925
FXUS63 KMPX 150805
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
305 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER STORM UNDERWAY, WITH OBSERVATIONS AS OF 2AM PEAKING
FROM 5- 6 INCHES SO FAR. PEAK SNOWFALL INTENSITY BETWEEN NOW
AND SUNRISE WITH RATES EXCEEDING 1-2 IN/HR. WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS PEAKING
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT EVEN AS SNOW WINDS DOWN.
TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DANGEROUS THIS MORNING AND
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
- A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE FROM A QUICK SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES RETURN ABOVE FREEZING BY WEDNESDAY, WITH SNOW
MELT INTENSIFYING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
A SWATH OF 5-6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED AS OF AROUND 2AM
THIS MORNING SPANNING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GREATER TWIN CITIES
METRO AREA, WITH REPORTS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY COME IN WITH EVEN
GREATER AMOUNTS ONCE PEOPLE START TO WAKE UP THIS MORNING. RADAR
ECHOES ARE INTENSIFYING OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AS THE LOWER LEVEL
WARM NOSE HAS COOLED ENOUGH SUCH THAT REFLECTIVITY IS RAPIDLY
INCREASING ALONG A LINE FROM REDWOOD FALLS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
METRO AND INTO WESTERN WI ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS INTENSE LOWER LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THIS LINE WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCAL
POINT FOR FURTHER SNOWFALL THIS MORNING WITH RATES EASILY EXCEEDING
1-2 INCH/HOUR AT TIMES. THE SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DIGGING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO EJECT TOWARDS EASTERN IOWA AS WE APPROACH
SUNRISE AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO NEGATIVELY TILT. THIS
SHOULD PLACE THE NORTH/NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM SQUARELY
OVER THE COVERAGE AREA, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL RATES AND RAPID ACCUMULATION. AS THE SURFACE
LOW SLIDES CLOSER LATER THIS MORNING, WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY AS
A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL COUPLE WITH A MIXING
LAYER SHOWING 50-60KTS OF WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE CHANNEL ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, WHICH MAY RESULT IN PEAK GUSTS APPROACHING 50-
60MPH IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WHERE THE GRADIENT WILL BE THE SHARPEST.
WHILE SNOW WILL STILL BE ONGOING AFTER SUNRISE, THE RATES SHOULD
DROP OFF A BIT AS THE INCREASING WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHEAR APART THE
BEST DENDRITES, RESULTING IN LOWER SNOW RATIOS. WITH HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO PRODUCE AN INCH OR MORE QPF FROM 1AM THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENT, ALONGSIDE 8 OR 10 TO 1 SNOW
RATIOS WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY IN
THE DOUBLE DIGITS, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE PEAK SNOW BAND WHICH AS OF
RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO POSITION ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHERN TWIN CITIES
METRO THROUGH EAU CLAIRE. CONSIDERING THE SNOWFALL FORECAST, WHAT IS
EVEN MORE ASTONISHING IS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY FURTHER AS
IT EXITS OUR AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WI TO THE UP LIKELY LOOKING AT PEAK SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2-3FT
FARTHER ALONG IN THIS SYSTEM'S LIFE SPAN. THE SUMMARY IS THAT SO FAR
THIS SYSTEM HAS PERFORMED AS EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT
IN THE PEAK SNOWFALL BAND DUE TO A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY SHIFT IN THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO CAUSE DANGEROUS TO
IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO EARLY
MONDAY.
BY SUNRISE TOMORROW, WINDS ARE STILL LIKELY TO BE GUSTING IN THE 30-
40MPH RANGE WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW AROUND THE FRESH SNOWPACK
RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. EVEN WITH CONSTANT SNOW REMOVAL
EFFORTS, WE EXPECT TO SEE A SLOW AND DIFFICULT COMMUTE AHEAD SO BE
FOREWARNED IF YOU DECIDE TO BRAVE THE CONDITIONS TOMORROW MORNING.
IT ISN'T UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY TOMORROW WHEN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OVERHEAD ON THE HEELS OF THE SYSTEM THAT WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL CEASE, ALLOWING IT TO BEGIN TO SETTLE. ALONGSIDE
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE A BRIEF BURST OF ARCTIC AIR
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY MONDAY
MORNING AND SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO BY TUESDAY MORNING. WE BEGIN TO
REBOUND TEMPERATURE WISE AS ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT AT A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW LOOKS LIKELY TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ENTERS THE REGION BRINGING WARMER PACIFIC AIR
INTO WEDNESDAY. A BROAD LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BRING A BRIEF
6-12 HOURS OF FORCING ALONGSIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW AT MOST. WE RETURN ABOVE FREEZING AS THE SNOW ENDS
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND POSSIBLE 50S BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. NBM LIKELY STILL HAS A WARM BIAS FROM THE RECENT PAST WITH THE
LACK OF A SNOWPACK, SO A KEY FACTOR IN JUST HOW WARM WE WILL GET
WILL BE IF WE MANAGE TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING AND KEEP MELTING
OVERNIGHT AFTER WEDNESDAY, WHICH RIGHT NOW LOOKS POSSIBLE GIVEN LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. THE PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK IS FAIRLY BENIGN, WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET PUSHING INTO
CANADA LEAVING US WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BUT WESTERLY FLOW IN
THE LOWER LEVELS, WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY MEAN UPSTREAM FLOW COMING
FROM THE RELATIVELY WARMER PACIFIC AS OPPOSED TO GULF OF ALASKA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE 06Z TAF COMPARED TO THE 00Z WITH
MINOR TWEAKS TO TIMING OF SNOWFALL AND REDUCED VISIBILITY ACROSS
MANY SITES. WE STILL ANTICIPATE LESS THAN 1SM VIS AND IFR WITH
SN FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS WITH PERIODS OF LIFR, 1/4SM, AND +SN
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THEY SHIFT TOWARDS 340-360 WITH
BLSN BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. SN ENDS AT THE LATEST BY 00Z, WITH BLSN
CONTINUING IFR VSBY UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF. THERE HAS BEEN
NO THUNDER OBSERVED WITHIN THE LAST FEW HOURS, HOWEVER GIVEN THE
STORM DYNAMICS, A BRIEF PERIOD OF TSSN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
MSP/MKT/RNH.
KMSP...WE ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENT NOW WITH OBSERVATIONS
RANGING FROM 1/2 TO 3/4SM ACROSS THE AREA, WITH PERIODS OF 1/4SM
EXPECTED WITH PEAK SNOW INTENSITY FROM ROUGHLY 06-12Z. WE LIKELY
REMAIN IFR DESPITE -SN ENDING FROM 00-03Z DUE TO BLSN, WHICH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR BCMG MVFR/-SN. WIND S TO SE 5-10KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND SW 5KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND SW 5KTS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
TO PROVIDE SOME HISTORICAL CONTEXT TO THE SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR THIS
WEEKEND, HERE ARE THE 10 LARGEST OBSERVED SINGLE STORM SNOWFALLS IN
THE TWIN CITIES RECORDED HISTORY (1884-PRESENT) AS COLLECTED BY THE
MN STATE CLIMATOLOGY OFFICE.
1. 28.4 INCHES: 1991 OCTOBER 31 - NOVEMBER 3 (HALLOWEEN BLIZZARD)
2. 21.1 INCHES: 1985 NOVEMBER 29 - DECEMBER 1 (THANKSGIVING WEEKEND)
3. 20.0 INCHES: 1982 JANUARY 22 - 23
4. 17.4 INCHES: 1982 JANUARY 20 - 21
5. 17.1 INCHES: 2010 DECEMBER 10 - 11 (DOMEBUSTER)
6. 16.8 INCHES: 1940 NOVEMBER 11 - 13 (ARMISTICE DAY)
7. 16.7 INCHES: 1985 MARCH 3 - 4 (LARGEST MARCH SNOWSTORM)
7. 16.7 INCHES: 1940 MARCH 10 - 14
9. 16.5 INCHES: 1982 DECEMBER 27 - 28
10. 16.0 INCHES: 1917 JANUARY 20 - 21
10. 16.0 INCHES: 1999 MARCH 8 - 9
FOR EAU CLAIRE, THE LARGEST EVER SNOWFALL FROM A SINGLE EVENT
IS 22.0" (ALL OF THOSE 22" FELL ON DECEMBER 11TH) THAT FELL
DURING THE "DOMEBUSTER" BLIZZARD BACK IN DECEMBER OF 2010. THIS
MAY BE WITHIN REACH WITH THIS STORM
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY FOR ANOKA-BENTON-CARVER-
CHISAGO-DOUGLAS-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-MILLE LACS-
MORRISON-POPE-RAMSEY-SHERBURNE-STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-
WASHINGTON-WRIGHT.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-
CHIPPEWA-DAKOTA-GOODHUE-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-
MCLEOD-MEEKER-NICOLLET-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-SIBLEY-
STEELE-WASECA-WATONWAN-YELLOW MEDICINE.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-
MARTIN.
WI...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY FOR POLK.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-
DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...TDH
CLIMATE...MPG
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