFTEN STRUGGLE TO
PRODUCE SNOW RATIOS EXCEEDING 10 TO 1, BUT EVEN WITH THIS FACTORED
IN THERE WILL BE A LARGE AREA FROM SOUTHERN MN THROUGH WESTERN WI OF
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 12-18'' WITH 20''+ AMOUNTS POSSIBLE FOR MAINLY
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS THE LATER PART OF SUNDAY WHICH COULD SLIGHTLY DIMINISH SNOW
AMOUNTS, HOWEVER THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA WHERE THE OVERALL STRONGEST GUSTS OF AROUND 30-35MPH ARE
EXPECTED. NO MATTER WHICH SUITE OF GUIDANCE YOU TRY TO LOOK AT THE
ENSEMBLE PERCENTILES AND PROBABILITIES ARE ABSURD WITH CHANCES OF 6+
INCHES (10:1 SNOW RATIO) AT 90-100% ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND 12+
OF 70-80% OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WI.
GIVEN THE OVERALL FORECAST TREND OF INCREASING QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS
AND THE OVERALL POWERFUL DYNAMICS OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM, WE HAVE
EXPANDED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO THE REST OF THE MPX CWA WITH THE
ONLY REAL HEADLINE QUESTION BEING IF WE WILL END UP NEEDING BLIZZARD
WARNINGS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME SUNDAY WITH WINTER STORM WARNINGS ALL
BUT A CERTAINTY AT THIS POINT. THE BOTTOM LINE NO MATTER WHAT
HEADLINE ENDS UP BEING ISSUED IS THAT TRAVEL WILL BE NEXT TO
IMPOSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS SNOW CONTINUES TO PILE UP, WITH OUR
RECOMMENDATION BEING TO AVOID TRAVEL WITHIN THE REGION IF AT ALL
POSSIBLE DURING THIS WINDOW. RECOVERY EFFORTS MAY BE SLOW DUE TO THE
AMOUNT OF SNOW, WHICH COULD BLEED INTO MONDAY MORNING AND BEYOND AS
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REACH ABOVE FREEZING AGAIN UNTIL WEDNESDAY AT
THE EARLIEST. PLEASE CONSIDER ALTERING TRAVEL PLANS AND STAYING OFF
THE ROADS ON SUNDAY IF AT ALL POSSIBLE AND RIDING OUT THE STORM.
NEXT WEEK...
QUIET CONDITIONS RETURN BRIEFLY FOR THE REST OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH ANOTHER QUICK HIT OF AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN BECOMING MORE SPRING
LIKE BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH A LACK OF FURTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
SYSTEMS FOR NOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE WIND GUSTS FROM 45-55KTS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS OF THE TAF,
DIMINISHING GRADUALLY AFTER 12Z WITH GUSTS ABSENT AFTER 00Z. DRY
AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM OVERHEAD IS RESULTING IN
LINGERING -SN AT EAU BUT A POCKET OF VFR FEW/SCT MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS MSP/MKT/STC TO START WITH. WE EXPECT TO SEE MVFR
CIGS ROLL IN AFTER THIS POCKET OF CLEARING WITH SATELLITE
SHOWING AN EXPANSIVE FIELD OF STRATUS ADVANCING TOWARDS THE AREA
FROM THE WEST WITH THE STRONGER WINDS. CIGS LIFT AS WINDS WEAKEN
AND THE SYSTEM OVERHEAD MOVES OFF AFTER 00Z.
KMSP...A PERIOD OF LLWS IS EXPECTED AS SOON AS WINDS INCREASE,
WITH THE SYSTEM DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND
WINDS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE WITHIN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO.
BY 12Z, THE LLWS WILL BE DECREASING AS WINDS SLOWLY BEGIN TO
WEAKEN. ONCE THE POCKET OF CLEARING PRESENT AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD FILLS IN, MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL 18-20Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...IFR/SN. WIND NE 15-20G25-40KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW TO S 5KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BLUE EARTH-
BROWN-CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-KANDIYOHI-LAC
QUI PARLE-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-NICOLLET-POPE-REDWOOD-
RENVILLE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-
WATONWAN-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR BENTON-DOUGLAS-KANABEC-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-
TODD.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ANOKA-
BENTON-CARVER-DAKOTA-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-LE SUEUR-MORRISON-
RAMSEY-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-STEELE-WASHINGTON-WRIGHT.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CHISAGO-ISANTI-
KANABEC-MILLE LACS.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR ANOKA-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-
CHISAGO-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-
KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-
NICOLLET-POPE-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-
SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-STEVENS-SWIFT-WASECA-
WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-
DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-ST. CROIX.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-
POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR RUSK.
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...TDH
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