507
FXUS63 KMPX 140828
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
328 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- POWERFUL WINTER STORM ARRIVES TODAY WITH THE FIRST RADAR
ECHOES ENTERING SOUTHWESTERN MN THIS MORNING. PEAK INTENSITY
EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY WITH TRAVEL
CONDITIONS BECOMING DANGEROUS TO IMPOSSIBLE. WINTER STORM
WARNING UPGRADES TO BLIZZARD WARNING FOR SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERN
MN AT 9AM SUNDAY.
- FORECAST UPDATES: A SLIGHT BUMP NORTHWARD IN AREA, BUT NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
8''+ WITH MOST ENDING UP SOMEWHERE WITHIN 10-16'' AND THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF 20''+. HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF HIGHEST
AMOUNTS FROM SE MN TO WESTERN WI.
- BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN MN AS WINDS INCREASE, WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 40-50MPH
IN ADDITION TO FALLING SNOW RESULTING IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEEPING THE THEME OF THE PRIOR DISCUSSION AND DUE TO THE NATURE OF
THE FORECAST, THE DISCUSSION WILL BE SPLIT UP INTO A FEW SECTIONS.
OVERVIEW...
OUR PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED WINTER STORM WILL ARRIVE TODAY AND THERE
HAS BEEN RELATIVELY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH THE
MAIN DIFFERENCES BEING A SLIGHT BUMP NORTHWARD IN THE HIGHEST BAND
OF SNOWFALL AND AN UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR SUNDAY ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. THE HIGHEST AMOUNT ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
WITHIN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA STRETCHING FROM THE TWIN CITIES
THROUGH WESTERN WI AND TOWARDS THE UP. QPF WITHIN THE HEAVIEST HIT
AREA COULD APPROACH 2 INCHES AND BASED ON FORECAST SNOW RATIOS OF
AROUND 10:1, THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SNOW AMOUNTS APPROACHING
20+ INCHES IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE 'LOWER' QPF OF 0.75-1 INCH IN
CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL LIKEWISE RESULT IN LOWER ACCUMULATIONS BUT
STILL EASILY WINTER STORM WARNING 6+ INCH LEVEL, WITH FAR SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA POSSIBLY SEEING A BIT OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION MIXING IN
INITIALLY PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF SLEET. THE SLIGHT NORTHWARD BUMP
IN GUIDANCE WOULD PLACE THE HEAVY FOOTPRINT THROUGH THE HEART OF THE
TWIN CITIES METRO, ALTHOUGH FURTHER WOBBLES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE
SYSTEM IS FULLY UNDERWAY BASED ON HOW VARIOUS SETS OF GUIDANCE HAVE
PERFORMED THIS WINTER. TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE,
BECOMING DANGEROUS LATER THIS EVENING AS SNOW RATES INTENSIFY AND
NEXT TO IMPOSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS WINDS INCREASE ALONGSIDE CONTINUED
SNOWFALL. THE STORM LOOKS TO EXIT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TRAVEL
CONDITIONS REMAINING HAZARDOUS INTO MONDAY AS WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST
AND PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW. IF IT ALL POSSIBLE, WE HIGHLY RECOMMEND
AVOIDING ALL TRAVEL ON SUNDAY DURING THE WORST OF THE STORM AND
DOING WHAT YOU CAN TO STAY SAFE.
NOW THROUGH WHEN SNOW ARRIVES...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 'RIBBON' OF MOISTURE RIDING THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET IS EVIDENT ON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING
SPAMMING FROM OREGON/WASHINGTON STATE THROUGH THE NORTHERN US AND
RIDING THE RIDGE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS UPPER LEVEL JET
WILL SLIDE EASTWARDS TOWARDS THE AREA WITH A RELATIVELY BROAD RIGHT
ENTRANCE/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REGION REINFORCING ONGOING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BY THE AFTERNOON. RADAR ECHOES ARE ALREADY SPANNING
FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA ALONG THE LOWER LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WHICH IS
SITUATED UNDERNEATH THE SYNOPTIC FORCING OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS OF NOW. AS WE MOVE FORWARD IN TIME TOWARDS
THIS EVENING, THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS NORTHWARDS AS
THE SURFACE LOW BECOMES EVIDENT OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND THE
UPPER LEVEL JET PLACES A BROAD RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OVER MINNESOTA
AND WISCONSIN BY AROUND 6-7PM. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THESE TWO FEATURES MEET, STARTING OUT RELATIVELY LIGHT
BUT RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG AS THEY DEPART THE EASTERN
ROCKIES. SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY DURING THE EVENING AND CONTINUE TO
REMAIN HEAVY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG
TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SURFACE LOW WHICH LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS IOWA TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN. GUIDANCE ISN'T COMPLETELY SET ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW, WHICH IS WHY THERE ARE STILL SOME WOBBLES
NORTH/SOUTH EXPECTED UNTIL IT ARRIVES, HOWEVER OUR AREA LOOKS TO
FIRMLY PLANT ITSELF WITHIN THE NORTH/NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
SYSTEM IN PRIME POSITION TO SEE HEAVY SNOWFALL.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
HEAVY SNOW WILL BE ONGOING AS WE APPROACH MIDNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA, WITH A BIT OF SLEET POSSIBLY MIXING IN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA WHERE THE 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE COULD EDGE JUST FAR ENOUGH
NORTHWARDS TO INTRODUCE A WARM NOSE, EVIDENT WITHIN MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE I-90 CORRIDOR BY AROUND 5-6AM. THE DGZ IS
SHALLOWER FARTHER TO THE SOUTH/CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW,
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF SLEET OR A WINTRY MIX
OF SNOW/SLEET UNTIL ENOUGH PRECIPITATION FALLS TO COOL THE WARM NOSE
BACK DOWN BELOW FREEZING AND TRANSITIONING THE COLUMN BACK TO SNOW.
THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE WARM NOSE IS ONE OF THE KEY POINTS OF
UNCERTAINTY YET REMAINING WITHIN THE SYSTEM AS IN GENERAL THE
GFS/GEFS MODEL SUITE PUSHES THE WARM NOSE AS FAR NORTH AS MANKATO
WHILE THE STEADY ECMWF/EPS/AIFS BRING IT ONLY TO THE MN/IA BORDER,
WHICH WOULD KEEP THE P-TYPE AS PRIMARILY SNOW THROUGHOUT. REGARDLESS
OF HOW MUCH ICE FALLS, WE STILL ANTICIPATE WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL
EVEN ACROSS THIS REGION DESPITE LOWER SNOWFALL RATES AND MISSING THE
HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOWFALL, WHICH SHOULD SET UP FARTHER NORTH.
SPEAKING OF THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOWFALL, THE SLIGHT NORTHWARD BUMP
WOULD PLACE IT SQUARELY ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES METRO AND INTO
WESTERN WISCONSIN BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST QPF 6 HOUR
WINDOW FROM ROUGHLY 1AM TO 7AM. SNOWFALL RATES COULD EXCEED 2 OR
EVEN 3 INCHES/HR AT TIMES DURING THIS WINDOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG AND BEGINS TO NEGATIVELY TILT AND SURFACE
LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE THERMAL
PROFILE JUST A TAD WARMER THAN YOUR TYPICAL DGZ WHICH RESIDES FROM
ROUGHLY -10 TO -20C, WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT HIGHER QPF WINTER
STORMS OFTEN STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE SNOW RATIOS ABOVE 12 OR 15 TO 1, AS
INTERNAL STUDIES AT MPX HAS SHOWN IN THE PAST. SNOW RATIOS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOVER FROM 8/10 TO 1 DURING THIS WINDOW, WHICH LOOKS TO
PRODUCE 6-8 INCHES OF SNOWFALL WITHIN THE HEAVIEST BAND DURING THESE
6 HOURS ALONE. AS TIME PROGRESSES PAST SUNRISE AND THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG/SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN, CONTINUOUS
HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING UNTIL THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BRING THE
HEAVIEST RATES TOWARDS NORTHERN WI AROUND MIDDAY. BY THE AFTERNOON,
SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SURFACE LOW
AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BOTH SLIDE TO THE EAST, WITH LIGHT SNOW
LINGERING INTO THE LATE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AND INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN WESTERN WI.
AS THE SURFACE LOW IS DISPLACED A BIT FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DUE TO A STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RESULTING FROM FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES EASTWARDS, WITH WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM AS HIGH AS 45-55MPH IN
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TAPERING TOWARDS 30-40MPH IN THE TWIN CITIES AND
25-35MPH IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THIS WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DANGEROUS
TRAVEL EVEN AS SNOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN DUE TO BLOWING, COUPLED WITH
SNOW RATIOS GENERALLY INCREASING AS THE SNOW WEAKENS AS THE ENTIRE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COOLS NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE GUSTY
WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY, MAKING CLEANUP
ALL THE MORE DIFFICULT ON TOP OF THE SHEER AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL
EXPECTED. THE UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA IS DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY GUSTY
WINDS ON TOP OF FALLING SNOW, WITH THE WARNING BEGINNING IN THE LATE
MORNING SUNDAY AND LINGERING INTO MONDAY. WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE THAT IS INCREDIBLY SLOW DUE TO
ONGOING SNOW REMOVAL EFFORTS BEING HINDERED BY THE BLOWING SNOW AND
GUSTY WINDS, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY.
SNOW WILL END EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SUBSIDENCE RAPIDLY FILLING IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW WITH A 1030MB HIGH FORMING BY
MONDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL ALSO BE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY BY THIS
POINT, WITH QUIET CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN RETURNING AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARDS TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...
WE WILL NOT SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER BEHIND THE
SYSTEM AS ANOTHER ALBEIT MUCH WEAKER HIT OF SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL JET SLIDES INTO THE
REGION DRAGGING A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH. THE SETUP IS
OBVIOUSLY MUCH WEAKER THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM AND ALSO MUCH MORE
TRANSIENT WITH A 12 HOUR WINDOW OF LIGHT SNOW RESULTING IN ANOTHER
POTENTIAL INCH OR TWO SPANNING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING
WEDNESDAY. THIS EVENT WRAPS UP QUICKLY REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT STAGNANT
WEATHER WITH NO STRONG SYSTEMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
NBM TRIES TO REBOUND TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY
FRIDAY, HOWEVER THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC GIVEN THE EXPECTED NEW/DEEP
SNOWPACK AND AS SUCH WE MAY END UP IN THE LOW 40S INSTEAD. THE KEY
FACTOR IN SNOWMELT WILL NOT ONLY BE HOURS OF SUN DURING THE DAY BUT
ALSO IF WE STAY ABOVE FREEZING AT NIGHT, THUS CLOUD COVER WILL BE
THE THING TO WATCH TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK TO SEE JUST
HOW WARM WE END UP.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE VFR WITH -SN BECOMING SN LATER
ON FROM WEST TO EAST WITH WINDS INCREASING ACCORDINGLY. WINDS
START OUT LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BECOMING 090-120 AFTER THE FIRST
3-6 HOURS AND GRADUALLY INCREASING TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD. VFR BECOMES MVFR CIGS AS -SN MOVES INTO THE REGION, WITH
TIMING TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST. INTENSITY OF -SN WILL BECOME
SN WITH A SIMILAR CADENCE, AND ONCE WE SEE SN EXPECT IT TO
LINGER FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH VSBY GENERALLY BELOW 1 TO
1/2SM.
KMSP...ADDED IN THE CURRENT TIMING EXPECTED FOR DEGRADING
CIGS/VIS AS -SN BECOMES SN. THERE IS STILL SOME WOBBLE THAT MAY
OCCUR, HOWEVER THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ONCE WE REACH 1/2SM
WE WILL SEE PERIODS OF 1/4SM OR LOWER AND NOT IMPROVE UNTIL
AFTER THE PERIOD IS OVER.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...CHANCE AM IFR BLSN. WIND NW 10-15G30KTS.
TUE...VFR, CHC -SN LATE. WIND NW TO S 5KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND SW 5KTS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
TO PROVIDE SOME HISTORICAL CONTEXT TO THE SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR THIS
WEEKEND, HERE ARE THE 10 LARGEST OBSERVED SINGLE STORM SNOWFALLS IN
THE TWIN CITIES RECORDED HISTORY (1884-PRESENT) AS COLLECTED BY THE
MN STATE CLIMATOLOGY OFFICE.
1. 28.4 INCHES: 1991 OCTOBER 31 - NOVEMBER 3 (HALLOWEEN BLIZZARD)
2. 21.1 INCHES: 1985 NOVEMBER 29 - DECEMBER 1 (THANKSGIVING WEEKEND)
3. 20.0 INCHES: 1982 JANUARY 22 - 23
4. 17.4 INCHES: 1982 JANUARY 20 - 21
5. 17.1 INCHES: 2010 DECEMBER 10 - 11 (DOMEBUSTER)
6. 16.8 INCHES: 1940 NOVEMBER 11 - 13 (ARMISTICE DAY)
7. 16.7 INCHES: 1985 MARCH 3 - 4 (LARGEST MARCH SNOWSTORM)
7. 16.7 INCHES: 1940 MARCH 10 - 14
9. 16.5 INCHES: 1982 DECEMBER 27 - 28
10. 16.0 INCHES: 1917 JANUARY 20 - 21
10. 16.0 INCHES: 1999 MARCH 8 - 9
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT
SUNDAY FOR DOUGLAS-KANABEC-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-TODD.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM CDT
SUNDAY FOR CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-MCLEOD-MEEKER-
POPE-RENVILLE-STEVENS-SWIFT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM CDT MONDAY FOR BLUE
EARTH-BROWN-CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-
MCLEOD-MEEKER-NICOLLET-POPE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-SIBLEY-
STEELE-STEVENS-SWIFT-WASECA-WATONWAN-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM CDT
MONDAY FOR ANOKA-BENTON-CARVER-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-GOODHUE-
HENNEPIN-ISANTI-RAMSEY-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-STEARNS-WASHINGTON-
WRIGHT.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT
SUNDAY FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-LE SUEUR-NICOLLET-REDWOOD-
RICE-SIBLEY-STEELE-WASECA-WATONWAN.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR
FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-MARTIN.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-MARTIN.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY
FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-
RUSK-ST. CROIX.
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...TDH
CLIMATE...MPG
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