776
FXUS63 KMPX 160519
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1219 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER STORM WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN THROUGH THE EVENING. WORST
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BETWEEN NOW AND 10PM.
- A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE FROM A QUICK SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES RETURN ABOVE FREEZING BY WEDNESDAY, WITH SNOW
MELT INTENSIFYING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
SURFACE LOW THIS AFTERNOON IS OVER WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS, ON ITS WAY
TO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. 24 HOURS AGO, THIS WAS EXPECTED TO MOVING
UP INTO MILWAUKEE, NOT GARY AND THE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW PULLED THE SNOW SOUTH AS WELL. OUR SNOW AMOUNT FORECAST FROM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WAS PRETTY MUCH SPOT-ON, WITH A NICE BAND OF 24+
INCHES OF SNOW FALLING TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK, BUT WITH THE
LOW GOING FARTHER SOUTH, THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW ENDED UP FALLING 50-
60 MILES SOUTH OF WHERE WE HAD IT. SNOWFALL GRADIENTS IN THIS BAND
ARE PRETTY CRAZY, WITH REPORTS FROM THE CITY OF EAU CLAIRE COMING IN
AROUND 10 INCHES, WHILE SOUTHERN EAU CLAIRE COUNTY DOWN IN THE OSSEO
AND FAIRCHILD AREAS SAW UPWARDS OF 2 FEET OF SNOW.
WITH ALL THAT SAID, WE STILL HAVE AN INTENSE DEFORMATION BAND OF
SNOW THAT STRETCH FROM THE EASTERN TWIN CITIES METRO, ALL THE WAY
DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF NEBRASKA. WE'VE SEEN VISIBILITIES IN
THIS BAND DOWN UNDER 1/4 MILE DOWN IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN, SO IT IS
PUMPING OUT 2" PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. THIS HEAVY SNOWFALL IS ALSO
FALLING WHERE OUR STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY, WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH EXPECTED DOWN AROUND THE FAIRMONT
AREA. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING,
WITH SNOW LINGERING IN OUR FAR EASTERN CWA UNTIL ABOUT 6AM MONDAY
MORNING.
HEADLINE CHANGES...
FOR THE BLIZZARD WARNING, WE TRIMMED IT TO SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER IN
SOUTHWEST MN WHERE WINDS ARE STRONGEST AND WEBCAMS SHOW WE ARE
GETTING VISIBILITIES DOWN AROUND THAT 1/2 MILE THRESHOLD IN OPEN
AREAS. THE BLIZZARD WARNING THEN CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN
AND INTO THE EAU CLAIRE AREA. FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MN, THEY ARE SEEING
THE HEAVIEST SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS,
WITH SOLID BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED DOWN THERE, ESPECIALLY IN
OPEN AREAS. FOR RED WING AND THE SOUTHEAST TWIN CITIES METRO OVER TO
EAU CLAIRE IN WI, MUCH OF THESE COUNTIES HAVE ALREADY SEEN OVER A
FOOT OF SNOW, SO LEFT THE BLIZZARD WARNING IN PLACE GIVEN THE HIGHER
IMPACTS THEY HAVE ALREADY SEEN THERE. THE ONE CHANGE MADE TO THIS
PORTION OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING IS WE PULLED THE END TIME OF THE
WARNING BACK FROM 7AM MONDAY TO 4AM MONDAY GIVEN FASTER DECREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS FORECAST TONIGHT (ANOTHER RESULT OF THE MORE SOUTHERN
STORM TRACK). FOR THE REST OF THE AREA, WE LEFT A STRONG OF WINTER
STORM WARNING IN THE METRO TO ALONG THE US-8 CORRIDOR IN WI WHERE
SNOW WILL FALL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY, BUT SNOWFALL TOTALS HAVE
NOT BEEN AS LARGE AS WHAT WAS SEEN FARTHER SOUTH. AFTER THAT, THE
REST OF MN WAS PULLED DOWN INTO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WHERE WE
ARE GETTING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW, BUT IT IS FALLING WELL SHORT
OF BLIZZARD BAD.
THERE IS ONE HEADLINE WE GET CLOSE TO NEEDING AND THAT'S A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR WEST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN. WE
HAVE MINIMUM WIND CHILLS DROPPING DOWN TO THAT -25F THRESHOLD LATE
TONIGHT, BUT WITH US ONLY SEEING THAT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AND
ONLY BOUNCING AROUND THAT MARK, WE DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING A
MARGINAL COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN MID-MARCH.
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST, NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED. AN IMPRESSIVE
UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEK OVER THE SOUTHWEST US. 500
HEIGHTS WITH THIS RIDGE WILL BASICALLY SMASH ANY SORT OF CLIMATOLOGY
RECORD WE HAVE, WITH HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO EXCEED 590DM, THIS IS
ESSENTIALLY A JULY LEVEL RIDGE SHOWING UP IN MARCH. GIVEN THESE
TRULY MASSIVE HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST, WE'LL SEE THE STORM TRACK
GET SHUNTED NORTH INTO CANADA. WE'LL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE RIDGE,
WHICH MEANS NORTHWEST FLOW THOUGH. AS THE STORM TRACK IS LIFTING
NORTH, WE WILL SEE A QUICK MOVING WAVE DROP THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE A QUICK HITTER, WITH 1-2 INCHES
OF SNOW EXPECTED. THE WARM NOSE WILL ALSO BE IMPINGING ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THIS PRECIP BAND, SO WE COULD SEE A NARROW BAND OF MIXED
PRECIP DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. OTHER THAN THAT, IT'S A QUESTION OF HOW MUCH WE CAN WARM
WITH THE MELTING SNOW PACK IN PLACE. THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE
FRIDAY AS A THERMAL RIDGE MOVES IN AHEAD OF WHAT WILL BE A DRY COLD
FRONT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS 925MB OF 15-18C
COMING INTO SOUTHWEST MN FRIDAY, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
70S IF THE SNOWPACK DOESN'T GET IN THE WAY. FOR NEXT WEEKEND, THE
SPREAD IN THE FORECAST IS HUGE AS YOU'LL FIND SOME MODELS THAT HAVE
US POST FRONTAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S, WHILE OTHERS ARE STILL WARM
SECTORING US WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S INTO THE WEEKEND. AT
LEAST IT LOOKS DRY, BUT IT'S GOING TO TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND TO SETTLE DOWN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY SHOWING HIGHER
VISIBILITY WITH LESS BLOWING SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WHERE WINDS ARE
STRONGER, HOWEVER THIS IS ALSO OUTSIDE OF OUR TAF LOCATIONS
WHICH ARE ALL GENERALLY 6SM OR HIGHER. WE COULD SEE PERIODS OF
INTERMITTENT LOWER VISIBILITY AND MVFR MAINLY AT MKT/EAU/RWF,
HOWEVER WE SHOULD REMAIN VFR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME THROUGH
THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS OF THE TAF. WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER 18Z
WITH GUSTS DISAPPEARING AFTER 00Z. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
FLURRIES FROM AROUND 16-17Z THROUGH 03Z FOR ALL LOCATIONS,
HOWEVER THE CHANCE WAS LOWER THAN EVEN A PROB30 SO KEPT IT OUT
FOR NOW AND WENT WITH SOME LOWER CLOUD DECKS INSTEAD.
KMSP...AS WAS MENTIONED ABOVE, THERE IS A WINDOW FOR SOME
FLURRIES DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING, GENERALLY
NON-IMPACTFUL WITH VISIBILITY STAYING 6SM OR HIGHER. WHILE WE
COULD SEE BRIEF VISIBILITY BELOW 6SM DUE TO BLSN DURING THE
FIRST 6-8 HOURS, THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME WE WILL REMAIN VFR.
SKIES ARE CLEARING GRADUALLY FROM WEST TO EAST BUT WE LIKELY
REMAIN BLOCKED BY LOWER-MID LEVEL CIGS UNTIL THEY SCATTER OUT
LATER IN THE PERIOD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND SW 5KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND SW 5KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND SW TO NW 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
BENTON-CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-MCLEOD-
MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-POPE-RENVILLE-SHERBURNE-
STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WRIGHT.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANOKA-CARVER-CHISAGO-HENNEPIN-RAMSEY-SIBLEY-WASHINGTON.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR BLUE
EARTH-BROWN-DAKOTA-GOODHUE-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-
NICOLLET-REDWOOD-RICE-SCOTT-STEELE-WASECA-WATONWAN-YELLOW
MEDICINE.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR FARIBAULT-
FREEBORN-MARTIN.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MARTIN.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
BARRON-POLK.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-ST. CROIX.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
RUSK.
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...TDH
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