828
FXUS63 KMPX 140515
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1215 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MAJOR WINTER STORM THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. DANGEROUS TO
IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AN AREAWIDE WINTER
STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED.
- SNOW AMOUNTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD SWATH OF 8"+ OF
SNOW ACROSS THE WINTER STORM WARNING LOCALE. IT'S LIKELY THAT
MOST LOCATIONS OBSERVE SNOWFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 10-16", WITH A
NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW AMOUNTS APPROACHING 20". (SE MN
INTO WESTERN WI).
- BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN SUNDAY AS
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. PEAK GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH EXPECTED.
- HISTORICAL CONTEXT: WE HAVE INCLUDED A LIST OF THE LARGEST
SNOWFALLS IN THE TWIN CITIES IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW THE
FORECAST DISCUSSION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT...POTENT ~980S MB PAC LOW THAT PRODUCED
INCREDIBLE SYNOPTIC WINDS OVERNIGHT (MULTIPLE 60-70 MPH GUSTS
OBSERVED!) IS QUICKLY EXITING TO THE EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY SINCE LAST
NIGHT, THOUGH 20-30 MPH GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. QUIET WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE APPROACH OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
THIS EVENING. NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS TONIGHT, THOUGH FOCUS
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST MN TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS AN INITIAL WARM
ADVECTIVE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE. MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN MN BY
DAYBREAK.
MAJOR WINTER STORM THIS WEEKEND
OVERVIEW...A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE WFO
MPX FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. A LONG DURATION HEAVY SNOW SCENARIO IS SET TO TAKE SHAPE
AS THE TRIFECTA OF RICH PACIFIC MOISTURE, GULF MOISTURE, AND A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A REMARKABLE QPF FOOTPRINT OVER
THE REGION (~1-1.75" LIQUID MOISTURE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA!) WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO A WIDE SWATH OF
DOUBLE DIGIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (10-16"). AS THE WINTER STORM
TAKES SHAPE, A LOCALIZED, NARROW BAND OF THE MOST INTENSE
SNOWFALL RATES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR VERY HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW. LATEST INDICATIONS
ARE THAT THIS BAND WILL SETUP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE MN INTO
WESTERN MN ALONG/NEAR I-94 (INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE THE TWIN
CITIES METRO) AND IT'S INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT PEAK SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL APPROACH 18-20" WITHIN THE BAND. DANGEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND WORSEN OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS RATES INCREASE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INTENSIFY ON SUNDAY, WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PERIODS OF
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND MAY CREATE A NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL
SCENARIO. THE MAJOR WINTER STORM BEGINS TO EXIT SUNDAY EVENING,
HOWEVER TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DANGEROUS INTO
MONDAY AS WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED, PROLONGING BLOWING SNOW
CONCERNS.
TODAY'S FORECAST TRENDS...12Z GUIDANCE HAS ADVERTISED A SLIGHT
NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE MAIN SWATH OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW OWING TO
WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHTLY DEEPER TROUGH ALOFT WHICH YIELDS
A STRONGER SURFACE LOW TAKING A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK ALONG THE
MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE SEVERAL TIMES
THIS COOL SEASON, WE'RE SEEING WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN OVER
CORRECTION WITH A SHIFT TOO FAR TO THE NORTH IN THE LONG RANGE
CAM GUIDANCE (12Z HRRR IN PARTICULAR). WE'LL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON
LEGACY GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THE MACHINE LEARNING (AIFS/AIFS
ENS) SOLUTIONS, WHICH HAVE DISPLAYED A LESS NOTABLE NORTHWARD
SHIFT THAT APPEARS TO BE WITHIN THE EXPECTED ENVELOPE OF
SOLUTIONS. AS A RESULT, THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW IS NOW
FORECAST ALONG AND NEAR THE I-94 CORRIDOR FROM THE TWIN CITIES
INTO WESTERN WI. SHOULD THESE TRENDS CONTINUE, WE'LL LIKELY BE
LOOKING AT WARM NOSE COMPLICATIONS RESULTING IN A WINTRY MIX OF
SNOW/SLEET AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE EVENT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN. WHILE THIS SCENARIO WILL CUT
INTO SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG I-90, SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL
STILL BE EXPECTED. OUR PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS OVER THE NEXT
24-HOURS WILL BE TO MONITOR ANY SHIFTS IN THE CONSENSUS TRACK OF
THE LOW/PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND.
METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW OF THE STORM...GOES-WEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CAPTURES A SHORTWAVE SLOWLY CIRCULATING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA,
NEARING WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. SOUTH OF THE WAVE, WATER VAPOR
DISPLAYS A RIBBON OF RICH PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS. EVIDENCE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT CAN BE
SEEN THIS AFTERNOON ON REGIONAL RADAR DISPLAYS OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS, WHERE THE FIRST SIGNS OF PRECIPITATION ARE ONGOING
NORTH OF A SPRAWLED OUT BAROCLINIC ZONE. OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS, THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO COME ASHORE AHEAD OF A
POWERFUL ~160KT JET STREAK ALOFT AND DEEPEN INTO A LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
TRANSLATE EAST AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. IN RESPONSE, LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL
OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND THE TRANSLATION OF
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SEND THE RESULTANT SURFACE LOW ON A TRACK
FROM CENTRAL IA TO SOUTHERN WI TO CENTRAL MI SUNDAY. MID-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW FRONTOGENIC BAND OF LIGHT SNOW EXTENDING
INTO SOUTHWESTERN MN BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS BAND WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE IMPRESSIVE AND PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS WESTERN MN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. BY SATURDAY
EVENING, STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SUPPORT TOP DOWN
SATURATION AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE PRONOUNCED BAND OF
SNOW, WITH RATES INCREASING AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL IA. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN HEADING INTO SUNDAY AND
BEGIN TO PIVOT TO THE NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED
TRACK DURING THE DAY. FOLLOWING THE CONCEPTUAL MID-LATITUDE
CYCLONE MODEL, A HEAVY DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL
DEVELOP NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL BE THE
DRIVER OF INTENSE PRECIPITATION RATES. TO LITTLE SURPRISE,
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE HEAVIEST BAND INDICATE
STRONG OMEGA FORCING THROUGH THE COLUMN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
DEEPENING DGZ SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DEEPER ANALYSIS OF
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS ILLUSTRATE A STRONG UPRIGHT INSTABILITY
SIGNAL -- ALL OF WHICH SUPPORTS SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2",
TO PERHAPS 3"/HR WITHIN THE MOST INTENSE PERIOD OF THE WINTER
STORM. AND YES, THIS SCENARIO SUPPORTS MENTION OF POTENTIAL
THUNDERSNOW EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WHICH WOULD BE MOST LIKELY
WITHIN THE REGION OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS EASTERN
MN/WESTERN WI.
WHILE ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE QPF FOOTPRINT, EVENT SLR'S HAVE BEEN A BIT TRICKY TO DIAL IN.
MODEL SLR'S HAVE CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISED EVENT RATIOS OF 13-18:1,
WHICH IS LIKELY OVERDONE FOR A FEW REASONS... A LOCAL STUDY
CONDUCTED AT WFO MPX FOUND THAT SLR'S ARE OFTEN CAPPED AROUND
~10:1 OR SO WHEN HEAVY 6-HR QPF IS IN PLAY, SO WE HAVE TRIED TO
INTEGRATE THIS INTO OUR FORECAST GRIDS. OF COURSE, WE'RE STILL
TALKING ABOUT A MAJOR SNOW EVENT WITH A LARGE SWATH OF 10-16" OF
SNOW...BUT WANTED TO DIAL BACK ON THE RATIOS A TAD TO TRY AND
GET OUR STORM TOTAL SNOW FORECAST AS CLOSE TO REALITY AS
POSSIBLE. AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO CUT TO THE ENE ON SUNDAY,
COLD ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AND WILL SUPPORT DRIER RATIOS
RUNNING CLOSER TO 15-16:1 THROUGH THE END OF THE EVENT. DESPITE
A ROUGHLY 5-7K DGZ DEPTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE OTHER COMPLICATING
FACTOR FOR SLR'S WILL BE THE INCREASE IN THE WIND FIELDS THROUGH
THE COLUMN, WHICH WILL LIKELY FRACTURE DENDRITES IN SOME CAPACITY.
ALL OF THIS TO SAY THAT EVEN AFTER TEMPERING SLR'S A BIT, WE
ARE STILL LOOKING AT THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IN A NUMBER OF
YEARS!
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE/COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME AS THE LOW CUTS
NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS TO ~980MB ON SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MN FEATURE 40-50KT WINDS AT THE TOP
OF THE COLUMN SUNDAY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. THE INCREASE IN
WINDS SIGNALS NOTED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AND POTENTIAL BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS SUNDAY. SNOWFALL RATES WILL TAPER TO ~0.5/HR AS
WINDS INCREASE, HOWEVER THE EXPECTED DRIER SNOWFLAKE CHARACTER
WILL BE ABLE TO BLOW AND DRIFT MORE EASILY...SO WHILE THERE ARE
SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT THE "MOBILITY" OF SNOW CHARACTER EARLIER IN
THE EVENT, THE INCREASING SLR SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
BLOWING SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONCERNS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF
THE EVENT. A FUTURE UPGRADE TO BLIZZARD WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH AND WESTERN MN.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...LIGHT SNOW GRADUALLY ENDS SUNDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. NORTHWESTERLY SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST PORTION OF MONDAY, WHICH WILL LIKELY PROLONG BLOWING
SNOW CONCERNS INTO THE COMMUTE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE
WINTER STORM MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGHS REMAIN ON
THE COOLER SIDE IN THE TEENS AND 20S TO OPEN NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER,
WARMER TEMPERATURES (40S) LOOK TO RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF
NEXT WEEK AS LARGE SCALE RIDGING EXPANDS EAST OVER THE NORTHERN
CONUS. WHILE IT'S POSSIBLE BLENDED GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE TOO WARM
GIVEN THE FRESH SNOWPACK, CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH THAT WE'LL
BEGIN THE GREAT MELTING CYCLE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE VFR WITH -SN BECOMING SN LATER
ON FROM WEST TO EAST WITH WINDS INCREASING ACCORDINGLY. WINDS
START OUT LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BECOMING 090-120 AFTER THE FIRST
3-6 HOURS AND GRADUALLY INCREASING TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD. VFR BECOMES MVFR CIGS AS -SN MOVES INTO THE REGION, WITH
TIMING TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST. INTENSITY OF -SN WILL BECOME
SN WITH A SIMILAR CADENCE, AND ONCE WE SEE SN EXPECT IT TO
LINGER FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH VSBY GENERALLY BELOW 1 TO
1/2SM.
KMSP...ADDED IN THE CURRENT TIMING EXPECTED FOR DEGRADING
CIGS/VIS AS -SN BECOMES SN. THERE IS STILL SOME WOBBLE THAT MAY
OCCUR, HOWEVER THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ONCE WE REACH 1/2SM
WE WILL SEE PERIODS OF 1/4SM OR LOWER AND NOT IMPROVE UNTIL
AFTER THE PERIOD IS OVER.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...CHANCE AM IFR BLSN. WIND NW 10-15G30KTS.
TUE...VFR, CHC -SN LATE. WIND NW TO S 5KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND SW 5KTS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
TO PROVIDE SOME HISTORICAL CONTEXT TO THE SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR THIS
WEEKEND, HERE ARE THE 10 LARGEST OBSERVED SINGLE STORM SNOWFALLS IN
THE TWIN CITIES RECORDED HISTORY (1884-PRESENT) AS COLLECTED BY THE
MN STATE CLIMATOLOGY OFFICE.
1. 28.4 INCHES: 1991 OCTOBER 31 - NOVEMBER 3 (HALLOWEEN BLIZZARD)
2. 21.1 INCHES: 1985 NOVEMBER 29 - DECEMBER 1 (THANKSGIVING WEEKEND)
3. 20.0 INCHES: 1982 JANUARY 22 - 23
4. 17.4 INCHES: 1982 JANUARY 20 - 21
5. 17.1 INCHES: 2010 DECEMBER 10 - 11 (DOMEBUSTER)
6. 16.8 INCHES: 1940 NOVEMBER 11 - 13 (ARMISTICE DAY)
7. 16.7 INCHES: 1985 MARCH 3 - 4 (LARGEST MARCH SNOWSTORM)
7. 16.7 INCHES: 1940 MARCH 10 - 14
9. 16.5 INCHES: 1982 DECEMBER 27 - 28
10. 16.0 INCHES: 1917 JANUARY 20 - 21
10. 16.0 INCHES: 1999 MARCH 8 - 9
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT
SUNDAY FOR BENTON-CHISAGO-DOUGLAS-ISANTI-KANABEC-MILLE
LACS-MORRISON-TODD.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT
MONDAY FOR CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-POPE-REDWOOD-
RENVILLE-STEVENS-SWIFT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY
FOR ANOKA-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-DAKOTA-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-
LE SUEUR-MCLEOD-MEEKER-NICOLLET-RAMSEY-RICE-SCOTT-
SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-WASECA-WASHINGTON-
WATONWAN-WRIGHT.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-MARTIN.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY
FOR CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-ST. CROIX.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT
MONDAY FOR BARRON-POLK-RUSK.
DISCUSSION...STRUS
AVIATION...TDH
CLIMATE...MPG
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