895
FXUS63 KMPX 151830
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
130 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER STORM UNDERWAY, WITH OBSERVATIONS AS OF 2AM PEAKING
FROM 5- 6 INCHES SO FAR. PEAK SNOWFALL INTENSITY BETWEEN NOW
AND SUNRISE WITH RATES EXCEEDING 1-2 IN/HR. WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS PEAKING
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT EVEN AS SNOW WINDS DOWN.
TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DANGEROUS THIS MORNING AND
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
- A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE FROM A QUICK SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES RETURN ABOVE FREEZING BY WEDNESDAY, WITH SNOW
MELT INTENSIFYING INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
WE'VE STARTED THE PROCESS OF PULLING BACK SOME ON THE BLIZZARD
WARNING. FOR STARTERS, WE LOOKED FOR AREAS WHERE SNOWFALL
THROUGH THIS MORNING WAS LESS THAN 8 INCHES AND WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 45 MPH. THIS LEAD US TO A BIG CHUNK OF
CENTRAL MN TO BE PUSHED DOWN INTO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WE
WERE CONSIDERING PUSHING THE ADVISORY DOWNGRADE ALL THE WAY TO
STEVENS AND LAC QUI PARLE COUNTIES, BUT WILL SEE HOW THAT SNOW
REACTS TO THE WINDS GUSTING TO OVER 40 MPH BEFORE PULLING MORE
COUNTIES OUT OF WEST CENTRAL MN. WE LEFT THE REST OF THE
BLIZZARD WARNING AS IS, WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
EXPECTED TO BE DOWN IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
AROUND ST. JAMES, FAIRMONT, AND BLUE EARTH (CITY).
AS FOR THE FORECAST, AMOUNTS WERE PRETTY SPOT ON, BUT THIS FIRST
BAND OF SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING FELL ABOUT 50-60 MILES
SOUTH OF WHERE WE HAD IT FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE'S A
VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL. AMOUNTS SO FAR GO FROM ABOUT
10 INCHES IN THE CITY OF EAU CLAIRE THAT JUMPS TO NEAR 2 FEET BY
THE TIME YOU GET TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF EAU CLAIRE COUNTY
DOWN BY AUGUSTA AND FAIRCHILD. BIGGEST CONTRIBUTOR TO THE
SOUTHERN SHIFT WAS THE ROUTE THE SURFACE LOW IS TAKING. AS
OPPOSED TO GOING FROM NEAR DES MOINES TO THE MILWAUKEE AREA,
IT'S ON TRACK TO GO FROM KANSAS CITY TO THE NORTH SIDE OF
CHICAGO AND THE SNOW TOTALS WENT WITH. WE WILL END UP WITH A
BAND OF NEAR 2 FEET OF SNOW, BUT AS OPPOSED HITTING THE TWIN
CITIES OVER TO EAU CLAIRE, IT WILL END UP FALLING FROM A LITTLE
NORTH OF ROCHESTER UP TOWARD WAUSAU IN WISCONSIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
A SWATH OF 5-6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED AS OF AROUND 2AM
THIS MORNING SPANNING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GREATER TWIN CITIES
METRO AREA, WITH REPORTS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY COME IN WITH EVEN
GREATER AMOUNTS ONCE PEOPLE START TO WAKE UP THIS MORNING. RADAR
ECHOES ARE INTENSIFYING OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AS THE LOWER LEVEL
WARM NOSE HAS COOLED ENOUGH SUCH THAT REFLECTIVITY IS RAPIDLY
INCREASING ALONG A LINE FROM REDWOOD FALLS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
METRO AND INTO WESTERN WI ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS INTENSE LOWER LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THIS LINE WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCAL
POINT FOR FURTHER SNOWFALL THIS MORNING WITH RATES EASILY EXCEEDING
1-2 INCH/HOUR AT TIMES. THE SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DIGGING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO EJECT TOWARDS EASTERN IOWA AS WE APPROACH
SUNRISE AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO NEGATIVELY TILT. THIS
SHOULD PLACE THE NORTH/NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM SQUARELY
OVER THE COVERAGE AREA, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL RATES AND RAPID ACCUMULATION. AS THE SURFACE
LOW SLIDES CLOSER LATER THIS MORNING, WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY AS
A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL COUPLE WITH A MIXING
LAYER SHOWING 50-60KTS OF WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE CHANNEL ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, WHICH MAY RESULT IN PEAK GUSTS APPROACHING 50-
60MPH IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WHERE THE GRADIENT WILL BE THE SHARPEST.
WHILE SNOW WILL STILL BE ONGOING AFTER SUNRISE, THE RATES SHOULD
DROP OFF A BIT AS THE INCREASING WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHEAR APART THE
BEST DENDRITES, RESULTING IN LOWER SNOW RATIOS. WITH HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO PRODUCE AN INCH OR MORE QPF FROM 1AM THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENT, ALONGSIDE 8 OR 10 TO 1 SNOW
RATIOS WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY IN
THE DOUBLE DIGITS, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE PEAK SNOW BAND WHICH AS OF
RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO POSITION ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHERN TWIN CITIES
METRO THROUGH EAU CLAIRE. CONSIDERING THE SNOWFALL FORECAST, WHAT IS
EVEN MORE ASTONISHING IS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY FURTHER AS
IT EXITS OUR AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WI TO THE UP LIKELY LOOKING AT PEAK SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2-3FT
FARTHER ALONG IN THIS SYSTEM'S LIFE SPAN. THE SUMMARY IS THAT SO FAR
THIS SYSTEM HAS PERFORMED AS EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT
IN THE PEAK SNOWFALL BAND DUE TO A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY SHIFT IN THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO CAUSE DANGEROUS TO
IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO EARLY
MONDAY.
BY SUNRISE TOMORROW, WINDS ARE STILL LIKELY TO BE GUSTING IN THE 30-
40MPH RANGE WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW AROUND THE FRESH SNOWPACK
RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. EVEN WITH CONSTANT SNOW REMOVAL
EFFORTS, WE EXPECT TO SEE A SLOW AND DIFFICULT COMMUTE AHEAD SO BE
FOREWARNED IF YOU DECIDE TO BRAVE THE CONDITIONS TOMORROW MORNING.
IT ISN'T UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY TOMORROW WHEN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OVERHEAD ON THE HEELS OF THE SYSTEM THAT WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL CEASE, ALLOWING IT TO BEGIN TO SETTLE. ALONGSIDE
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE A BRIEF BURST OF ARCTIC AIR
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY MONDAY
MORNING AND SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO BY TUESDAY MORNING. WE BEGIN TO
REBOUND TEMPERATURE WISE AS ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT AT A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW LOOKS LIKELY TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ENTERS THE REGION BRINGING WARMER PACIFIC AIR
INTO WEDNESDAY. A BROAD LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BRING A BRIEF
6-12 HOURS OF FORCING ALONGSIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW AT MOST. WE RETURN ABOVE FREEZING AS THE SNOW ENDS
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND POSSIBLE 50S BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. NBM LIKELY STILL HAS A WARM BIAS FROM THE RECENT PAST WITH THE
LACK OF A SNOWPACK, SO A KEY FACTOR IN JUST HOW WARM WE WILL GET
WILL BE IF WE MANAGE TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING AND KEEP MELTING
OVERNIGHT AFTER WEDNESDAY, WHICH RIGHT NOW LOOKS POSSIBLE GIVEN LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. THE PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK IS FAIRLY BENIGN, WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET PUSHING INTO
CANADA LEAVING US WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BUT WESTERLY FLOW IN
THE LOWER LEVELS, WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY MEAN UPSTREAM FLOW COMING
FROM THE RELATIVELY WARMER PACIFIC AS OPPOSED TO GULF OF ALASKA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO REDUCE WIND GUSTS
SOMEWHAT & THUS VISIBILITIES FROM FALLING & BLOWING SNOW
THROUGH TONIGHT. LIFR CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITY BELOW 1SM ARE
STILL EXPECTED AT MKT/RWF INTO THIS EVENING, WHILE WE STILL
THINK SUB-1SM VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY AT MSP AS THE WINDS PICK
UP THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, VISIBILITIES WILL BE MORE IN THE
IFR (1-3SM) RANGE AS WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO TOP OUT
MORE IN THE 40-45 MPH RANGE, AS OPPOSED TO 45-50+ MPH.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE LOWEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
AS THE LIGHT FALLING SNOW COMBINES WITH THE INCREASING WINDS,
BUT WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE SNOW ENDS
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS EASTERN MN & WESTERN WI. MAINLY MVFR
VISIBILITY & CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT & OVERNIGHT, WITH
ONLY PATCHY & MINOR BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS LIKELY BY TOMORROW
MORNING. CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN MVFR INTO TOMORROW
MORNING, BUT SCATTERING OUT TO VFR DOES LOOK LIKELY AT MOST
TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING & AFTERNOON
KMSP...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES UNTIL 8-10 PM BUT
SNOWFALL RATES DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON & EVENING.
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 25 KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
KTS THIS AFTERNOON, & GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY.
VISIBILITY WILL HOVER AROUND 1SM UNTIL THE SNOW ENDS THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT STILL LOOKS LIKELY TO BE MAINLY LIFR FOR MOST OF
THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY LIKELY IMPROVES TO 3-5SM AS THE SNOW
ENDS & WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE THIS EVENING, BUT WIND GUSTS
NEAR 30 KTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL LEAD TO PATCHY
BLOWING SNOW ISSUES INTO TOMORROW MORNING. GUSTS DECREASE TO
20-25 KTS BY TOMORROW MORNING & STAY THERE THROUGH MONDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR BCMG MVFR/-SN. WIND S TO SE 5-10KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND SW 5KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND SW 5KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY FOR BENTON-
DOUGLAS-ISANTI-KANABEC-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-POPE-SHERBURNE-
STEARNS-TODD-WRIGHT.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY FOR ANOKA-CARVER-
CHISAGO-HENNEPIN-RAMSEY-STEVENS-SWIFT-WASHINGTON.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-
CHIPPEWA-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-KANDIYOHI-LAC
QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-NICOLLET-REDWOOD-
RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-SIBLEY-STEELE-WASECA-WATONWAN-YELLOW
MEDICINE.
WI...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY FOR POLK.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-
DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
UPDATE...MPG
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...ETA
CLIMATE...MPG
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